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这些欧洲趋势可能引发多个急剧性后果。“左翼”和右翼中的民族主义政党在数量和力量上都有所增加，造成的后果是：欧洲并不是在集权式“欧洲合众国”和分权式“联合欧洲”之间选择，而是在分权式联合欧洲和更加分散、以国家为主体的欧洲之间选择。许多欧洲国家的民众对欧盟的支持意愿大降，而近年来地缘政治的回归令事态进一步雪上加霜，这也构成了欧洲的另一个难题。我不是指与南斯拉夫分裂有关的问题，此类问题大多只是这一难题的产物，不会更持久；我也不是指恐怖主义，虽然欧洲的恐怖活动也增加了。最具相关性的是俄罗斯征服克里米亚，公然干涉乌克兰东部，并且形成对几个邻近小国的潜在威胁。在短短两年多的时间里，欧洲从全球联合度最高、最稳定的地区和最接近“历史终结”的理想局势蜕化成一个高风险的地区，可怕的历史似乎有重现之势。
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在冷战结束后的25年里，拉丁美洲在许多方面基本都向好的方向发展，值得褒扬。其原因与冷战结束关系不大，因为这一区域不是东西方角力的主要场所，所以是明显的几个例外之一。真正的动因来自该地区自身的变化。一些国家成功地从权威主义转变为民主制度，市场经济日益壮大。智利和墨西哥尤为突出。哥伦比亚在美国的大力援助下击败了一次大型游击队运动，到2016年年初，游击队在军事上被打败，准备接受和平条件。巴西帮助数百万人脱离了贫困，取得了重大进步。拉丁美洲的区域经济增幅超过400％。阿根廷在多年暴政之后，到2015年年底开始出现转机。即使古巴这样抵制市场经济的国家，看起来也比以前更开放——冷战结束后，它失去了长期庇护者的支持。
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拉丁美洲并非没有自己的挑战和问题。委内瑞拉的专制统治已有十多年，经济过度依赖石油；中美洲的犯罪、毒品和政府软弱腐败造成各种问题相互交织；墨西哥同样面临毒品、犯罪、司法制度不良、不平等以及中央政府无力实现全国秩序等挑战；巴西深受地方腐败、政府机构臃肿、债务沉重和经济萎缩压力之苦。但是，令人震惊的是，整个拉美地区都缺乏绝对和相对地缘政治，很少花费用在对外作战上，而维持内部安全的花费更多。这里没有核扩散的威胁：阿根廷和巴西早就放弃了核计划，《特拉特洛尔科条约》（Treaty of Tlatelolco）禁止该区域拥有核武器。[36]有争议的边界很少，国家之间冲突的威胁也小。这一有利局面源于许多原因，其中之一是拉丁美洲的区域组织、美洲国家组织（Organization of American States）都不强硬，在采取行动前必须达成一致意见，结果往往是不行动。这一地区确实面临着问题和挑战，但几乎都无外乎政府功能、经济和国家能力建设。
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非洲有50多个国家，和拉丁美洲、中东地区有共同点，许多非洲国家也取得了令人瞩目的进步。南非和平结束了种族隔离，是一大成就，尽管后来不少事态的发展令人失望；卢旺达人在经历巨大的国家灾难之后再次汇聚到一起，是一个正面的典型；博茨瓦纳、佛得角、肯尼亚、纳米比亚和塞内加尔等国家在治理措施和经济竞争力上成绩较突出。非洲总体经济增长约500％，当然，这一数字也反映出经济的低起点和大宗商品的扭曲效应，还掩盖了国家内部和国家之间的巨大不平等。
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与拉丁美洲一样，非洲最主要的问题在于政治治理及经济和社会发展。腐败很普遍，但总体没有传统的地缘政治问题。中国在这里取得了一些经济进展，但也了解外国在此能够达到的上限；很少有强国威胁弱势邻国独立性的情况；最紧迫的挑战大多来自国内，而不是发生在国家之间；没有核扩散的威胁。对秩序的威胁主要来自少数群体的分裂活动、多数群体对少数群体的压制、部落和宗教冲突、难民流动和恐怖组织。我并不是在为非洲发生的多次长期内战、种族灭绝和镇压等问题裹上一层糖衣，而是说大部分非洲大陆都不是大国竞争或传统战争的发生地。
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[1]Mahmoud Abdel-Fadil,et al.,Arab Human Development Report
:Challenges to Human Security in the Arab Countries(New York
:United Nations Publications,2009),http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/ahdr/ahdr2009e.pdf.
