1703248866

1703248867 [48]James Traub, “Wallowing in Decline,” Foreign Policy, 24 September 2010, http: //www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/24/wallowing_in_decline?page=0,1 (accessed 27 December 2010); Stephen M.Walt, “The Virtues of Competence,” Foreign Policy, 22 September 2010, http: //walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/22/the_virtues_of_competence (accessed 27 December 2010).

1703248868

1703248869 [49]Zakaria, The Post-American World.

1703248870

1703248871 [50]Richard Haass, “The Age of Nonpolarity: What Will Follow US Dominance?” Foreign Affairs 87, no.3 (2008): 44—56; Layne, “The Waning of US Hegemony—Myth or Reality?”有关数据，参见National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 2008), http: //www.dni.gov/nic /PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf (accessed 25 May 2013)。有关非美国学者的视角，参见Dilip Hiro, After Empire: The Birth of a Multipolar World (New York: Nation Books, 2009); Giovanni Grevi, The Interpolar World: A New Scenario, Occasional Paper 79 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2009); Luis Peral, ed., Global Security in a Multipolar World Chaillot Paper 118 (Paris: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2009); Thomas Renard, A BRIC in the World: Emerging Powers, Europe and the Coming Order (Brussels: Academic Press for the Royal Institute of International Relations, 2009); Álvaro de Vasconcelos, “Multilateralising Multi-Polarity II: Between Self-Interest and a Responsible Approach,” in Luis Peral, ed., Global Security in a Multi-polar World, Chaillot Paper 118 (Paris: European Institute for Security Studies, 2009), 5—14; Kishore Mahbubani, The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East (New York: Public Affairs Press, 2008)。

1703248872

1703248873 [51]Shirong Chen, “China Defends Africa Economic and Trade Role,” 23 December 2010, http: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/world-asia-pacific-12069624?SThisEM (accessed 23 December, 2010); Martin Wolf, Fixing Global Finance: How to Curb Financial Crisis in the 21st Century (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2008).有关人权，参见“China Rejects US Criticism of Human Rights Record,” 11 May 2011, http: //www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-13358081 (accessed 11 May 2011)。

1703248874

1703248875 [52]一个凸显的案例，可参见The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, “Remarks by the President in State of Union Address,” 25 January 2011, http: //www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/01/25/remarks-president-state-union-address (accessed 29 January 2011)。

1703248876

1703248877 [53]Nicholas Spykman, “Geography and Foreign Policy 2,” American Political Science Review 36, no.4 (1938): 213—236; Edward Hallett Carr, The Twenty Year’s Crisis, 1919—1939: An Introduction to the Study of International Relations (London: Macmillan, 1940); Hans J.Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Knopf, 1948); Frederick Lewis Schuman, International Politics: An Introduction to the Western State (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1958).

1703248878

1703248879 [54]Hans J.Morgenthau, Politics in the Twentieth Century: The Impasse of American Foreign Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962), 141.

1703248880

1703248881 [55]约翰·伊肯伯里认为，美国冷战政策的缔造者了解这一原则，正因为如此，美国在其霸权初期获得了成功。参见G.John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order after Major Wars (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2001)。

1703248882

1703248883 [56]Thomas Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1960); Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966).

1703248884

1703248885 [57]Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994); Ted Hopf, Peripheral Visions: Deterrence Theory and American Foreign Policy in the Third World, 1965—1990 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1994).

1703248886

1703248887 [58]Richard Ned Lebow, The Art of Bargaining (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, chap.6.

1703248888

1703248889 [59]Thomas Schelling, Strategy of Conflict, 174.

1703248890

1703248891 [60]Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1979).

1703248892

1703248893 [61]Kenneth N. Waltz, “The Emerging Structure of International Politics,” International Security 18, no.2 (1993): 44—79; Charles A.Kupchan, “After Pax Americana: Benign Power, Regional Integration, and the Sources of Stable Multipolarity,” International Security 23 (1998): 40—79; William C. Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24 (1999): 5—41; G. John Ikenberry, America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002).

1703248894

1703248895 [62]冷战证明了权力的某些原型的不相关性。苏联和美国发展了可观的核武库及其投送系统。这些武器是不能使用的。设计这些核武器的主要目的，是进行一场同归于尽式的超级大国战争，相当于自杀，即便不是全球范围内的同归于尽。核武器旨在威慑另一方。核武器及其投放系统的前沿部署是超级大国的冲突与冷战大为延伸的主要原因。参见Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War, chap.13。

1703248896

1703248897 [63]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2011 (Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), 158.

1703248898

1703248899 [64]Elisabeth Sköns, Catalina Perdomo, Sam Perlo-Freeman, and Petter Stålenheim,“Military Expenditure,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, http: //www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/files/SIPRIYB0410.pdf, 311—313 (accessed 5 January 2012).

1703248900

1703248901 [65]Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook 2011, 9.

1703248902

1703248903 [66]Robert Johnson, “The 2012 Defense Budget Is the Highest since World War II,” Business Insider, 19 July 2011, http: //www.businessinsider.com/2012-us-defense-budget-largest-since-world-war-ii-2011-7 (accessed 25 February 2013); Kimberly Amadeo, “FY 2012 US Federal Budget,” About.com, 11 February 2012, http: //useconomy.about.com/od/usfederalbudget/p/US-Government-Federal-Budget-FY2012-Summary.htm (accessed 25 February 2013).

1703248904

1703248905 [67]Global Issues, “World Military Spending,” 25 February 2007, http: //www.global issues.org/Geopolitics/ArmsTrade/Spending.asp#USMilitarySpending (accessed 23 February 2012); Christopher Hellman, “Highlights of the Fiscal Year 2008 Pentagon Spending Request,” 5 February 2007, http: //www.armscontrolcenter.org/archives/002239.php (accessed August 2010).

1703248906

1703248907 [68]Joseph S.Nye Jr., Soft Power: The Means to Success in Worlds Politics (New York: Public Affairs, 2004), 5—11.

1703248908

1703248909 [69]参见Joseph S.Nye Jr., “The Future of American Power,” Foreign Affairs 89, no.6 (2010): 2—14; G.John Ikenberry, Liberal Order and Imperial Ambition (Cambridge: Polity, 2006), especially 1—18; G.John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002); John M.Owen IV, “Transnational Liberalism and American Primacy: or, Benignity Is in the Eye of the Beholder,” in Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled, 239—259; Thomas Risse, “US Power in a Liberal Security, in Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled, 260—283。

1703248910

1703248911 [70]Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Leading through Civilian Power: Redefining American Diplomacy and Development,” Foreign Affairs 89, no.6 (2010): 13—24.

1703248912

1703248913 [71]Globescan/Program on International Policy Attitudes, “Global Views of United States Improves While Other Countries Decline,” BBC Views, 18 April 2010, 7; “BBC Poll: Germany the Most Popular Country in the World.”

1703248914

1703248915 [72]Joel Greenberg, “Israel: Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi Pledges New Peace Efforts,” Washington Post, 31 July 2012, http: //articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-07-31/world/35489115_1_netanyahu-and-peres-president-morsi-peace-efforts (accessed 25 February 2013).

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