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[6] Fenby,Will China Dominate the21st Century?p.26.
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[7] “Living up to the title,“Beijing Review,May22,2014,p.2;Daniel Gross,“Yes we can still market
:Why US brands remain the world’s most valuable,“The Daily Beast,June1,2014.
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[8] Alexandra Raphel,“American economic power in decline?Rethinking the data in the context of globalization,“Journalist’s Resource,February11,2014.
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[9] Neil Irwin,“This one number explains how China is taking over the world,“Washington Post.com,December3,2013;“The once and future currency,“The Economist,March8,2014,p.80.
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[10] South Reviews editorial,reprinted in Beijing Review,March27,2014,p.10.
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[11] Toshiya Tsugami,“The future growth of China and security in East Asia,“paper presented to SPF-CSIS Joint Commission on the US-Japan Alliance,June24,2013.
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[12] Sam Roberts,“In2025,India to pass China in population,US estimates,“New York Times,December16,2009.
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[13] Richard McGregor,The Party
:The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers(New York
:Harper Collins,2010),p.30.
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[14] James Steinberg and Michael O’Hanlon,Strategic Reassurance and Resolve
:US-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century(Princeton
:Princeton University Press,2014),pp.93,184.
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[15] Evan Braden Montgomery,“Contested primacy in the Western Pacific,“International Security38,Spring2014,pp.115-149.
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[16] Jacques,When China Rules the World,p.12.
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[17] David C.Kang,“Hierarchy in Asian international relations
:1300-1900,“Asian Security,1/1,2005,pp.53-79.See also Stefan Halper,The Beijing Consensus
:How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century(New York
:Basic Books,2010).
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[18] John Ikenberry,“The rise of China and the future of the West,“Foreign Affairs87/1,January/February2008,pp.23-38.
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[19] Robert Kagan,“What China knows that we don’t
:The case for a new strategy of containment,“The Weekly Standard,January20,1997.Robert Kaplan,Asia’s Cauldron
:The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific(New York
:Random House,2014).
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[20] Steinberg and O’Hanlon,Strategic Reassurance and Resolve,p.20.
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[21] For a detailed analysis,see Bill Emmott,Rivals
:How the Power Struggle Between China,India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade(New York
:Harcourt,2008).
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[22] Yan Xuetong,“How China can defeat America,“New York Times,November21,2011.
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[23] Fareed Zakaria,“Obama needs to lead with feeling,“Washington Post,May8,2014.
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[24] Carla Norrlof and Simon Reich,“What would Kindleberger say
:The US and China as world economic leaders and stabilizers,“unpublished paper,2014.
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美国世纪结束了吗？ 第五章 绝对衰落：美国会像罗马一样吗？
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我们是罗马人吗？卡伦·墨菲以一本颇受欢迎的书的书名提出了这个问题，他的结论是“也许是吧”。[1]罗马没有屈服于另一个帝国的崛起。但正如我们前面所看到的，它遭受了社会、经济以及架构上的绝对衰落，以至于无法保护自己免受野蛮部落的入侵。一些分析家们认为，对外部使用武力的代价就是削弱内部的经济，从而因“帝国的过度扩张”导致绝对衰落。[2]迄今为止，这个理论与美国的历史并不般配，因为在过去几十年里，国防和外交事务的支出在GDP中所占的份额一直在下降。
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尽管如此，美国的相对实力可能仍会衰落。不是因为“帝国的过度扩张”，而应归于国内原因。当人们对自己的文化和制度失去信心时，罗马就从内部开始腐烂了：精英们为争夺控制权相互争斗，腐败增加，经济未能增长。[3]美国会不会因为国内的文化冲突、体制崩溃和经济停滞而失去它对世界事件的影响力呢？如果经济失败，美国将失去它的硬实力和软实力，即使美国继续保持可观的军事、经济和软实力的资源，但它可能缺乏将这些资源转化为有效影响力的能力。
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