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[13]上游产业冲击具有正面效应,加上中国进口冲击在欧洲比在美国更多发生在上游产业,或许可以解释为什么有关研究(Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen,“Trade Induced Technical Change?”)发现,从欧洲的数据看,中国进口冲击对创新总体上具有正面效应。
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[14]A. Lileeva and D. Trefler,“Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant Level Productivity. .. for Some Plants,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics125,no. 3(2010)
:1051 -1099.
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[15]P. Aghion, A. Bergeaud, M. Lequien, and M. J. Melitz,“The Heterogeneous Impact of Market Size on Innovation: Evidence from French Firm-Level Exports”(NBER Working Paper No. 24600, National Bureau of Economic Research,Cambridge, MA, May 2018).
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[16]A. Flaaen, A. Hortaçsu, and F. Tintelnot,“The Production Relocation and Price Effects of U. S. Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines,”AmericanEconomicReview110, no. 7(2020)
:2103 -2127.
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[17]U. Akcigit, S. T. Ates, and G. Impullitti, “Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World”(NBER Working Paper No. 24543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, April 2018).
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[18]M. J. Melitz,“The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity,”Econometrica71, no. 6(2003)
:1695 -1725.
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[19]见本书第9章有关跨境征收碳税的讨论。
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[20]关于价值链的讨论,建议参考如下文献: P. Antràs,“Conceptual Aspects of Global Value Chains,”WorldBankEconomicReview34, no. 3(2020)
:551 -574; P. Antràs and D. Chor,“Organizing the Global Value Chain,”Econometrica81, no. 6(2013)
:2127 -2204; and P. Antràs, D. Chor, T. Fally, and R. Hillberry,“Measuringthe Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows,”AmericanEconomicReview102, no. 3(2012)
:412 -416.
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[21]关于移民与创新的关系,一本不可或缺的参考著作是: William Kerr,TheGift of Global Talent
:How Migration Shapes Business,Economy and Society(Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2018).
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[22]Costas Arkolakis, Michael Peters, and Sun Kyoung Lee,“European Immigrants and the United States’ Rise to the Technological Frontier,”2019 Meeting Paper No. 1420, Society for Economic Dynamics, 2019.
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[23]S. Bernstein, R. Diamond, T. McQuade, and B. Pousada,“The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States,” Working Paper no. 3748, Stanford Graduate School of Business, November 6,2018.
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[24]这一思想启发的研究成果包括P. Azoulay, J. S. Graff Zivin, and J. Wang, “Superstar Extinction,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics125, no. 2(2010)
:549 -589; and X. Jaravel, N. Petkova, and A. Bell,“Team-Specific Capital and Innovation,”AmericanEconomicReview108, no. 4 -5(2018)
:1034 -1073.
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[25]D. Bahar, P. Choudhury, and H. Rapoport, “Migrant Inventors and the Technological Advantage of Nations,”ResearchPolicy49, no. 9(2020).另外建议读者查阅该论文附录的参考文献。
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[26]类似的研究[如George Borjas and Kirk Doran,“The Collapse of the Soviet Unionand the Productivity of American Mathematicians,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics127, no. 3(2012)
:1143 -1203]表明
:苏联解体后的俄罗斯数学家移民对美国的新知识生产带来了积极效应。
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[27]A. Alesina, J. Harnoss, and H. Rapoport, “Birthplace Diversity and Economic Prosperity,”JournalofEconomicGrowth21, no. 2(2016)
:101 -138.请注意,作者没有直接研究多样性对东道国专利数量和质量的影响。
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[28]Kerr,The Gift of Global Talent.
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[29]See P. E. Stephan and S. G. Levin,“Exceptional Contributions to US Science by the Foreign-Born and Foreign-Educated,”PopulationResearchandPolicyReview20, no. 1 -2(2001):59 -79.
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[30]See P. Aghion and A. Roulet,Repenserl’État(Paris: Seuil, in collaboration with La République des idées, 2011).
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[31]X. Jaravel and E. Sager,“What Are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U. S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series, no. 2019 -068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2019.
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创造性破坏的力量 第14章 投资型政府与保障型政府
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2008年金融危机尚未平息,发达国家的政治领导人就开始呼吁回到最小政府,尤其是在英国和美国。他们给出的理由是,尽可能减少公共支出既有利于平衡财政预算,又能降低税收,而降低税收将帮助企业恢复利润水平,为增长而投资。
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可是这一逻辑忽略了如下事实:在自由放任经济中,自行其是的经济行为人(无论个人或企业)通常会对知识和创新投资不足。原因在于,他们不会考虑自己的投资对未来创新的正外部性。例如,个人在对自身做教育投资时不会考虑这将给同事或家人带来的积极效应。又如,企业在对创新做投资时也不会考虑其取得的技术进步对将来的创新和经济增长的积极效应。所以,我们需要一个投资型政府为促进知识和创新经济而投资。
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同理可证,自由放任经济往往会导致不平等恶化,社会流动性下降,并忽略创造性破坏(尤其是失业)对健康与福利的潜在负面影响。因此,我们需要一个保障型政府,帮助人们防范创新和创造性破坏伴随的风险。政府作为保险人的角色不限于应对异质性风险,还能帮助个人和企业防范宏观经济衰退,特别是由于战争、重大金融危机或流行病疫情等带来的冲击。
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