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296 有40%都做出了错误的判断：Berner, E. S., & Graber, M. L., (2008). Overconfidence as a cause of diagnostic error in medicine. American Journal of Medicine, 121(5 Suppl.), S2–S23.
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297 七成公司：O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
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297 克里斯托弗·赫雷拉：O’Connor, A. (2013, December 21). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
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297 绿茶提取物用于燃烧脂肪，随后他就出现了严重的肝功能损伤：摘自 O’Connor, A. (2013, December 22). Spike in harm to liver is tied to dietary aids. The New York Times, p. A1.
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298再多的故事也无法构成数据：Sechrest, L., & Pitz, D. (1987). Commentary: Measuring the effecti-veness of heart transplant programmes. Journal of Chronic Diseases, 40(Suppl. 1), 155S–158S.
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299 史蒂夫·乔布斯身上的故事，他拒绝手术：Quora. (n. d). Why did Steve Jobs choose not to effectively treat his cancer? 摘自 http:// www. quora. com/ Steve-Jobs / Why-did-Steve-Jobs-choose-not-to-effectively-treat-his-cancer。
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Walton, A. G. (2011, October 24). Steve Jobs’ cancer treatment regrets. Forbes.
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300 美国国立卫生研究院下设了……分院：National Center for Complementary and Alternative Medicine (NCCAM). (n. d.). 摘自 http:// nccam. nih. gov/。
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300 从替代疗法中获益： 参见 Garg, S. K., Croft, A. M., & Bager, P. (2014, January 20). Helminth therapy (worms) for induction of remission in inflammatory bowel disease. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD009400. 摘自 http:// summaries. cochrane. org/ CD009400 / helminth-therapy-worms-for-induction-of-remission-in-inflammatory-bowel -disease。
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White, A. R., Rampes, H., Liu, J. P., Stead, L. F., & Campbell, J. (2014, January 23). Acupuncture and related interventions for smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD000009. 摘自 http:// summaries . cochrane. org/ CD000009/ do-acupuncture-and-related-therapies-help-smokers-who -are-trying-to-quit。
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300 服用维生素D的150人中：Bjelakovic, G., Gluud, L., Nikolova, D., Whitfield, K., Wetterslev, J., Simonetti, R. G., … Gluud, C. (2014). Vitamin D supplementation for prevention of mortality in adults. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, (1), Art. No. CD007470. 摘自 http:// summaries .cochrane. org / CD007470/ vitamin-d-supplementation-for-prevention-of-mortality-in-adults#sthash . Z6rLxTiS. dpuf。
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300 过量维生素D将指向死亡：Durup, D., Jørgensen, H. L., Christensen, J., Schwarz, P., Heegaard, A. M., & Lind, B. (2012). A reverse J-shaped association of all-cause mortality with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in general practice: The CopD study. The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism, 97(8), 2644–2652.
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Groopman, J., & Hartzband, P. (2011). Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you. New York, NY: Penguin.
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301 4种病人：我在此借鉴了我之前曾出版的文章. Levitin, D. J. (2011, October 9). Heal thyself. [Review of the book Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you by J. Groopman & P. Hartzband]. The New York Times Sunday Book Review, p. BR28.
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302 前景理论与预期效用：参见 Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–292.
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303 场景D将死的可能性转变成绝对的生存：阿莫斯曾经讲了这样一个故事：一位已婚男性已经有两个孩子，他被恐怖分子劫持，并强迫他玩一个类似于俄罗斯轮盘赌的游戏。左轮手枪中装入了不同数量的子弹。囚犯可以付款给劫持者，以此拆出手枪中的一颗子弹。矛盾的是，他必须平衡他生存下来的可能性，以及身无分文地离开他的妻子和孩子的可能性（我们假设，故事是值得尊敬的，游戏一开始，劫持者准确地告诉了他手枪中有多少子弹。只要他玩一次这个游戏，劫持者就会放他走）。
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a. 如果枪里有6颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从6/6变为5/6呢？
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b. 如果枪里有4颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从4/6变为3/6呢？
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c. 如果枪里有1颗子弹的话，你会花费多少来拆除一颗子弹，让死亡的风险从1/6变为0呢？
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在场景c中，我们愿意付出任何代价，将死亡率降至0。我们也可以在场景a中花费相同的代价。但场景b与其他两个场景有所不同。你是将一种可能性变为另一种可能性，而不是将肯定变为可能（场景a），也不是将可能变为肯定（场景c）。
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303 卡尼曼《思考，快与慢》：Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
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303 甚至是可笑的操控：Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1984). Choices, values, and frames. American Psychologist, 39(4), 341–350, p. 341.
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304 5年后，78人死亡：我已经将这些例子简化，以关注重要因素。摘自Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business 59(4 pt 2), S251–S278.
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304 比起原始数字，往往更关注图形：Ferrara, F., Pratt, D., & Robutti, O. (2006). The role and uses of technologies for the teaching of algebra and calculus. In A. Gutiérrez & P. Boero (Eds.), Handbook of research on the psychology of mathematics education: Past, present and future (pp. 237–273). Boston, MA: Sense Publishers.
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Tall, D. (1991). Intuition and rigour: The role of visualization in the calculus. In W. Zimmermann & S. Cunningham (Eds.), Visualization in teaching and learning mathematics: A project (pp. 105–119). Washington, DC: Mathematical Association of America.
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