1700954414
1700954415
1 .Physical Review D,035009(2008).
1700954416
1700954417
2 .http://lsag.web.cern.ch/lsag/LSAG-Report.pdf.
1700954418
1700954419
11 这是一项风险差事
1700954420
1700954421
1 .例子可参见:Taibbi, Matt.“The Big Takeover:How Wall Street Insiders are Using the Bailout to Stage a Revolution,”Rolling Stone, March 2009。
1700954422
1700954423
2 .这一点在一些著作中也有提及:J.D.Graham and J.B.Wiener, Risk vs.Risk:Tradeoffs in Protecting Health and Environment(Harvard University Press,1995),especially Chapter 11。
1700954424
1700954425
3 .例子可参见:Slovic, Paul.“Perception of Risk,”Science 236,280-285,no.4799(1987).Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman,“Availability:A heuristic for judging frequency and probability,”Cognitive Psychology 5(1973):207-232.Sunstein, Cass R.,and Timur Kuran.“Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation,”Stanford Law Review 51(1999):683-768.Slovic, Paul“If I Look at the Mass I Will Never Act:Psychic Numbing and Genocide,”Judgment and Decision Making 2,no.2(2007):79-95。
1700954426
1700954427
4 .例子可参见:Kousky, Carolyn, and Roger Cooke.The Unholy Trinity:Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations, RFF Discussion Paper 09-36-REV(November 2009).Kunreuther, Howard, and M.Useem.Learning from Catastrophes:Strategies for Reaction and Response(Upper Saddle River, NJ:Wharton School Publishing).Kunreuther, Howard.Reflections and Guiding Principles for Dealing with Societal Risks, in The Irrational Economist:Overcoming Irrational Decisions in a Dangerous World, E.Michel-Kerjan and P.Slovic, eds.,New York Public Affairs Books 2010.Weitzman, Martin L.,On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change, Review of Economics and Statistics,2009。
1700954428
1700954429
5 .例子可参见:Joe Nocera’s cover story on“Risk Mismanagement”in the New York Times Sunday Magazine, January 4,2009。
1700954430
1700954431
6 .很多经济学家都讨论过这种不可替代性的问题,例如:Arrow, Kenneth J.,and Anthony C.Fisher,“Environmental Preservation, Uncertainty, and Irreversibility,”Quarterly Journal of Economics,88(1974):312-319.Gollier, Christian, and Nicolas Treich,“Decision Making under Uncertainty:The Economics of the Precautionary Principle,”Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 27,no.7(2003).Wiener, Jonathan B.“Global Environmental Regulation,”Yale Law Journal 108(1999):677-800。
1700954432
1700954433
7 .E.g.,Richard Posner, Catastrophe:Risk and Response(Oxford University Press,2004).
1700954434
1700954435
8 .Leonhardt, David.“The Fed Missed This Bubble:Will It See a New One?”New York Times, January 5,2010.
1700954436
1700954437
12 一切都是概率
1700954438
1700954439
1 .Kristof Nicholas.“New Alarm Bells About Chemicals and Cancer”New York Times, May 6,2010.
1700954440
1700954441
15 真、美与其他科学错觉
1700954442
1700954443
1 .Ian Stewart, Why Beauty Is Truth, Basic Books,2007.
1700954444
1700954445
16 希格斯玻色子,宇宙万物为何产生
1700954446
1700954447
1 .On WNYC’s The Takeaway, March 31,2007.
1700954448
1700954449
17 谁才是世界的下一个顶级模型
1700954450
1700954451
1 .http://xxx.lanl.gov/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1101/1101.1628v1.pdf.
1700954452
1700954453
2 .Lisa Randall and Raman Sundrum, Physical Review Letters 83(1999):4690-4693.
1700954454
1700954455
3 .Arkani-Hamed, Nima, Savas Dimopoulos, Gia Dvali, Physics Letters B429(1998):263-272;Arkani-Hamed, Nima Savas Dimopoulos, Gia Dvali, Physical Review D59:086004,1999.
1700954456
1700954457
4 .Randall, Lisa, and Raman Sundrum, Physical Review Letters 83(1999):3370-3373.
1700954458
1700954459
19 内外翻转
1700954460
1700954461
1 .Original short film Powers of Ten by Ray Eames and Charles Eames,1968;Powers of Ten:A Flip Book by Charles and Ray Eames(W.H.Freeman Publishers,1998);also Philip Morrison and Phylis Morrison and the office of Charles and Ray Eames, Powers of Ten:About the Relative Sizes of Things in the Universe(W.H.Freeman Publishers,1982).
1700954462
1700954463
20 君之须弥,我之芥子
[
上一页 ]
[ :1.700954414e+09 ]
[
下一页 ]