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[13]读者可以参考Steve Davis、John Haltiwanger及其合作者关于企业和就业的创造与破坏的开创性研究文献。See, for example, S. J. Davis and J. Haltiwanger,“Measuring Gross Worker and Job Flows,” inLaborStatisticsMeasurementIssues,ed. J. Haltiwanger, M. E. Manser, and R. Topel, 77 -122(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1998); S. J. Davis and J. Haltiwanger“Gross Job Flows,” inHandbookofLaborEconomics, ed. O. Ashenfelter and D. Card, vol. 3B, 2711 -2805(Amsterdam: Elsevier/ North-Holland, 1999); Haltiwanger, Jarmin, and Miranda,“Who Creates Jobs?”; R. Decker, J. Haltiwanger, R. Jarmin, and J. Miranda,“The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism,”JournalofEconomicPerspectives28, no. 3(2014):3 -24;S. J. Davis and J. Haltiwanger,“Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance”(NBER Working Paper No. 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research,Cambridge, MA, September 2014).
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[14]U. Akcigit and W. R. Kerr,“Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy126, no. 4(2018)
:1374 -1443.
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[15]C. T. Hsieh and P. J. Klenow,“The Life Cycle of Plants in India and Mexico,”Quarterly Journal of Economics129, no. 3(2014)
:1035 -1084.
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[16]P. Aghion, A. Bergeaud, T. Boppart, and S. Bunel, “Firm Dynamics and Growth Measurement in France,”Journal of the European Economic Association16, no. 4(2018)
:933 -956.
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[17]A. Maddison,The World Economy:A Millennial Perspective, Development Centre Studies(Paris: OECD, 2001).
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[18]See R. Blundell, R. Griffith, and J. Van Reenen,“Dynamic Count Models of Technological Innovation,”EconomicJournal105, no. 429(1995)
:333 -344;R. Blundell, R. Griffith, and J. Van Reenen,“Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms,”ReviewofEconomicStudies66, no. 3(1999)
:529 -554; and S. J. Nickell, “Competition and Corporate Performance,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy104, no. 4(1996)
:724 -746.
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[19]A. Hansen,“Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth,” presidential address, American Economic Association, December 28,1938,AmericanEconomicReview29, no. 1(1939):1 -15.
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[20]L. Summers, presentation at the IMF Economic Forum: Policy Responses to Crises, 14th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, November 9,2013.
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[21]R. Gordon,TheRiseandFallofAmericanGrowth(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2016).
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[22]S. Baslandze,“The Role of the IT Revolution in Knowledge Diffusion, Innovation and Reallocation,”2016 Meeting Papers No. 1509, Society for Economic Dynamics, 2016.
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[23]A. B. Atkinson, T. Piketty, and E. Saez,“Top Incomes in the Long Run of History,”JournalofEconomicLiterature49, no. 1(2011):3 -71; T. Piketty,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury(Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014).
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[24]P. Aghion, U. Akcigit, A. Bergeaud, R. Blundell, and D. Hémous,“Innovation and Top Income Inequality,”ReviewofEconomicStudies86, no. 1(2019):1 -45.
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[25]J. Williamson,“What Washington Means by Policy Reform,” inLatinAmericanAdjustment
:HowMuchHasHappened? ed. J. Williamson, vol. 1,90 -120(Washington, DC: Institution for International Economics, 1990).
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[26]R. Hausmann, D. Rodrik, and A. Velasco,“Growth Diagnostics,” inTheWashington Consensus Reconsidered: Towardsa New Global Governance, ed. N. Serra and E. Stiglitz, 324 -355(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008).
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[27]Raghuram G. Rajan and Luigi Zingales,“The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the 20th Century,”JournalofFinancialEconomics69, no. 1(2003):5 -50.
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[28]技术前沿是指技术发展的最先进水平,或者说“今天”可用的最高效的生产技术。由于创新的作用,这一前沿显然会随着时间而向前推进。
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[29]D. Acemoglu, P. Aghion, and F. Zilibotti, “Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth,”Journal of the European Economic Association4, no. 1(2006):37 -74.
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创造性破坏的力量 第2章 起飞之谜
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18世纪末兴起的持续且无间断的增长,毫无疑问是经济发展史上第一个标志性事件。在一个增长几近停滞的世界中,突然出现了前所未见的累积式扩张过程,带来人均生活水平的指数式提高。人类在18世纪的生活状况,尤其是住房、营养和公共卫生等方面,是我们今天难以想象的。在当前的发达国家,饥饿或寒冷导致的死亡已几乎绝迹,而19世纪末时仍极为普遍。在17世纪,25%~30%的新生儿会在1岁前夭折,50%活不到20岁。今天欧盟国家的婴儿死亡率则仅有4‰。
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如何解释全球GDP与人口在1820年之前的停滞?为什么欧洲自中世纪以来就是许多重大发现的诞生之地,却直到1820年才启动持续的增长?为什么第一次工业革命发生在欧洲,而非其他地方,特别是曾发明轮子与算盘的中国?起飞的发动机是什么,技术进步还是制度进步?我们将尝试在本章解答上述问题,用历史事实和数据来印证不同的增长理论。
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创造性破坏的力量 1.长期序列数据的启示:安格斯·麦迪森[1]
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