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[19]See George W.Bush,“President’s Address to the Nation,”(speech,Washington,DC,January10,2007),George W.Bush White House https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-7.html;and“Fact Sheet
:The New Way Forward in Iraq,”January10,2007,George W.Bush White House,https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2007/01/20070110-3.html.See also,Bush,Decision Points,chap.12.
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[20]“Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq On the Withdrawal of United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of Their Activities during Their Temporary Presence in Iraq,”December14,2008,U.S.Department of State,http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/122074.pdf.
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[21]Barack Obama,“Remarks of President Barack Obama-Responsibly Ending the War in Iraq,”(speech,Camp Lejeune,Jacksonville,NC,February27,2009),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-barack-obama-ndash-responsibly-ending-war-iraq.
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[22]Emma Sky,The Unraveling
:High Hopes and Missed Opportunities in Iraq(New York
:Public Affairs,2015).
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[23]There is no end to the literature that examines foreign policy decision-making.Some of the best books include Richard Neustadt and Ernest May,Thinking In Time
:The Uses of History for Decision-Makers(New York
:Free Press,1986);Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow,Essence of Decision
:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis(Boston
:Addison Wesley,1999);Morton H.Halperin and Priscilla A.Clapp with Arnold Kanter,Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy,2nd ed.(Washington,DC
:Brookings Institution Press,2006);and Gordon Goldstein,Lessons in Disaster
:McGeorge Bundy and the Path to War in Vietnam(New York
:Times Books,2008).On the role and functioning of the National Security Council under different presidents,see Ivo H.Daalder and I.M.Destler,In the Shadow of the Oval Office
:Profiles of the National Security Advisors and the Presidents They Served—From JFK to George W.Bush(New York
:Simon and Schuster,2009).For insider accounts of the dynamics of the George H.W.Bush administration,see the memoirs of Bush and Scowcroft,A World Transformed;Baker,The Politics of Diplomacy;and Haass,War of Necessity,War of Choice.For the Clinton administration,see Madeleine Albright,Madame Secretary(New York
:Miramax,2003);and Bob Woodward,The Agenda
:Inside the Clinton White House(New York
:Simon and Schuster,1994).For the George W.Bush administration,see Bush,Decision Points;Condoleezza Rice,No Higher Honor(New York
:Random House,2011);and Robert M.Gates,Duty
:Memoirs of a Secretary at War(New York
:Knopf,2014).For the Obama administration,see Gates,Duty;Hillary Rodham Clinton,Hard Choices(New York
:Simon and Schuster,2014);Leon Panetta,Worthy Fights
:A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace(New York
:Penguin,2014);Vali Nasr,The Dispensable Nation
:American Foreign Policy in Retreat(New York
:Doubleday,2013);and David Samuels,“The Aspiring Novelist Who Became Obama’s ForeignPolicy Guru,”New York Times Magazine,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/08/magazine/the-aspiring-novelistwho-became-obamas-foreign-policy-guru.html.
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[24]Hillary Clinton,“America’s Pacific Century,”Foreign Policy,October11,2011,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific century;Tom Donilon,_“America is Back in the Pacific and Will Uphold the Rules,”Financial Times,November27,2011,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f3febac-1761-11e1-b00e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1lvbgzfyEc;President Barack Obama,The White House,“Remarks By President Obama to the Australian Parliament,”(speech,Canberra,Australia,November17,2011),http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/11/17/remarkspresident-obama-australian-parliament.
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[25]“Trans-Pacific Partnership,”Office of the U.S.Trade Representative,https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/transpacific-partnership/tpp-full-text.
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[26]See Zheng Bijian,China’s Peaceful Rise
:Speeches of Zheng Bijian,1997-2005(Washington,DC
:Brookings Institution Press,2005).Also see Thomas J.Christensen,The China Challenge
:Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power(New York
:Norton,2015).
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[27]Sheila Smith,Intimate Rivals
:Japanese Domestic Politics and a Rising China(New York
:Columbia University Press,2015).
