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上述结论具有重要的含义。第一,随着经济发展,最优金融结构将向市场主导型的方向演进。第二,新的实证结果表明,在经济发展的不同阶段,能够较好推动经济增长的金融结构确实也是不同的。这些发现都表明,可以把金融结构作为独立的金融政策。如果最优金融结构是随着经济发展而变化的,那么在发展过程中就应该适当调整金融政策和制度。第三,政治、法律渊源、当政者的理念都可能引起一国的实际金融结构偏离其最优值,从而导致经济效率和福利的损失。因此,如果能够更好地理解最优金融结构是什么,以及偏离最优金融结构可能引起的效率与福利损失,就有可能在实际金融结构的决定中减弱政治性和理念性因素的影响。
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[1] 本文获益于与Robert Cull和Asli Demirgü-Kunt的讨论,以及2011年6月17日在美国华盛顿举行的世界银行金融结构会议上的讨论。
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徐立新是世界银行发展研究小组首席经济学家。
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[2] 本章改编自作者2011年7月在北京举行的国际经济学会第16届全球大会上发表的论文。
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[3] 技术创新风险是指与新产品开发过程相关的风险,产品创新风险是指新产品能否被市场所接纳的风险。
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[4] 同时依然存在数量众多的小银行在向非贸易品领域的劳动密集型小企业提供金融服务。
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[5] 以下四段内容大量摘自Lin,Sun and Jiang(2011),也可参见文后。
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