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非洲有50多个国家，和拉丁美洲、中东地区有共同点，许多非洲国家也取得了令人瞩目的进步。南非和平结束了种族隔离，是一大成就，尽管后来不少事态的发展令人失望；卢旺达人在经历巨大的国家灾难之后再次汇聚到一起，是一个正面的典型；博茨瓦纳、佛得角、肯尼亚、纳米比亚和塞内加尔等国家在治理措施和经济竞争力上成绩较突出。非洲总体经济增长约500％，当然，这一数字也反映出经济的低起点和大宗商品的扭曲效应，还掩盖了国家内部和国家之间的巨大不平等。
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与拉丁美洲一样，非洲最主要的问题在于政治治理及经济和社会发展。腐败很普遍，但总体没有传统的地缘政治问题。中国在这里取得了一些经济进展，但也了解外国在此能够达到的上限；很少有强国威胁弱势邻国独立性的情况；最紧迫的挑战大多来自国内，而不是发生在国家之间；没有核扩散的威胁。对秩序的威胁主要来自少数群体的分裂活动、多数群体对少数群体的压制、部落和宗教冲突、难民流动和恐怖组织。我并不是在为非洲发生的多次长期内战、种族灭绝和镇压等问题裹上一层糖衣，而是说大部分非洲大陆都不是大国竞争或传统战争的发生地。
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[1]Mahmoud Abdel-Fadil,et al.,Arab Human Development Report
:Challenges to Human Security in the Arab Countries(New York
:United Nations Publications,2009),http://www.arab-hdr.org/publications/other/ahdr/ahdr2009e.pdf.
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[2]“Statement of President Barack Obama on Egypt,”February10,2011,The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2011/02/10/statement-president-barack-obama-egypt.
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[3]UN Security Council,Resolution1973,March17,2011,http://www.undocs.org/S/RES/1973(2011).
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[4]The phrase“leading from behind”was first articulated by an unnamed Obama-administration official in Ryan Lizza,“The Consequentialist
:How the Arab Spring Remade Obama’s Foreign Policy,”The New Yorker,May2,2011,http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/05/02/the-consequentialist.
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[5]See Alan J.Kuperman,“Obama’s Libya Debacle
:How a Well Meaning Intervention Ended in Failure,”Foreign Affairs94,no.2(March/April2015),https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/libya/obamas-libya-debacle.For an account of decision-making,see Jo Becker and Scott Shane,“Hillary Clinton,‘Smart Power’and a Dictator’s Fall,”The New York Times,February27,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html.
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[6]Jeffrey Goldberg,“The Obama Doctrine,”The Atlantic,April2016,http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obamadoctrine/471525/.
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[7]“Statement by President Obama on Syria,”August18,2011,from Macon Phillips,“President Obama
:‘The future of Syria must be determined by its people,but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way,’”White House Blog,August18,2011,https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2011/08/18/president-obama-future-syriamust-be-determined-its-people-president-bashar-al-assad.
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[8]Barack Obama,“Remarks by the President to the White House Press Corps,”(speech,Washington,DC,August20,2012),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-pressoffice/2012/08/20/remarks-president-white-house-press-corps.
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[9]Barack Obama,“Statement by the President on Syria,”(speech,Washington,DC,August31,2013),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2013/08/31/statement-president-syria.
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[10]“Framework for Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons,”September14,2013,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm.
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[11]Goldberg,“The Obama Doctrine.”
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[12]John F.Kennedy(speech,Americans for Democratic Action Convention,Washington,DC,May12,1961),quoted in“Times Call for Liberal Action,Says Kennedy,”Lodi News-Sentinel,May13,1961,https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=QOgzAAAAIBAJ&sjid=g4HAAAAIBAJ&dq=americans+for+democratic+action&pg=7056,2944411&hl=en.
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[13]Vladimir Putin,“70th Session of the UN General Assembly,”(speech,New York,September28,2015),President of Russia,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50385.
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[14]See Richard N.Haass,The Reluctant Sheriff
:The United States After the Cold War(New York
:Council on Foreign Relations Press,1998).Barack Obama clearly belongs to the category of presidents who favored retrenchment over the expansion of US power.See Steven Sestanovich,Maximalist
:America in the World From Truman to Obama(New York
:Knopf,2014),especially chap.12.
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[15]UN Security Council,Resolution2254,December18,2015,http://www.undocs.org/S/RES/2254(2015).
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[16]“Joint Statement of the United States and the Russian Federation,as Co-Chairs of the ISSG,on Cessation of Hostilities in Syria,”February22,2016,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/02/253115.htm.
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[17]Adel Al-Jubeir,interview by Christiane Amanpour,Amanpour.,CNN,February19,2016,http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1602/19/ampr.01.html.
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[18]James A.Baker III et al.,The Iraq Study Group Report
:The Way Forward,A New Approach(December6,2006),http://bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/88085bb4/iraqstudygroup findings.pdf.
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[19]See George W.Bush,“President’s Address to the Nation,”(speech,Washington,DC,January10,2007),George W.Bush White House https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html;and“Fact Sheet
:The New Way Forward in Iraq,”January10,2007,George W.Bush White House,https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-3.html.See also,Bush,Decision Points,chap.12.
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[20]“Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq,”December14,2008,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/122074.pdf.
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[21]Barack Obama,“Remarks of President Barack Obama-Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,”(speech,Camp Lejeune,Jacksonville,NC,February27,2009),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-ndash-responsibly-ending-war-iraq.
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[22]Emma Sky,The Unraveling
:High Hopes and Missed Opportunities in Iraq(New York
:Public Affairs,2015).
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[23]There is no end to the literature that examines foreign policy decision-making.Some of the best books include Richard Neustadt and Ernest May,Thinking In Time
:The Uses of History for Decision-Makers(New York
:Free Press,1986);Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow,Essence of Decision
:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis(Boston
:Addison Wesley,1999);Morton H.Halperin and Priscilla A.Clapp with Arnold Kanter,Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy,2nd ed.(Washington,DC
:Brookings Institution Press,2006);and Gordon Goldstein,Lessons in Disaster
:McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam(New York
:Times Books,2008).On the role and functioning of the National Security Council under different presidents,see Ivo H.Daalder and I.M.Destler,In the Shadow of the Oval Office
:Profiles of the National Security Advisors and the Presidents They Served—From JFK to George W.Bush(New York
:Simon and Schuster,2009).For insider accounts of the dynamics of the George H.W.Bush administration,see the memoirs of Bush and Scowcroft,A World Transformed;Baker,The Politics of Diplomacy;and Haass,War of Necessity,War of Choice.For the Clinton administration,see Madeleine Albright,Madame Secretary(New York
:Miramax,2003);and Bob Woodward,The Agenda
:Inside the Clinton White House(New York
:Simon and Schuster,1994).For the George W.Bush administration,see Bush,Decision Points;Condoleezza Rice,No Higher Honor(New York
:Random House,2011);and Robert M.Gates,Duty
:Memoirs of a Secretary at War(New York
:Knopf,2014).For the Obama administration,see Gates,Duty;Hillary Rodham Clinton,Hard Choices(New York
:Simon and Schuster,2014);Leon Panetta,Worthy Fights
:A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace(New York
:Penguin,2014);Vali Nasr,The Dispensable Nation
:American Foreign Policy in Retreat(New York
:Doubleday,2013);and David Samuels,“The Aspiring Novelist Who Became Obama’s ForeignPolicy Guru,”New York Times Magazine,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelistwho-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html.
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