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[1] 本文为作者于2001年5月14日在芝加哥大学所作的D.Gale Johnson讲座首讲的讲稿。作者感谢Gary Becker、陈抗、James Heckman\,Ralph Huenemann\,大冢启二郎、George Rosen\,Jan Svejnar\,钱颖一、Kislev Yoav\,周浩以及其他讲座参与者的有益评论。刘明兴、章奇和刘培林在查阅文献、整理数据和做回归上为本文的写作提供了重要帮助,作者深表感谢。
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[2] 本文改编自“Development Strategy,Viability,and Economic Convergence,” Economic Development and Cultural Change (2003) 51 (2):277—308。经芝加哥大学许可重印。© 2003 The University of Chicago.版权所有。
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[3] 从很低的水平起步,日本人均收入用现价美元衡量,已经于1988年超过了美国,新加坡人均收入于1996年超过了美国。中国台湾、韩国和中国香港与发达国家的收入差距也都显著缩小。
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[4] 也有其他经济学家对合适技术持有类似观点,一些经济学家如Akamatsu(1962)和Takatoshi(1998)根据东亚奇迹的经验教训,使用“雁阵模式” (flying geese pattern)来描述不同发展阶段产业结构和技术扩散的特征。但是,从这个比喻里并不能得出明显的政策建议。
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[5] Griffin(1999)将发展战略分为六类:货币主义、开放经济、工业化、绿色革命、再分配和社会主义战略。
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[6] 为了简化起见,讨论时我忽略了自然资源禀赋。但是,即使将自然资源一并考虑,也并不影响讨论中得出的结论的有效性。
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