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少了一块蹄铁,丢了一匹战马;
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少了一匹战马,丢了一个骑手;
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少了一个骑手,丢了一场胜利;
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少了一场胜利,丢了一个国家;
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所以一切都是因为丢了一颗马蹄钉。
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举个例子,有人可能认为英国和法国应该在1936年希特勒重新军事化莱茵兰时直接面对希特勒,而不是等到1939年才在波兰问题上面对希特勒。毕竟,1939年的国防军比1936年更强大。这个例子指出,“少了一颗钉子”的逻辑适用于涉及“最高紧急情况”的案例。对于一个国家而言,在一个潜在的、危险的敌人变成一个真实存在的威胁之前应对它是有道理的,而不是等到发现自己陷入困境时。
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[540]Dale C.Copeland,“The Constructivist Challenge to Structural Realism:A Review Essay,”International Security 25,no.2(Fall 2000):187—212;Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War, pp.39—42;Copeland, The Ori-gins of Major War, pp.15,22,29;Dale C.Copeland,“Rationalist Theories of International Politics and the Problem of the Future,”Security Studies 20,no.3(July-September 2011):441—450.
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[541]“雨天”逻辑不同于“少了一颗钉子”的逻辑。根据雨天的逻辑,目前没有证据表明某个特定国家是威胁,但总有可能它在未来成为威胁。根据“少了一颗钉子”的逻辑,另一个国家是威胁,但还不是一个真正的威胁。然而,这个国家也有可能成为致命的威胁。这种逻辑是预防性战争的基础。
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[542]民族主义是当代中国特别强大的力量,它可能对中国决策者和公众如何全面思考国际政治产生重大影响。参见William A.Callahan, China:The Pessoptimist Nation(New York:Oxford University Press,2010);Peter Hays Gries, China’s New Nationalism:Pride, Politics, and Diplomacy(Berkeley:U-niversity of California Press,2004);Christopher R.Hughes, Chinese National-ism in the Global Era(London:Routledge,2006);Christopher Hughes,“Re-classifying Chinese Nationalism:The Geopolitik Turn,”Journal of Contemporary China 20,no 71(September 2011):601—620;Zheng Wang, Never Forget Na-tional Humiliation:Historical Memory in Chinese Politics and Foreign Relations(New York:Columbia University Press,2012);Suisheng Zhao, A Nation-State by Construction:Dynamics of Modern Chinese Nationalism(Stanford, CA:Stan-ford University Press,2004);Suisheng Zhao,“Foreign Policy Implications of Chinese Nationalism Revisited:The Strident Turn,”Journal of Contemporary China 22,no.82(July 2013):535—553.
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[543]Robert A.Pape,“Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work,”Interna-tional Security 22,no.2(Fall 1997):90—136.
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