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如前所述,支持文明范式的论据是相当单薄的。正如鲁斯伯姆所说,“占主导地位的乃是经过新的高超诠释的均势理论。鼓舞人心的是亨利(基辛格)不是山姆(亨廷顿),是梅特涅不是韦伯。”“亨廷顿关于文明冲突的预言只是反映了冷战后外交范式的匮乏,而决不是新的乔治·凯南式的千年洞察。”(76)沃尔特则写道:“在一定意义上,文明范式提供的是一个危险的、能够自我实现的预言:我们越是相信它,把它作为行动的基础,它就越可能变为现实。”(77)
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亨廷顿下面的话对于我们科学、全面地评价他的文明范式不无裨益:任何一种范式都不可能永远说明问题。文明方法有助于理解20世纪初的国际政治,并不意味着它同样有助于理解20世纪中叶或21世纪中叶的国际政治(78)。
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(1) Joseph Nye, “The Transformation of World Power”, Dialogue, No. 4, 1990; “Soft Power”, Foreign Policy, Fall 1990; Bound to Lead: the Changing Nature of American Power, Basic Books-Harper Collins Publishers, 1990.
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(2) Joseph Nye, “Soft Power”.
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(3) Joseph Nye, “The Transformation of World Power”.
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(4) Joseph Nye, “Soft Power”.
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(5) Joseph Nye, “Soft Power”.
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(6) Joseph Nye, “The Transformation of world Power”.
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(7) 王沪宁:“作为国家实力的文化:软权力”,《复旦学报》(社科版),1993年第3期。
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(8) Joseph Nye, “Soft Power”.
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(9) Joseph Nye, Bound to Lead, p. 32.
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(10) Joseph Nye, “Soft Power”; Bound to Lead, p. xi.
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(11) Joseph Nye, “The Transformation of World Power”.
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(12) 同上。
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(13) 1996年以后关于“软权力”的主要文章有:Joseph Nye and William Owens, “America’s Information Edge” (1996); Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye, “Power and Interdependence in the Information Age” (1998); Joseph Nye, “The National Interest in the Information Age” (1999); Joseph Nye, “Hard Power, Soft Power” (1999).
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(14) Nye and Owens, “America’s Information Edge”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 1996.
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(15) Keohane and Nye, “Power and Interdependence in the Information Age”, Foreign Affairs, September-October 1998.
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(16) 同注(14)。
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(17) Nye, “The National Interest in the Information Age”, Foreign Affairs, July-August 1999.
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(18) Keohane and Nye, “Power and Interdependence in the Information Age”, Foreign Affairs, September-October 1998.
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(19) 同上。
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(20) Nye, “Hard Power and Soft Power”, The Boston Globe, August 6, 1999.
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(21) Nye and Owens, “America’s Information Edge”, Foreign Affairs, March-April 1996.
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(22) 同上。
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(23) 同上。
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