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41.Vinge, “Coming Technological Singularity.”
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42.Timothy B.Lee, “No, Artificial Intelligence Isn’t Going to Take All of Our Jobs,” The Switch (blog), Washington Post, October 23, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/10/23/no-artificial-intelligence-isnt-going-to-take-all-of-our-jobs/.
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第八章 技术会要求更多的大学文凭吗？
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1.In Joe Klein, “Learning That Works,” Time, May 14, 2012.
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2.OECD, Education at a Glance.
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3.Cappelli, “Schools of Dreams.”
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4.Freeman, Over educated American.
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5.The average college graduate earns 1,500 yuan per month while the average migrant worker earns 1,200 yuan.In one case, a city advertised for college graduates to fill eight positions collecting “night soil” and 1,100 applicants responded.Yasheng Huang et al., “What Is a College Degree Worth in China?,” New York Times, December 2, 2010; Keith Bradsher, “Chinese Graduates Say No Thanks to Factory Jobs,” New York Times, January 24, 2013.
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6.Goldin and Katz, Race between Education and Technology.
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7.Bessen, “Technology and Learning.”
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8.But the benefits to schooling only showed up in those regions where the seed varieties could be grown.See Rosenzweig, “Why Are There Returns to Schooling?” Note that with the weavers, education might have served to select the women who could learn the factory skills more rapidly.The women who made the effort to go to school might have been brighter and more able.
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9.Nelson, Peck, and Kalachek, “Technology, Economic Growth, and Public Policy,” pp..144–145.
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10.Bartel and Lichtenberg, “Comparative Advantage.”
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11.This distinction is frequently misunderstood.For example, the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University criticizes the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for being too rigid because occupations employ more college grads than the BLS estimates and those workers earn wage premiums.But precisely because college education prepares workers to learn on the job, they can earn higher wages even when the strictly technical requirements of the job do not require a college degree.See Center on Education and the Workforce, “Recovery.”
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12.Salzman, Kuehn, and Lowell, “Guestworkers.”
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13.Jonathan Rothwell,“The Silicon Valley Wage Premium,” The Avenue (blog), Brookings Institution, August 6, 2014, http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2014/08/06-the-silicon-valley-wage-premium-rothwell.
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14.See, for example, Catherine Rampell, “Data Reveal a Rise in College Degrees among Americans,” New York Times, June 12, 2013: “ ‘Think about jobs fifteen years ago that didn’t need any college education,’ said Sandy Baum, a senior fellow at the George Washington University Graduate School of Education.Many of them now do, she added.‘Maybe you don’t need a bachelor’s to change bedpans,’ Ms.Baum said, ‘but today if you’re an auto mechanic, you really have to understand computers and other technical things.’ ”
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15.My estimates from the Current Population Survey.
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16.Salzman, Kuehn, and Lowell, “Guestworkers.”
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17.These percentages are for hourly wages taken from the Current Population Survey Merged Outgoing Rotation Group, and the author’s calculations, comparing the mean hourly wage for workers with sixteen years of education (± 0.5) to that for workers with twelve years of education (± 0.5), excluding self-employed workers.The dashed line shows the mean for college-educated workers with less than.ve years of experience to all high school educated workers.
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18.This association does not necessarily imply causality.For example, one famous economics paper found that wage increases also tended to occur in occupations that use pencils.However, it does seem plausible that at least part of the increase in college wages relative to high school wages can be attributed to technology.
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19.Goldin and Katz, Race between Education and Technology.
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20.In 1979, college-educated workers with less than.ve years experience earned 1 percent more than workers with only a high school diploma; in 2009, they earned 16 percent more.Note that the wages of inexperienced college-educated workers are more volatile with respect to the business cycle.
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21.Stone, Van Horn, and Zukin, “Chasing the American Dream.”
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22.Abel, Deitz, and Su, “Are Recent College Graduates Finding Good Jobs?”
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