打字猴:1.703949338e+09
1703949338 科技再先进也无法将世界上数据的总量(即最终的样本=总体)尽数收集、储存和加工。例如,欧洲粒子物理研究所(CERN)位于日内瓦的粒子物理实验室在试验中只能收集到不到0.1%的反馈信息,其余信息将同潜在的知识一起消失在乙醚中。这种情况司空见惯。从罗盘和六分仪,到望远镜和雷达,再到今天的全球定位系统,人们总是受到现有测量和认知工具的局限。我们明天使用的工具很可能比今天的强大数倍甚至上千倍,我们现在所拥有的知识较之明天可能就显得微不足道了。要不了多久,当我们回看当今的大数据世界时,就像在看阿波罗11号上仅4Kb内存的导航控制计算机一样,会觉得十分奇特。
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1703949340 我们能收集和处理的数据只是世界上极其微小的一部分。这些信息不过是现实的投影——柏拉图洞穴上的阴影罢了。因为我们无法获得完美的信息,所以做出的预测本身就不可靠。但这也不代表预测就一定是错的,只是永远不能做到完善。这也并未否定大数据的判断,而只是让大数据发挥出了应有的作用。大数据提供的不是最终答案,只是参考答案,为我们提供暂时的帮助,以便等待更好的方法和答案出现。这也提醒我们在使用这个工具的时候,应当怀有谦恭之心,铭记人性之本。
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1703949342 [1] 改编自亨利·福特的名言——“如果我当年去问顾客他们想要什么,他们肯定会告诉我:“一匹更快的马。”——作者注
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1703949344 [2] 西方谚语有云:“预测未来最好的办法就是创造未来。”这句话在大数据时代亦应当铭记。在福特时代,任何人都无法从数据中看到汽车将替代马车,福特所创造的是无法预测的全新篇章。——译者注
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1703949349 大数据时代:生活、工作与思维的大变革 [:1703946906]
1703949350 大数据时代:生活、工作与思维的大变革 参考文献
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1703949386 Brynjolfsson,Erik,Lorin Hitt,and Heekyung Kim.“Strength in Numbers:How Does Data-Driven Decisionmaking Affect Firm Performance?”ICIS 2011 Proceedings,Paper 13(http://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2011/proceedings/economicvalueIS /13;also available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1819486).
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