1704380485 28.The price elasticity of demand will decline as price declines under some rather general conditions.Suppose, for example, that consumers’ willingness to pay is distributed according to a distribution function.Let F(p) be the cumulative distribution function with respect to price, p.Then demand will be proportional to 1 – F(p).It is straightforward to show that the elasticity of demand with respect to price will increase with price if F is a lognormal distribution or a wide variety of other common distributions.Typical economic distributions, such as those for income or wealth, are lognormal.

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1704380487 29.Saxonhouse and Wright, “Technique, Spirit, and Form.”

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1704380489 30.Clark, “Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?”

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1704380491 31.Zeitz, “Do Local Institutions Affect All Foreign Investors in the Same Way?”

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1704380493 32.Bloom et al., “Does Management Matter?”

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1704380495 33.Throughout the nineteenth century, the United States imported more textiles than it exported.Although the United States was the most efficient producer of coarse cloths, much of the imported cloth was fine and fancy product.

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1704380497 34.In 2012, the United States imported $5.7 billion in fabric and $1.4 billion in yarn.That year the United States exported $8.5 billion in fabric and $5.1 billion in yarn.Data is from the U.S.Commerce Department, International Trade Administration, O.ce of Textiles and Apparel, http://otexa.ita.doc.gov/msrpoint.htm.

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1704380499 35.Broadwoven cotton fabrics accounted for 35 percent of the woven and knit products made by U.S.textile mills in 1958; they accounted for only 15 percent of output in 2005.These estimates are by dollar volume from the NBER-CES database.

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1704380501 36.In 1929 there were 1.3 million textile workers, about one third of them producing cotton textiles; by 1973, there were 1.0 million textile workers, but only 15 percent were in cotton cloth and finishing; in 2005 there were only 274,000 textile workers, about 10 percent in cotton cloth and finishing.

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1704380503 37.McKenzie and Smith, “Protectionism Warranted?”

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1704380505 38.Leunig, “Piece Rates and Learning.”

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1704380507 39.As noted previously, the QWERTY standard took two or three decades to emerge as the dominant standard.In steelmaking, Nuwer (“From Batch to Flow”) sees high throughput production standards emerging during the period of 1880– 1920; Jardini (“From Iron to Steel”) finds wages doubling at one mill as it adopted this standardized technology.

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1704380509 第七章　如今的转变：只有稀缺的技术，没有稀缺的工作

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1704380511 1.Original broadcast title “March of the Machines,” which aired on January 13, 2013, and was rebroadcast on September 8, 2013.Steve Kroft, correspondent; Harry Radliffe and Maria Gavrilovic, producers, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-robots-hurting-job-growth-08-09-2013/.

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1704380513 2.Deloitte Consulting, “2014 MHI Annual Industry Report.”

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1704380515 3.Gue et al., “U.S.Roadmap.”

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1704380517 4.Gue et al., “U.S.Roadmap,” p..54.

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1704380519 5.Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Second Machine Age, p..10.

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1704380521 6.Occupational data can be tricky to compare over time because occupational classification schemes change.The table presents well-defined detailed occupations from an establishment (workplace) survey over an interval when the categories did not change.Unfortunately, the occupational data do not permit clear counts on warehouse occupations.While word processing, accounting software, etc., might have had a different effect prior to 1999, the claim is that these technologies are eliminating jobs now.

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1704380523 7.Gup, The Future of Banking.

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1704380525 8.Gup, The Future of Banking, p..53.

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1704380527 9.The ATM data come from various publications of the Bank for International Settlements, Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems: “Payment System in Eleven Developed Countries,” for 1980, 1985, and 1989; “Statistics on Payment System in Eleven Developed Countries,” for 1990, 1991, and 1992; “Statistics on Payment System in the Group of Ten Countries,” for 1993–1999; “Statistics on Payment and Settlement Systems in Selected Countries,” for 2001–2008; and “Statistics on Payment and Settlement Systems in the CPMI Countries,” for 2009.Using estimates from the Occupational Employment Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, an establishment survey, the employment of tellers increased from 504,000.in 1984 to 576,580.in 2009.Using the household survey of the March Current Population Survey, tellers increased from 363,000.in 1976 to 469,000.in 2009, an increase of 29 percent.At the same time, the percentage of part-time tellers increased from 24 percent in 1976 to 29 percent in 2009.This makes the increase in “full-time equivalent” teller jobs 26 percent.

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1704380529 10.Hannan and Hanweck, “Recent Trends.” The number of savings associations did not increase as rapidly, but the number of employees per branch at savings associations fell only slightly, from thirteen to twelve.The cost of operations was not the only factor influencing the increase in bank branches.Other factors included population growth and deregulation.However, Hannan and Hanweck find that the number of bank branches increased more in areas with greater decreases in employees per branch.

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1704380531 11.See, for example, De Paula, “Rising Teller Turnover”; Nalbantian and Szostak, “How Fleet Bank Fought Employee Flight”; and Frei, “Breaking the Trade-O..”

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1704380533 12.Ann Carrns, “An ATM, With a Real Teller on the Screen,” New York Times, April 4, 2013.

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