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[28]Richard Katz,“Mutually Assured Production
:Why Trade Will Limit Conflict Between China and Japan,”Foreign Affairs92,no.4(July/August2013)https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2013-06-11/mutual-assured-production.
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[29]United States and India Nuclear Cooperation,Pub.L.No.109-401,https://www.congress.gov/109/plaws/publ401/PLAW109publ401.pdf.
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[30]See Daniel S.Markey,No Exit from Pakistan
:America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad(New York
:Cambridge University Press,2013).
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[31]Haass,War of Necessity,War of Choice,194-200.Also see Ahmed Rashid,Descent Into Chaos
:The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan,Afghanistan,and Central Asia(New York
:Viking,2008).
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[32]Barack Obama,“Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the Way Forward in Afghanistan and Pakistan,”(speech,Washington,DC,December1,2009),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-addressnation-way-forward-afghanistan-and-pakistan.
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[33]Barack Obama,“Statement by the President on Afghanistan,”(speech,Washington,DC,October15,2015),The White House,https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/10/15/statement-president-afghanistan.
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[34]“Treaty on European Union,”February7,1992,European Union,http://europa.eu/eu-law/decision-making/treaties/pdf/treaty on_european union/treaty on european union en.pdf.
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[35]“Treaty of Lisbon,”December13,2007,European Union,http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=OJ
:C:2007:306:FULL&from=EN.
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[36]“Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean,”February14,1967,UN Office of Disarmament Affairs,http://disarmament.un.org/treaties/t/tlatelolco/text.
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失序时代：全球旧秩序的崩溃与新秩序的重塑 第七章 世界多极化的泡沫
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我在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教书时，一个常见的主题是：政府部门90％的工作是实施。政策设计当然重要，达成原则性协议也值得付出努力，但最重要的是：实际上做到了什么。我在这里再次强调这一点，因为合法性和秩序受到过程与政策的影响。后冷战时代伊始，全世界似乎在联合国安理会领导下，就阻止萨达姆入侵和吞并科威特达成了广泛一致，但是这一成功在很大程度上取决于两个原因：获得广泛支持的传统主权概念；萨达姆的行径很野蛮。确实，如果其他4个常任理事国中的任何一个有不同意见，并准备使用其否决权挫败美国的计划，美国就不会在整个危机期间依赖安理会解决这个问题。换句话说，在华盛顿方面看来，联合国安理会的支持能够赋予合法性，最好能够获得，但不是必不可少的。
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同样的问题出现在激发国际社会对塞尔维亚问题的应对中。美国和欧洲普遍认为塞尔维亚的行为毫无根据、不道德，但是当知道俄罗斯会使用否决权阻止联合国批准对塞尔维亚进行武装干预时，美国与英国、法国一起将这个问题提交到北约。这种“择地行诉”是一种实用的方法，能够为某个计划获得多边支持和一定程度的合法性，却也是那些不同意的国家所厌恶的。还有观点认为这是一种迂回方法，只是为了获得能够赋予合法性的组织的支持。
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为发动2003年伊拉克战争，美国起初与联合国安理会合作，但最终放弃了这一路径，没有获得正式或非正式的国际支持就开战了。十几年后，俄罗斯干涉克里米亚时也没有求助于安理会。联合国确实就克里米亚问题召集了会议，但那是在事情发生之后，而不是授权给俄罗斯，允许它进行干涉。
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这里可以得出如下结论。首先，没有一个国家——更不用说一个大国——会因为没有联合国的首肯，就准备放弃它认为有利于其国家利益的行动。巴尔干地区所发生的一切恰恰佐证了这一观点。公正地说，塞尔维亚政府的所作所为按照国际法或价值观来衡量属于非法范畴，美国和欧洲所寻求的行动方案具有内在合法性，但是俄罗斯拒绝同意，这意味着行动不会得到安理会的批准，不能获得传统权威赋予它的合法性，事情只能陷入困境。
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