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[1]这部分内容曾以《民主转型僵局》为题刊载于《南风窗》2014年第7期，内容有修订。
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[2]胡安·林茨和阿尔弗莱德·斯泰潘：《走向巩固的民主制》，载于猪口孝、爱德华·纽曼和约翰·基恩编：《变动中的民主》，林猛等译，长春：吉林人民出版社1999年版，第56—81页。
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[3]包刚升：《民主转型的周期性：从启动、崩溃到巩固》，《二十一世纪》2012年4月号，第17—27页；包刚升：《民主崩溃的政治学》，北京：商务印书馆2014年版。
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[4]约翰·索利：《雅典的民主》，王琼淑译，上海：上海译文出版社2001年版，第88—92页。
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[5]塞缪尔·亨廷顿：《第三波——20世纪后期民主化浪潮》，刘军宁译，上海：上海三联书店1998年版，第11—26页。
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[6]Larry Diamond,“Consolidating Democracy in the Americas,”Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol.550, NAFTA Revisited: Expectations and Realities,（Mar., 1997）, pp.12-41.
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[7]Scott Mainwaring and Timothy R.Scully,“Latin America: Eight Lessons for Governance,”Journal of Democracy, Volume 19, Number 3 July 2008, pp.113-127.
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[8]Richard Joseph,“Democratization in Africa after 1989: Comparative and Theoretical Perspectives，”Comparative Politics, Vol.29, No.3, Transitions to Democracy: A Special Issue in Memory of Dankwart A.Rustow（Apr., 1997）, pp.363-382.
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[9]Michael McFaul,“The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World,”World Politics, Vol.54, No.2（Jan., 2002）, pp.212-244.
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[10]Thomas Carothers,“The End of Transition Paradigm,”Journal of Democracy, 13（1）, 2002: 5-21.
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[11]Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy: the Struggle to Build Free Societies throughout the World, New York: Times Books, 2008, pp.56-87.
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[12]塞缪尔·亨廷顿：《第三波——20世纪后期民主化浪潮》，刘军宁译，上海：上海三联书店1998年版，第54页。
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[13]Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy: the Struggle to Build Free Societies throughout the World, New York: Times Books, 2008, p.96.详细数据的来源请参阅联合国开发署发布的各国人类发展指标和自由之家发表的各国政治权利和公民权利评价系统。戴蒙德在此参考的是2006年的数据，他排除了古巴。
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[14]Adam Przeworski, Michael E.Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000., 79-80.
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[15]Seymour Martin Lipset,“Some Social Requisites of Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy,”American Political Science Review, Vol.53, No.1, Mar 1959, pp.69-105.
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[16]Robert J. Barro,“Determinants of Democracy,”The Journal of Political Economy, 1999, Vol.107, No.6, pp.158-183.
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[17]Adam Przeworski, Michael E.Alvarez, Jose Antonio Cheibub and Fernando Limongi, Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950-1990, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000: 137.
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[18]Larry Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World, New York: Times Books, 2008, p.27.
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[19]罗伯特·达尔：《多头政体》，第79页。
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[20]塞缪尔·亨廷顿：《第三波——20世纪后期民主化浪潮》，第70—74页。
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[21]Seymour Martin Lipset,“The Social Requisites of Democracy Revisited: 1993 Presidential Address,”American Sociological Review, Vol.59, No.1, Feb.1994, pp.1-24.
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[22]巴林顿·摩尔：《民主与专制的社会起源》，拓夫等译，北京：华夏出版社1987年版，第334—350页。
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[23]Evelyne Huber and John D.Stephens,“The Bourgeoisie and Democracy: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives，”Social Research, Vol.66, No.3，Fall 1999, pp.759-788.
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[24]John D.Stephens,“Democratic Transitions and Breakdown in Western Europe, 1870-1939: A Test of the Moore Thesis,”The American Journal of Sociology, Vol.94, No.5,（Mar., 1989）, pp.1019-1077.
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[25]Jean Grugel, Democratization: A Critical Introduction, Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2002, p.54.
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