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当然，就像经济因素无法完美解释汇率安排的选择一样，政治因素对汇率选择的解释也存在一定的局限性。首先，政治因素本身错综复杂，各国面临的政治状况也不尽相同。尽管可以笼统地认为政治因素的作用是不同政治力量相互博弈的结果，但是要精确地定义政治因素或用统一的模式解释不同国家汇率安排的选择是相当困难的。其次，很难量化某一政治因素对汇率安排的影响。截至目前，在汇率安排选择的文献里，很少有文献能够将政治因素定量地考虑到实证研究的模型中。即使纳入考虑范围也要借用经济变量或者针对特定国家粗略定义几个虚拟变量，难以推广使用。最后，通常来讲，一国的政治因素短期内是比较稳定的，有些因素甚至是长时间不变的（例如，有些国家的政党和选举制度在相当长时间内都不发生变化），使其难以解释汇率安排的短期变化。
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可见，汇率安排的选择需要将经济因素和政治因素结合起来，既要看到政治因素对汇率安排长期趋势的影响，也要重视经济因素对其模型解释和短期变动分析的重大作用。而本节的内容正是为从政治因素角度考虑汇率安排提供了一个分析框架，作为从经济因素角度分析的补充，有利于更加全面地研究汇率安排选择的影响因素。
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人民币国际化之路 参考文献
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