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[2]“Statement of President Barack Obama on Egypt,”February10,2011,The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2011/02/10/statement-president-barack-obama-egypt.
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[3]UN Security Council,Resolution1973,March17,2011,http://www.undocs.org/S/RES/1973(2011).
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[4]The phrase“leading from behind”was first articulated by an unnamed Obama-administration official in Ryan Lizza,“The Consequentialist
:How the Arab Spring Remade Obama’s Foreign Policy,”The New Yorker,May2,2011,http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/02/the-consequentialist.
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[5]See Alan J.Kuperman,“Obama’s Libya Debacle
:How a Well Meaning Intervention Ended in Failure,”Foreign Affairs94,no.2(March/April2015),https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/obamas-libya-debacle.For an account of decision-making,see Jo Becker and Scott Shane,“Hillary Clinton,‘Smart Power’and a Dictator’s Fall,”The New York Times,February27,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html.
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[6]Jeffrey Goldberg,“The Obama Doctrine,”The Atlantic,April2016,http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obamadoctrine/471525/.
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[7]“Statement by President Obama on Syria,”August18,2011,from Macon Phillips,“President Obama
:‘The future of Syria must be determined by its people,but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way,’”White House Blog,August18,2011,https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syriamust-be-determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad.
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[8]Barack Obama,“Remarks by the President to the White House Press Corps,”(speech,Washington,DC,August20,2012),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps.
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[9]Barack Obama,“Statement by the President on Syria,”(speech,Washington,DC,August31,2013),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/31/statement-president-syria.
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[10]“Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons,”September14,2013,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm.
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[11]Goldberg,“The Obama Doctrine.”
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[12]John F.Kennedy(speech,Americans for Democratic Action Convention,Washington,DC,May12,1961),quoted in“Times Call for Liberal Action,Says Kennedy,”Lodi News-Sentinel,May13,1961,https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=QOgzAAAAIBAJ&sjid=g4HAAAAIBAJ&dq=americans+for+democratic+action&pg=7056,2944411&hl=en.
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[13]Vladimir Putin,“70th Session of the UN General Assembly,”(speech,New York,September28,2015),President of Russia,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385.
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[14]See Richard N.Haass,The Reluctant Sheriff
:The United States After the Cold War(New York
:Council on Foreign Relations Press,1998).Barack Obama clearly belongs to the category of presidents who favored retrenchment over the expansion of US power.See Steven Sestanovich,Maximalist
:America in the World From Truman to Obama(New York
:Knopf,2014),especially chap.12.
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[15]UN Security Council,Resolution2254,December18,2015,http://www.undocs.org/S/RES/2254(2015).
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[16]“Joint Statement of the United States and the Russian Federation,as Co-Chairs of the ISSG,on Cessation of Hostilities in Syria,”February22,2016,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/02/253115.htm.
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[17]Adel Al-Jubeir,interview by Christiane Amanpour,Amanpour.,CNN,February19,2016,http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/19/ampr.01.html.
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[18]James A.Baker III et al.,The Iraq Study Group Report
:The Way Forward,A New Approach(December6,2006),http://bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/88085bb4/iraqstudygroup findings.pdf.
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[19]See George W.Bush,“President’s Address to the Nation,”(speech,Washington,DC,January10,2007),George W.Bush White House https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html;and“Fact Sheet
:The New Way Forward in Iraq,”January10,2007,George W.Bush White House,https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-3.html.See also,Bush,Decision Points,chap.12.
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[20]“Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq,”December14,2008,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/122074.pdf.
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