1703430933
[9]Irving Fisher,“The DebtDeflation Theory of Great Depressions,” Econometrica 1 no.4 (1933)
:337-57.
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[10]例如,Zhen Huo和JoseVictor RiosRull建立一个经济模型,其中由于很难将资源转移到出口商品的生产上,导致财富受损,衰退随之而生。Zhen Huo and JoseVictor RiosRull,“Engineering a Paradox of Thrift Recession” (working paper,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,December 2012)。
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[11]我们在下面的文章中建立了这个正式的模型: Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel” (working paper,University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2012)。
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第5章
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[1]Bob Corker参议员:“柯克:奥巴马政府提出的资不抵债住房抵押贷款本金减记计划是一项‘糟糕的公共政策’,迫使田纳西州为其他州不负责任的购房行为埋单。”2012年1月30日新闻稿地址:http://www.corker.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2012/1/corkerobamaadministrationsprincipalwritedownproposalforunderwaterhomemortgagesisterriblepublicpolicyforcestennesseanstopayforrecklesshousingpracticesinotherstates。
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[2]此方法是基于我们的研究:Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel” (working paper,University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2012)。
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[3]这些假设最重要的一点与家庭偏好相关,其中我们假设家庭在可贸易和不可贸易商品之间的选择是柯布—道格拉斯偏好(CobbDouglas preferences),我们可以对这一假设进行简单的比例计算。计算出由于杠杆化损失冲击导致不可贸易部门工作岗位损失的部分使我们可以倒推整个经济体的部分工作岗位损失。参见Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel”。
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[4]John Maynard Keynes,The General Theory of Employment,Interest,and Money (1935; reprint,CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform,2011).
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[5]Mary Daly,Bart Hobijn,and Brian Lucking,“Why Has Wage Growth Stayed Strong?” FRBSF Economic Letter,April 2,2012.
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[6]Mary Anastasia O’Grady,“The Fed’s Easy Money Skeptic,”Wall Street Journal,February 12,2011.
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1703430953
[7]Kyle Herkenhoff and Lee Ohanian,“Foreclosure Delay and U.S.Unemployment”(working paper,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,June 2012).
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[8]Jesse Rothstein,“Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall 2011,143- 96.
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1703430957
[9]Johannes Schmieder,Till von Wachter,and Stefan Bender,“The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle
:Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates over 20 Years,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 127 (2012)
:701-52.
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[10]Steven J.Davis and Till von Wachter,“Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall 2011.
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第6章
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[1]我们定义的底特律西部地区是指人们生活在下列邮政编码区:48219,48223,48227,48228,48235。相关背景信息来自维基百科关于布赖特摩尔(Brightmoor)的条目:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brightmoor,_Detroit,and authors’calculations。
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[2]Ron French,“How the Home Loan Boom Went Bust,” Detroit News,November 27,2007.
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[3]Mark Whitehouse,“‘Subprime’ Aftermath
:Losing the Family Home,” Wall Street Journal,May 30,2007.
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[4]French,“Home Loan Boom Went Bust.”
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[5]在计算过程中,最高和最低指的是信用评分分布顶层和底层20%的人群,被拒率截至1998年。
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[6]Ben Bernanke,testimony on “The Economic Outlook” on October 20,2005,before the Joint Economic Committee,109th Congress.
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[7]想获得计算的细节,可以参看Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion
:Evidence from the U.S.Mortgage Default Crisis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (2009)
:1449-96。
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[8]在现实中,债务论和动物精神论彼此并不是独立的。例如,债务可以允许那些拥有非理性信念的人购买房屋,这是我们在第8章中会强调的某种渠道。
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[9]Edward Glaeser,Joseph Gyourko,and Albert Saiz,“Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles,” Journal of Urban Economics 64 (2008)
:198-217,本文提供了使用住房供给弹性来分析房地产市场泡沫多样性的动机。
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[10]Mian and Sufi ,“Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion”; Albert Saiz,“The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 125 (2010)
:1253-96.
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