1704380534

1704380535 13.Frey and Osborne, “Future of Employment.”

1704380536

1704380537 14.In 1976, the median hourly wage for full-time typesetters and compositors was 15 percent above the median wage for all full-time workers.

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1704380539 15.William Glaberson, “Seeds of a Newspaper Struggle,” New York Times, December 8, 1992.In England, the comparable dispute was much more bitter, leading to a yearlong battle during the 1980s between Rupert Murdoch of News International and the unions.

1704380540

1704380541 16.I use 1979 and.2007 as comparison years here and in the following discussion, because these years were at roughly comparable points in the business cycle.Comparing the number of designers over time is a bit di.cult because the occupational categories were changing and because different surveys categorized designers differently.The March Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of households, reported 194,471 “designers” in 1979 and 897,728 in 2007.It is possible that this difference is exaggerated because the occupational categories used in this survey changed over time.The Occupational Employment Survey covers workplace establishments, and thus misses freelance designers, but it reports different types of designers and it uses more consistent occupational categories.In 2010, it reported 212,300 “graphic designers” and “desktop publishers.” I estimate (from CPS data) that about 26 percent of graphic designers today are freelancers, implying a total workforce of about 287,000 graphic designers.

1704380542

1704380543 17.These estimates come from the Current Population Survey, which does not directly measure work experience.In this chapter, I use an approximation of experience commonly used by labor economists: max(min(age-years-of-schooling-7, age-17),0).Roughly, this measures the number of years that the person has been out of school, assuming he/she began school at age 7 and including some checks for bad data.

1704380544

1704380545 18.For all types of designers, the hourly pay of the 90th percentile has increased 14 percent relative to the median hourly pay from 1979 to 2007.Generally, designers’ pay has become more unequal with greater variation from designer to designer.These trends, of course, are not unique to designers, but are seen in a wide range of occupations.

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1704380547 19.Using the March Current Population Survey sample comparing 1976–1980 to 2005–2009.

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1704380549 20.American Nurses Association, “American Nurses Association’s First Position.”

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1704380551 21.The ANA, of course, had some self-interest in doing so, since stricter requirements would help raise wages for its members.See Chapter 9.

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1704380553 22.Christensen, Grossman, and Hwang, Innovator’s Prescription.

1704380554

1704380555 23.Autor, Dorn, and Hanson, “China Syndrome.”

1704380556

1704380557 24.Acemoglu et al., “Return of the Solow Paradox?”

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1704380559 25.Autor, Levy, and Murnane, “Skill Content.”

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1704380561 26.This assumes that computer skills are occupation specific, otherwise wages for workers with computer skills would be equalized across occupations.This assumption makes sense if the associated skills are for application-specific computer systems, not merely for computer use generally.

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1704380563 27.The measure of experience here is potential experience calculated as the age of the worker minus the years of schooling minus 7.The table is based on differences in the means of log hourly wages.A multiple regression analysis using a Mincer-type equation with dummy variables for different levels of schooling and experience, plus controls for gender and race, shows very similar estimates based on differences in regression coefficients.

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1704380565 28.Manpower Group, “Talent Shortage Survey.”

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1704380567 29.Cappelli, Why Good People Can’t Get Jobs.

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1704380569 30.Cappelli, Why Good People Can’t Get Jobs, ebook location 313.

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1704380571 31.Kocherlakota, “Inside the FOMC.”

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1704380573 32.For a more thorough discussion of the “skills gap” see Rothstein, “Labor Market.”

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1704380575 33.Various statistics on computer and Internet use are available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/computer/publications/.

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1704380577 34.Bresnahan and Trajtenberg, “General Purpose Technologies ‘Engines of Growth’?” For an overview, see Jovanovic and Rousseau, “General Purpose Technologies.”

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1704380579 35.Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, table D765.Wages are deflated using the GDP deflator.Hours per week also fell.The real hourly wage grew 4 percent over this twenty year interval.

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1704380581 36.Brynjolfsson and McAfee, Second Machine Age.

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1704380583 37.Rifkin, End of Work, p.3.

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