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[508]我讨论了民主和平的三种主要的制度解释。塞巴斯蒂安·罗萨托指出了另外三个值得一提的解释，尽管没有一个能提供令人信服的因果叙事。第一，民主国家的领导人被认为比威权国家的领导人更谨慎，因为前者对公众更负责，因此如果他们输掉一场战争，将承受更大的代价。罗萨托利用海因·戈曼斯（Hein Goemans）和其他人的研究成果表明，当两种领导人使自己的国家卷入一场失败的战争时，他们付出的代价大致相同。第二，反战利益集团在民主国家的领导人致力于战争的道路上设置了重大障碍。然而，几乎没有证据表明，反战集团比亲战集团更有可能影响自由民主国家的决策者。另外，威权领导人有强烈的动机不发动战争，因为他们通常代表人口的一小部分，而参战通常会释放力量，赋予其他部分人口（如果不是大多数人口）权力，所有这些都可能威胁威权领导人的统治。第三，民主国家被认为不能发动突然袭击，因为他们的决策过程是如此透明。正如罗萨托所指出的，1956年的苏伊士运河战争表明了这一点并非真的：三个民主国家（英国、法国和以色列）计划对埃及发动协调一致的攻击，这不仅让埃及感到意外，也让美国感到意外。而且，大多数战争并不是以突然袭击开始的。Sebastian Rosato，“The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory，”American Political Science Review 97，no.4（No-vember 2003）：585—602.
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[509]约翰·欧文写道：“我发现，民主结构几乎与阻止国家开战一样有可能驱使国家开战。”Owen，“How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace，”p.91.也可参见Bruce Russett, Controlling the Sword：The Democratic Governance of National Security（Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press，1990），p.124。
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[510]Russett, Controlling the Sword, p.124.也可参见William J.Dixon，“Democracy and Peaceful Settlement of International Settlement，”American Po-litical Science Review 88，no.1（March 1994）：14—32；Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett，“Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace，1946—1986，”American Political Science Review 87，no.3（September 1993）：624—638；Rus-sett, Grasping the Democratic Peace；Weart, Never at War。
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[511]Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, p.33.
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[512]Doyle，“Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs，”part 1，p.213.
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[513]Doyle，“Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs，”part 1，p.213.
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[514]Owen，“How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace，”p.89.
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[515]Stephen Van Evera，“American Intervention in the Third World：Less Would Be Better，”Security Studies 1，no.1（August 1991）：1—24.
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[516]John B.Judis，“Clueless in Gaza：New Evidence That Bush Under-mined a Two-State Solution，”New Republic, February 18，2013；David Rose，“The Gaza Bombshell，”Vanity Fair, March 3，2008；Graham Usher，“The Democratic Resistance：Hamas, Fatah, and the Palestinian Elections，”Journal of Palestine Studies 35，no.3（Spring 2006）：20—36.
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[517]Rosato，“The Flawed Logic of Democratic Peace Theory，”p.591.罗萨托指出，美国政府在世界各地进行秘密干预的一个原因是，它试图对自己的公众隐瞒这种干预。林赛·奥罗克提出了同样的观点，Lindsey O’Rourke, Covert Regime Change：America’s Secret Cold War（Ithaca, NY：Cornell Univer-sity Press，2018）。
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[518]Christopher Layne，“Kant or Cant：The Myth of the Democratic Peace，”International Security 19，no.2（Fall 1994）：5—49.
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[519]Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars：A Moral Argument with Histori-cal Illustrations（New York：Basic Books，2007）.
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[520]多伊尔赞同用康德的话来表述这一点。Doyle，“Kant, Liberal Lega-cies, and Foreign Affairs，”part 2，p.344.正义战争理论与民主和平论的重叠体现在下面这本书中：John Rawls, The Law of Peoples：With“The Idea of Pub-lic Reason Revisited”（Cambridge, MA：Harvard University Press，1991）。例如，罗尔斯对正义战争理论的讨论依赖于Walzer’s Just and Unjust Wars。参见Rawls, The Law of Peoples, pp.94—105。
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[521]Alexander B.Downes, Targeting Civilians in War（Ithaca, NY：Cornell University Press，2008），p.3.对于民主国家杀害大量平民的进一步证据，参见Robert A.Pape, Bombing to Win：Air Power and Coercion in War（Ithaca, NY：Cornell University Press，1996）；Benjamin Valentino, Paul Huth, and Dy-lan Balch-Lindsay，“‘Draining the Sea’：Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare，”International Organization 58，no.2（Spring 2004）：375—407。
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[522]John Tirman, The Deaths of Others：The Fate of Civilians in America’s Wars（New York：Oxford University Press，2011），引用封底文字。
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[523]Geoffrey P.R.Wallace, Life and Death in Captivity：The Abuse of Prisoners during War（Ithaca, NY：Cornell University Press，2015）.
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[524]Doyle，“Liberalism and World Politics，”p.1159.也可参见Larry Dia-mond，“Facing Up to the Democratic Recession，”Journal of Democracy 26，no.1（January 2015）：141—155；Ethan B.Kapstein and Nathan Converse, The Fate of Young Democracies（New York：Cambridge University Press，2008）；Juan J.Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation：Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe（Baltimore：Johns Hopkins University Press，1996）；Ko Maeda，“Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown：A Competing Risk Analysis of Democratic Durability，”Journal of Politics 72，no.4（October 2010）：1129—1143；Dan Slater, Benjamin Smith, and Gautam Nair，“Economic Origins of Democratic Breakdown？The Redistribu-tive Model and the Postcolonial State，”Perspectives on Politics 12，no.2（June 2014）：353—374。
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[525]事实上，三位著名学者认为当代“美国有倒退的危险”。Robert Mick-ey, Steven Levitsky, and Lucan A.Way，“Is America Still Safe for Democra-cy？”Foreign Affairs 96，no.3（May/June 2017）：20—29.也可参见Steven Lev-itsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die（New York：Crown，2018）。
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[526]Jonathan Kirshner, Appeasing Bankers：Financial Caution on the Road to War（Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press，2007）；Beth Simmons，“Pax Mercatoria and the Theory of the State，”in Economic Interdependence and Inter-national Conflict, ed.Edward D.Mansfield and Brian M.Pollins（Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press，2003），pp.31—43；Etel Solingen，“Internationali-zation, Coalitions, and Regional Conflict and Cooperation，”in Mansfield and Pollins, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict, pp.60—68.
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[527]Norman Angell, The Great Illusion：A Study of the Relationship of Mili-tary Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage（London：William Heinemann，1910）.
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[528]Richard N.Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State：Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World（New York：Basic Books，1986）.
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[529]Erik Gartzke，“The Capialist Peace，”American Journal of Poltical Sci-ence 51，no.1（January 2007）：166—191；Erik Gartzke, Quan Li, and Charles Boehmer，“Investing in the Peace：Economic Interdependence and International Conflict，”International Organization 55，no.2（Spring 2001）：391—438.
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[530]Patrick J.McDonald, The Invisible Hand of Peace：Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory（New York：Cambridge University Press，2009），p.5.
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[531]Stephen G.Brooks, Producing Security：Multinational Corporations, Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Conflict（Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press，2005）.
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[532]Dale C.Copeland，“Economic Interdependence and War：A Theory of Trade Expectations，”International Security 20，no.4（Spring 1996）：5—41；Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War.
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