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79 C. F. Kerry and J. Karsten, 2017, “Gauging Investment in Self-Driving Cars,” Brookings Institution, October16. https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-cars/.
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80 Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox,” 25.
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81 N. F. Crafts and T. C. Mills, 2017, “Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes” (Discussion Paper 12029, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London)。他们的发现与埃里克·巴特尔斯曼（Eric Bartelsman）的观察一致，即生产率预测表现得“非常糟糕，预测的标准误差超出了对政策有用的范围”。（2013, “ICT, Reallocation and Productivity” [Brussels: European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Afairs]）
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82 H. Jerome, 1934, “Mechanization in Industry” (Working Paper 27, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York), 19.
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83 H. R. Varian, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence, Economics, and Industrial Organization,” in The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, ed. Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 1.
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84 出处同上，15。
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85 Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson, forthcoming, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox.”
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86 N. F. Crafts, 2004, “Steam as a General Purpose Technology: A Growth Accounting Perspective,” Economic Journal 114 (495): 338–51.
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87 引自J. L. Simon, 2000, The Great Breakthrough and Its Cause (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press), 108。
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88 P. Colquhoun, 1815, A Treatise on the Wealth, Power, and Resources of the British Empire, Johnson Reprint Corporation), 68–69。也可参见J. Mokyr, 2011, The Enlightened Economy; Britain and the Industrial Revolution, 1700–1850 (London: Penguin), chapter 5, Kindle。感谢乔尔·莫基尔指出了这一点。
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89 Malthus, [1798] 2013, An Essay on the Principle of Population, 179.
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90 R. Henderson, 2017, comment on “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics, by E. Brynjolfsson, D. Rock and C. Syverson,” National Bureau of Economic Research, http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14020.pdf.
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91 J. M. Keynes, [1930] 2010, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” in Essays in Persuasion (London: Palgrave Macmillan), 321–32.
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92 V. A. Ramey and N. Francis, 2009, “A Century of Work and Leisure,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1 (2): 189–224.
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93 W. A. Sundstrom, 2006, “Hours and Working Conditions,” in Historical Statistics of the United States, Earliest Times to the Present: Millennial Edition Online, ed. S. B. Carter et al. (New York: Cambridge University Press).
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94 Ramey and Francis, 2009, “A Century of Work and Leisure.”
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95 这些是建立在特定年龄的休闲方式和生存概率之上的。出处同上。
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96 这些结果与马克·阿吉亚尔（Mark Aguiar）和埃里克·赫斯特（Erik Hurst）得出的估计有出入，他们发现在1965年以后，闲暇时间有了更大的增长。主要原因是他们把育儿归类为休闲而不是家庭生产了。参见M. Aguiar and E. Hurst, 2007, “Measuring Trends in Leisure: The Allocation of Time Over Five Decades,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (3): 969–1006。拉梅和弗朗西斯也将与孩子交谈和玩耍等活动归类为闲暇，将其他育儿任务归类为家庭生产。考虑到人们报告说与这些活动相关的幸福感更低，这种情况似乎很合理。参见J. Robinson and G. Godbey, 2010, Time for Life: The Surprising Ways Americans Use Their Time (Philadelphia: Penn State University Press.)。
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97 Keynes, [1930] 2010, “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” 322.
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98 R. L. Heilbroner, 1966, “Where Do We Go from Here?,” New York Review of Books, March 17, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1966/03/17/where-do-we-go-from-here/.
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99 D. H. Autor, 2015, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 29 (3): 8.
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100 Heilbroner, 1966, “Where Do We Go from Here?”
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101 B. Stevenson and J. Wolfers, 2013, “Subjective Well-Being and Income: Is There Any Evidence of Satiation?,” American Economic Review 103 (3): 598–604.
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102 H. Simon, 1966, “Automation,” New York Review of Books, March 26, https://www.nybooks.com/articles/1966/05/26/automation-3/.
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103 C. Stewart, 1960, “Social Implications of Technological Progress,” in Impact of Automation: A Collection of 20 Articles about Technological Change, from the Monthly Labor Review (Washington, DC: Bureau of Labor Statistics), 12.
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