1703431020
1703431021
[11]这是《经济学人》文章所给的标题，该文介绍了我们2008年2月研究的内容。参见the Economist,“Chain of Fools,” February 7,2008。
1703431022
1703431023
[12]Benjamin Keys,T.Mukherjee,Amit Seru,and Vikrant Vig,“Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening?
:Evidence from Subprime Loans,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 125 （2010）
:307-62.
1703431024
1703431025
[13]Christopher Mayer,Karen Pence,and Shane Sherlund,“The Rise in Mortgage Defaults,” Journal of Political Economy 23 （2009）
:27-50。本文提供了进一步支持，他们“发现承销情况从几个方面开始恶化：在给借款人发放的贷款中，贷款首付非常少，收入或资产证明很少甚或完全没有。
1703431026
1703431027
[14]Tomasz Piskorski,Amit Seru,and James Witkin,“Asset Quality Misrepresentation by Financial Intermediaries
:Evidence from RMBS Market” （working paper,Columbia Business School,Columbia University,February 12,2013）.
1703431028
1703431029
[15]Adam Ashcraft ,Paul GoldsmithPinkham,and James Vickery,“MBS Ratings and the Mortgage Credit Boom,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report #449,May 2010.
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1703431031
[16]Piskorski,Seru,and Witkin,“Asset Quality Misrepresentation.”
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1703431033
[17]Yuliya Demyanyk and Otto Van Hemert,“Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis,” Review of Financial Studies 24 （2011）
:1848-80.
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1703431035
[18]这个估计数是基于ABX指数，它跟踪MBS的价值，这些住房抵押贷款是2007年发放的。
1703431036
1703431037
第8章
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1703431039
[1]Daniel Altman,“Charles P.Kindleberger,92,Global Economist,Is Dead,” New York Times,July 9,2003.
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1703431041
[2]Robert Solow,foreword to Manias,Panics,and Crashes
:A History of Financial Crises,5th ed.,by Charles Kindleberger and Robert Aliber （Hoboken,NJ
:John Wiley & Sons,2005）.
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1703431043
[3]Vernon Smith,Gerry Suchanek,and Arlington Williams,“Bubbles,Crashes and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets,” Econometrica 56（1988）
:1119-51.
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1703431045
[4]Robert Shiller,“Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to Be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?” American Economic Review 71 （1981）
:421-36.
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1703431047
[5]Jeffrey Pontiff ,“Excess Volatility and ClosedEnd Funds,” American Economic Review 87 （1997）
:155-69.
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1703431049
[6]David Porter and Vernon Smith,“Stock Market Bubbles in the Laboratory,”Journal of Behavioral Finance 4 （2003）
:7-20.
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1703431051
[7]参见下列研究的模型，它们描述了这一逻辑：Michael Harrison and David Kreps,“Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 92 （1978）
:323-36; Jose Scheinkman and Wei Xiong,“Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles,” Journal of Political Economy 111 （2003）
:1183-219; and Dilip Abreu and Markus Brunnermeier,“Bubbles and Crashes,” Econometrica 71 （2003）
:173-204。
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1703431053
[8]下面的讨论主要受到以下文章的启发：John Geanakoplos,“The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009,vol.24,ed.Daron Acemoglu,Kenneth Rogoff,and Michael Woodford （Chicago
:University of Chicago Press,2010）,1-65。
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1703431055
[9]可以通过以下公式确认：100 × ＄125,000 = ＄12.5百万。
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1703431057
[10]See,for example, Edward Glaeser,Joshua Gottlieb,and Joseph Gyourko,“Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?” （working paper no.16230,NBER,July 2010）.
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1703431059
[11]Nicola Gennaioli,Andrei Shleifer,and Robert Vishny,“Neglected Risks,Financial Innovation,and Financial Fragility,” Journal of Financial Economics 104 （2012）
:452-68.
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[12]Solow,foreword to Manias,Panics and Crashes.
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1703431063
[13]Jon Hilsenrath,“A 91YearOld Who Foresaw Selloff is ‘Dubious’ of StockMarket Rally,” Wall Street Journal,July 25,2002.
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1703431065
第9章
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1703431067
[1]Euronews,“Spain’s Unforgiving Eviction Law,” December 11,2012; Suzanne Daley,“In Spain,Homes Are Taken but Debt Stays,” New York Times,October 27,2010.
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[2]Gabriele Steinhauser and Matthew Dalton,“Lingering Bad Debts Stifl e Europe Recovery,” Wall Street Journal,January 31,2013.
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