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自动化首先导致了制造业人力需求的大幅下降,目前美国劳动力分布中制造业的就业人员已经低于10%。机器人正在取代人类从事越来越多的工作,而科学家还在研发更加智能的机器人。“十年前是工业机器人协助工人完成任务,而现在(那些留存下来)的工人却只能辅助机器人来完成它们的任务。”那些按照严格自动化流程劳动的工人被称为“肉机器人”(meat robots)。大量的失业工人转向快餐店或大型零售店去寻找工作(尽管薪酬和福利不如从前)。但即使这样的工作也正在流失,因为店面零售行业在网络销售日益兴盛的压力下迅速萎缩。而且像麦当劳这样的快餐店也在引进“数字订餐亭”,这一举措将会淘汰大量收银员。运输驾驶员是另一个可能的就业出路。但像优步和谷歌等公司正在大力投资自动驾驶技术,自动化的冲击也正在波及驾驶员这种传统工作。建筑施工行业也不例外,纽约一家公司推出了一套“激光导引”的施工系统,每天砌砖的数量达到800~1200块,是普通泥瓦工的两倍还多。
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对于低技能的工人来说,仓库的搬运、挑选和放入货架的工作似乎成为一个就业的亮点。亚马逊是全球最大的在线零售商,目前仅美国的分销中心就雇用了九万多名员工。但仓库作业的人力密集型特点也恰恰是吸引自动化的目标要素。2012年亚马逊斥资近八亿美元收购了一家名为科瓦(Kiva)的机器人公司,这种机器人可以代替人工移动货架,每年一个仓库就可节省二千二百万美元,整个公司能节省数十亿美元。在这种激励下,亚马逊目前正在寻求收购或开发系统,取代人工挑选货物。而波士顿一家仓库技术公司Symbotic的自动化创新更为彻底,已经打造出结构和机制全新的仓库,其中根本没有人的空间。文章作者在上海采访了剑桥工业集团。这家公司是中国向人工智能和工业自动化方向迅猛发展的一个缩影。公司的首席执行官黄钢(Gerry Wong)播放着幻灯片向作者讲解人类技术革命的四个历史阶段。他最后打出的一张幻灯片上写着“未来:‘黑暗工厂’”。的确,在不需要工人的未来工厂中,照明是多余的。
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人工智能的发展让劳动变得更为轻松和简单,让生产更有效率,消费更为便捷,但同时也正在导致大量的失业以及更大的贫富差距。这一切给人类社会带来的政治、经济与文化的冲击可能只是刚刚开始,其广泛而深远的挑战意义令人兴奋也发人深省。
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注释
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[1] Maggie Haberman, Glenn Thrush and Peter Baker, “Inside Trump’s Hour-by-Hour Battle for Self-Preservation,” The New York Times, December 10, 2017, Page A1.
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[2] Bella DePaulo, “I study liars. I’ve never seen one like President Trump.” The Washington Post, December 8, 2017.
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[3] Jane C. Timm, “Tracking President Trump’s Flip-Flops,” NBC NEWS, May 12, 2017.
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[4] Eli Stokols, “Trump White House Saw Record Number of First-Year Staff Departures,” The Wall Street Journal, December 28, 2017.
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[5] Dr. Lance Dodes et al., “‘The Most Dangerous Man in the World’: Trump Is Violent, Immature and Insecure, Psych Experts Say,” Newsweek, October 6, 2017.
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[6] James Mann, “The Adults in the Room,” The New York Review of Books (October 26, 2017 Issue).
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[7] Joseph S. Nye, “How Much Does Trump Matter?” Project Syndicate, September 5, 2017.
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[8] Jen Kirby, “Trump has the lowest approval of any modern president at the end of his first year,”Vox, December 21, 2017.
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[9] “Can the Trump boom last? America’s long-running economic expansion,” The Economist, December 14, 2017.
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[10] Ezra Klein, “Out of 42 top economists, only 1 believes the GOP tax bills would help the economy.” Vox, November 22, 2017.
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[11] Annie Lowrey, “The Trickle-Down Mythmaking Begins,” The Atlantic, December 22, 2017.
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[12] Editorial, “The Surrender,” The Weekly Standard, November 2017 Issue.
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[13] Kelefa Sanneh, “A New Trumpist Magazine Débuts at the Harvard Club,” New Yorker, February 25, 2017 Issue; Jeet Heer, “The Pro-Trump Intellectuals Who Want to Overthrow America,” The New Republic, October 5, 2016; Jacob Heilbrunn, “Donald Trump’s Brains,”The New York Review of Books, December 21, 2017 Issue.
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[14] Julius Krein, “I Voted for Trump. And I Sorely Regret It.” The New York Times, August 20, 2017, p. SR1.
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[15] Ailsa Chang (Host), “Julius Krein: ‘I Voted For Trump. And I Sorely Regret It.’” NPR (Morning Edition), August 21, 2017.
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[16] Gabriel Sherman, “Bannon 2020: Is Steve Bannon Going To Run For President?” Vanity Fair, December 21, 2017.
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[17] Herman van Rompuy et al., “Europe’s Reform Opportunity,” Project Syndicate, April 6, 2017.
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[18] Mehreen Khan, “Eurozone economic confidence at almost 17-year high,” Financial Times, October 31, 2017.
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[19] Nicholas Vinocur and Maïa De La Baume, “Emmanuel Macron’s plan to conquer Europe,”Politico, September 26, 2017.
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[20] Jürgen Habermas, “Une rupture dans l’histoire de la République,” Le Monde, April 20, 2017.
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[21] Jürgen Habermas, “What Macron Means for Europe,” Spiegel (Online), October 26, 2017.
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