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笔者认为在汇率目标区初建阶段，不宜严格采用均衡汇率为中心汇率，一方面是由于中国目前尚未准备推出一个公认的人民币均衡汇率模型的条件，另一方面是为了保持人民币汇率的相对稳定，以实现从目前参考一篮子货币到灵活的汇率目标区的平稳过渡。在汇率目标区的调整阶段，在实现目标区的扩展的同时，中心汇率可以根据具体情况向均衡汇率方向缓慢移动，从而带动整个目标区的移动。在汇率目标区合一阶段，中心汇率应当日益接近均衡汇率。随着中国改革深化、开放扩大、社会主义市场经济不断完善的进程，中国外汇市场主体结构单一、中央银行垄断市场的格局必然会逐步改变。只有在企业和银行真正成为市场主体的前提下，才有可能根据供求关系确定人民币的汇率，在此基础上才能使均衡汇率成为人民币汇率目标区的中心汇率。
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因此，当前阶段，在确定中心汇率时，均衡汇率只是一个参考值，应结合专家经验，进一步确定中心汇率的范围。我们曾于2010年组织人民币汇率研究领域的专家和管理人员就人民币中心汇率的问题进行研讨，并邀请专家给出2011年人民币兑美元中心汇率的大致范围，集合数位专家的意见后，人民币兑美元中心汇率应取值在6.0~6.5元兑1美元之间，这与本书计算得到的均衡汇率在2011年的取值基本一致，而中心汇率的具体取值则可在此范围内选择。
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