打字猴:1.70324046e+09
1703240460
1703240461 [8]Haass,War of Necessity,War of Choice;for President Bush’s account of what led up to his decision,see George W.Bush,Decision Points(New York:Crown,2010),especially chap.8.
1703240462
1703240463 [9]Walzer,Just and Unjust Wars,74-85.
1703240464
1703240465 [10]For background,see Avner Cohen,Israel and the Bomb(New York:Columbia University Press,1998).
1703240466
1703240467 [11]For background,see George Perkovich,India’s Nuclear Bomb:The Impact on Global Proliferation(Berkeley,CA:University of California Press,1999);Ashley J.Tellis,India’s Emerging Nuclear Posture:Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal(Santa Monica,CA:RAND,2001);and Jasjit Singh,ed.,Nuclear India(New Delhi:Knowledge World,1998).
1703240468
1703240469 [12]Arnold Kanter and Brent Scowcroft,“Korea:Time for Action,”Washington Post,June15,1994,https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1994/06/15/korea-time-for-action/73e7cb5b73e9-4503-916f-9b601b67087d/;Richard N.Haass,“Keep the Heat on North Korea,”The New York Times,June17,1994.
1703240470
1703240471 [13]Dennis Ross,“Nothing in the Middle East Happens by Accident—Except When It Does,”The Washington Institute,December7,2015,http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/nothing-in-the-middle-east-happens-by-accident-except-when-itdoes.
1703240472
1703240473 [14]“Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,”July14,2015,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/245317.pdf.
1703240474
1703240475 [15]“Adoption of the Paris Agreement,”December12,2015,UN Framework Convention on Climate Change https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf.
1703240476
1703240477 [16]See Adam Segal,The Hacked World Order:How Nations Fight,Trade,Maneuver,and Manipulate in the Digital Age(New York:PublicAffairs,2016).
1703240478
1703240479 [17]“Safe Harbor Privacy Principles,”July21,2000,Council of Europe,https://www.coe.int/t/dghl/standardsetting/dataprotection/National%20laws/USA SAFE%20HARBOR%20PRIVACY%20_PRINCIPLES.pdf.
1703240480
1703240481 [18]The White House,International Strategy for Cyberspace:Prosperity,Security,and Openness in a Networked World(May2011),8,https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/international strategy for c_yberspace.pdf.
1703240482
1703240483 [19]“FACT SHEET:President Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States,”September25,2015,The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-presidentxi-jinpings-state-visit-united-states.
1703240484
1703240485 [20]“EU-U.S.Privacy Shield Principles,”February23,2016,U.S.Department of Commerce,https://www.commerce.gov/sites/commerce.gov/files/media/files/2016/eu us_privacy shield full_text.pdf.pdf.
1703240486
1703240487 [21]World Health Organization,International Health Regulations(2005),2nd ed.(June15,2007),http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/43883/1/9789241580410en_g.pdf.
1703240488
1703240489 [22]“Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization,”April15,1994,World Trade Organization,https://www.wto.org/english/docs e/legal e/04-wto.pdf.
1703240490
1703240491 [23]For data see World Trade Organization Statistical Program(Time Series data)for total world merchandise trade,http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WSDBStatProgramHome.aspx?Language=E.
1703240492
1703240493 [24]“Financial Stability Board Charter,”September25,2015,Financial Stability Board,http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/r090925d.pdf?page moved=1.
1703240494
1703240495 [25]Two books give the world’s government relatively high marks for their performance in this area.See Daniel W.Drezner,The System Worked:How the World Stopped another Great Depression(Oxford:Oxford University Press,2014);and Padma Desai,From Financial Crisis to Global Recovery(New York:Columbia University Press,2011).
1703240496
1703240497 [26]1英里≈1.609千米。——编者注
1703240498
1703240499
1703240500
1703240501
1703240502 失序时代:全球旧秩序的崩溃与新秩序的重塑 [:1703239767]
1703240503 失序时代:全球旧秩序的崩溃与新秩序的重塑 第六章 区域秩序的多棱镜
1703240504
1703240505 我们可以像通过多棱镜观察物体一样从不同角度细看和理解这个世界。此前的章节从大国关系和全球治理这两个镜面观察我们所在的世界,本章选择的角度是区域。许多最重要的经济、军事和外交关系都发生在这一层面,原因很简单:地缘关系非常重要。有许多国家因为全球覆盖度或相对权重不够,所以在全球的影响不大,但是对邻国却有很大的影响;同时,它们也明显受到这些邻国的影响。在区域问题上,我要补充一点:不同区域的情势差异很大。全球层面的秩序因事而异,同样,各个区域的秩序也各不相同。
1703240506
1703240507 后冷战时代的第一次重大考验发生在中东地区。在美国领导下,由多个国家组成的国际联盟负责实施联合国安理会的决议,挫败伊拉克武力夺取科威特的意图,恢复这一区域的秩序。这一由权威主义统治者领导的区域由20多个阿拉伯国家组成,秩序指它们的领土边界大多被接受为事实,即使没有签署正式协议。这20多个国家面貌各异,有相对贫穷、人口众多的埃及,也有波斯湾几个非常富有的城市国家。以色列是一个“异类”。这个犹太国家在1948年成立时,已经与埃及达成法律上的和平,与约旦达成事实上的和平,与叙利亚处于非战争状态。尚未解决的问题和经常性摩擦之源是以色列与巴勒斯坦的关系,尤其是在1967年战争之后生活在以色列控制地区的巴勒斯坦人。到目前为止,以色列是中东地区实力最强的国家,也是唯一拥有核武器的国家。伊朗是第二个“异类”,这个主要人口为伊斯兰教什叶派的波斯国位于由阿拉伯人和逊尼派控制的地区,从1979年革命以来实行政教合一,一直通过直接支持周边各种代理力量和什叶派来扩大在整个地区的影响。但是,在20世纪80年代与伊拉克长达10年的战争中,伊朗的实力已被大大削弱,无法对区域稳定构成严重挑战。此外,伊朗被伊拉克有效制衡。事实上,美国在1991年的“沙漠风暴行动”中做出决定,要保持伊拉克大部分军队和空军,以便能延续这种平衡局面。
1703240508
1703240509 中东地区的主要外部影响力量是美国,这表现在美国成功地领导多国部队解放科威特,对以色列和埃及、约旦等阿拉伯国家给予大量实质性经济和军事支持,并在该地区保留驻军,其中大部分是为了确保萨达姆切实遵守仍在生效的各种国际制裁,不再威胁或攻击邻国。影响美国区域政策的因素有:目前和预计未来美国对该地区石油的依赖度、对以色列和更温和的阿拉伯政府的支持。这一区域不再有“二战”后头10年里美国与欧洲之间以及随后30年里美苏之间的大国角力。
[ 上一页 ]  [ :1.70324046e+09 ]  [ 下一页 ]