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70 D. Acemoglu and P Restrepo, 2018a, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (Working Paper 24196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA).
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71 Allen, 2009b, “Engels’ Pause.”
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72 E. S. Phelps, 2015, Mass Flourishing: How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge, and Change (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press), 47.
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73 出处同上， 46。
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74 O. Galor, 2011, “Inequality, Human Capital Formation, and the Process of Development,” in Handbook of the Economics of Education, ed. Hanushek, E.A., Machin, S.J. and Woessmann, L. Amsterdam: Elsevier), 4
:441-93.
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75 关于人力资本的趋势的概述，参见Wallis, 2014, “Labour Markets and Training,” 203。
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76 M. Sanderson, 1995, Education, Economic Change and Society in England 1780–1870 (Cambridge; Cambridge University Press); D. F. Mitch, 1992, The Rise of Popular Literacy in Victorian England: The Influence of Private Choice and Public Policy (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press).
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77 N. F. Crafts, 1985, British Economic Growth during the Industrial Revolution (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 73.
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78 Landes, 1969, The Unbound Prometheus, 340。戴维·米奇（David Mitch）也认为工业革命早期的工作岗位不需要工人受过很多教育，甚至不需要他们识字。（1992, The Rise of Popular Literacy in Victorian England）但19世纪晚期的工作公告表明，“识字”变得越来越必要。（D. F. Mitch, 1993, “The Role of Human Capital in the First Industrial Revolution,” in The British Industrial Revolution: An Economic Perspective, ed. J. Mokyr [Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 241-80.]）
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79 Tuttle, 1999, Hard at Work in Factories and Mines, 96 and 142; Wallis, 2014, “Labour Markets and Training,” 193.
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80 C. Goldin and K. Sokoloff, 1982, “Women, Children, and Industrialization in the Early Republic: Evidence from the Manufacturing Censuses,” Journal of Economic History 42 (4): 741-74.
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81 L. F. Katz and R. A. Margo, 2013, “Technical Change and the Relative Demand for Skilled Labor: The United States in Historical Perspective” (Working Paper 18752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA), 3.
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82 P. Gaskell, 1833, The Manufacturing Population of England, 182.
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83 参见G. Clark, 2005, “The Condition of the Working Class in England”。
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84 但技能溢价本身并不一定意味着对技能的需求，因为它也取决于供给：只有当人力资本的需求增长速度超过供给时，技能溢价才会出现。而在整个世纪技能的供应都在增加。
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85 G. Clark, 2005. “The Condition of the Working Class in England.”
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86 J. Bessen, 2015, Learning by Doing: The Real Connection between Innovation, Wages, and Wealth (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press), chapter 6.
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87 Mokyr, 2011, The Enlightened Economy, chapter 15.
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88 参见D. H. Aldcroft and M. J. Oliver, 2000, Trade Unions and the Economy: 1870–2000, (Aldershot, UK: Ashgate Publishing) 。
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技术陷阱：从工业革命到AI时代，技术创新下的资本、劳动与权力 [
:1704601979]
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技术陷阱：从工业革命到AI时代，技术创新下的资本、劳动与权力 第三部分 大平衡
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反对技术变化的卢德运动被证明是非常错误的，只要有更高薪水的工作来替代正在消失的工作。亨利·福特在密歇根州高地公园工厂发明的汽车装配线，实际上降低了所需要的平均技能水平。他将早期汽车轿厢工业的复杂操作分解开来，改成小学五年级水平的工人即可胜任的简单重复步骤。这个经济秩序支撑了广大中产阶级的兴起和相应的民主政治。
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——《政治秩序与政治衰败》，弗朗西斯·福山
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对技术进步将消灭工作机会的担忧并不新鲜。在20世纪30年代的大萧条时期，查尔斯·比尔德（Charles Beard）和其他著名的美国思想家指责工程师和科学家为大规模失业创造了条件。20世纪60年代初，随着企业首次开始严重依赖计算机，机床放缓了车间的就业增长，人们又开始害怕自动化。那时刚崭露头角的喜剧演员伍迪·艾伦在他的固定节目中提到了“自动化躁狂症”，讲述了自动电梯是如何毁掉他父亲的工作的。
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