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我发现，讨厌大政府却喜欢大企业是一件不搭调的事，但反过来则不是。
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你乘坐的洲际航班晚点一个小时、三个小时、六个小时有多少次？提前一个小时、三个小时、六个小时到达又有多少次？这解释了为什么缺陷的程度总是比预计的更严重，而不是更轻微。
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(1) 这是我曾曾曾曾曾祖爷爷提出来的。
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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY
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You are only secure if you can lose your fortune without the additional worse insult of having to become humble.
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To test someone’s robustness to reputational errors, ask a man in front of an audience if he is “still doing poorly” or if he is “still losing money” and watch his reaction.
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Robustness is progress without impatience.
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When conflicted between two choices, take neither.
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Nation-states like war; city-tates like commerce; families like stability; and individuals like entertainment.
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Robust is when you care more about the few who like your work than the multitude who dislike it (artists); fragile when you care more about the few who dislike your work than the multitude who like it (politicians).
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The rationalist imagines an imbecile-free society; the empiricist an imbecile-proof one, or, even better, a rationalist-proof one.
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Academics are only useful when they try to be useless (say, as in mathematics and philosophy) and dangerous when they try to be useful.
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For the robust, an error is information; for the fragile, an error is an error.
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The best test of robustness to reputational damage is your emotional state (fear, joy, boredom) when you get an email from a journalist.
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The main disadvantage of being a writer, particularly in Britain, is that there is nothing you can do in public or private that would da mage your reputation.
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Passionate hate (by nations and individuals) ends by rotation to another subject of hate; mediocrity cannot handle more than one enemy. This makes warring statelings with shifting alliances and enmities a robust system.
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I find it inconsistent (and corrupt) to dislike big government while favoring big business—but (alas) not the reverse.
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How often have you arrived one, three, or six hours late on a transatlantic flight as opposed to one, three , or six hours early? This explains why deficits tend to be larger, rarely smaller, than planned.
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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 竞技谬论和场地依赖(1)
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体育是商品化的、卖淫式的随机性。
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当你在肉体上战胜了一个人时，你得到了锻炼，缓解了压力；当你在网上攻击他时，只不过是在损害你自己。
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