打字猴:1.70343087e+09
1703430870
1703430871 [18]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,This Time Is Different （Princeton,NJ:Princeton University Press,2009）.
1703430872
1703430873 [19]Oscar Jorda,Moritz Schularick,and Alan M.Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back:Leverage,Business Cycles,and Crisis” （working paper no.17621,NBER,2011）.
1703430874
1703430875 [20]IMF的研究也确认了这一点，他们认为，即使没有银行业危机，家庭债务的上升也会使衰退更加严重，参见IMF,“Chapter 3:Dealing with Household Debt”。
1703430876
1703430877 [21]Jorda,Schularick,and Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back,” 5.
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1703430879 [22]George W.Bush,“Speech to the Nation on the Economic Crisis,” September 24,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24textbush.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
1703430880
1703430881 第2章
1703430882
1703430883 [1]本部分的所有数据来自美联储的消费者金融调查。
1703430884
1703430885 [2]杠杆乘数的数学定义为1/（1-LTV），其中LTV是家庭的贷款与房屋价值的比率。在这个例子中，LTV为80%，这就使得1/（1-0.80） = 5。LTV越高，那么杠杆乘数就越大。
1703430886
1703430887 [3]要了解我们研究所用数据的全面概括，可以参看以下研究：Atif Mian and Amir Sufi,“The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion:Evidence from the U.S.Mortgage Default Crisis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 （2009）:1449-96; Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58 （2010）:74-117; and Atif Mian,Kamelesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming。
1703430888
1703430889 [4]CoreLogic Press Release,“CoreLogic Third Quarter 2011 Negative Equity Data Shows Slight Decline but Remains Elevated,” November 29,2011,http://www.corelogic.com/aboutus/news/corelogicthirdquarter2011negativeequitydatashowsslightdeclinebutremainselevated.aspx.
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1703430891 [5]Daniel Hartley,“Distressed Sales and Housing Prices,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends,February 24,2012.
1703430892
1703430893 [6]Atif Mian,Amir Sufi,and Francesco Trebbi,“Foreclosures,House Prices,and the Real Economy” （working paper no.16685,NBER,May 2012）.
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1703430895 [7]另一项研究使用了不同方法却得到了相似的结果：Elliot Anenberg and Edward Kung,“Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures” （working paper 2013-09,UCLA,January 11,2013）。他们发现了相似的渠道：止赎迫使他们以低于先前市价的价格出售房屋，进而压低了临近地区的房价。
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1703430897 [8]Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny,“Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity:A Market Equilibrium Approach,” Journal of Finance 47 （1992）:1343-66.
1703430898
1703430899 [9]John Geanakoplos,“The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009,vol.24,ed.Daron Acemoglu,Kenneth Rogoff ,and Michael Woodford （Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2010）,1-65.
1703430900
1703430901 [10]参见国家火灾保护协会数据，http://www.nfpa.org/research/firestatistics/theusfireproblem/homefires。
1703430902
1703430903 第3章
1703430904
1703430905 [1]这里引用自Alan Blinder，他在谈到挽救雷曼兄弟的失败时写道：“这是一个巨大的错误，并且很多人都这么认为。”参见 Alan Blinder,“Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis,” New York Times,January 25,2009。
1703430906
1703430907 [2]Jacob Weisberg,“What Caused the Great Recession?,” Daily Beast,January 8,2010,http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/08/whatcausedthegreatrecession.html.
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1703430909 [3]本部分的事实基于两项研究报告：Atif Mian,Kamalesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming；Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58（2010）:74-117。
1703430910
1703430911 [4]James Surowiecki,“The Deleveraging Myth,” New Yorker,November 14,2011。他在专栏中还写道：“为了大幅刺激消费，以房屋净值做抵押进行借款的消费刺激是不可持续的，我们也不要指望经济回到那种状态。”我们完全同意这种观点。——参见第6章到第8章。
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1703430913 [5]布鲁金斯学会的Karen Dynan使用了完全不同的方法和数据库并发现了债务对家庭支出的强有力影响。她的分析发现：“在2007～2009年间，高杠杆购房者支出下降的幅度比其他购房者要大，尽管净值的变化要小一些。这就表明杠杆对消费的影响要高于单纯的财富效应对消费的影响。”Karen Dynan,“Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity （Spring 2012）:299-344。
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1703430915 第4章
1703430916
1703430917 [1]对Hal Varian的采访来源有两部分：Holly Finn,“Lunch with Hal,” Google Think Quarterly,March 2011,http://www.thinkwithgoogle.co.uk/quarterly/data/halvariantreatingdataobesity.html; and McKinsey & Company,“Hal Varian on How the Web Challenges Managers,” McKinsey Quarterly,January 2009,http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/innovation/hal_varian_on_how_the_web_challenges_managers。
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1703430919 [2]宏观经济学家将基于基本面的理论称为实际商业周期理论，因为经济波动主要受“实际”冲击的影响，也就是说对经济生产能力的冲击。经典的引用来自Edward C.Prescott,“Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10,no.4 （1986）:9-21。
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