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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 EPISTEMOLOGY AND SUBTRACTIVE KNOWLEDGE
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Since Plato, Western thought and the theory of knowledge have focused on the notions of True-False; as commendable as it was, it is high time to shift the concern to Robust-Fragile, and social epistemology to the more serious problem of Sucker-Nonsucker.
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The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds.
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The perfect sucker understands that pigs can stare at pearls, but doesn’t realize he can be in an analog situation.
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It takes extraordinary wisdom and self-control to accept that many things have a logic we do not understand that is smarter than our own.
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Knowledge is subtractive, not additive; what we subtract (reduction by what does not work, what not to do), not what we add (what to do).
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They think that intelligence is about noticing things that are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns).
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Happiness; we don’t know what it means, how to measure it, and how to reach it; but we know extremely well how to avoid unhappiness.
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The imagination of the genius vastly surpasses his intellect; the intellect of the academic vastly surpasses his imagination.
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The ideal trivium education, and the least harmful one to society, would be mathematics, logic, and Latin; a double dose of Latin authors to compensate for the severe loss of wisdom that comes from mathematics; just enough mathematics and logic to control verbiage and rhetoric.
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The four most influential moderns: Darwin, Marx, Freud, and (the productive) Einstein were scholars but not academics. It has always been hard to do genuine work within institutions.
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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 预言的丑闻
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先知不是具有特殊预见力的人，只不过是对别人看到的绝大多数东西视而不见的人。
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对古人来说，预言历史事件是对（诸）神的亵渎；对我来说，这是对人类的亵渎—对有些人来说，是对科学的亵渎。
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古人很清楚，理解事件的唯一方式就是促成它们发生。
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任何作出预言或者表达意见而不必承担风险的人，都有些虚伪的意味。除非他会跟着船一起沉下去，否则这就像是看一场冒险电影。
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要让他们更加严肃地看待预报内容，可以告诉他们，在闪米特人的语言里，“预报”和“预言”是同一个词。
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塞涅卡认为，斯多葛学派的智者在国家腐败到无可挽回、自己的努力没有效果时就应该退隐。等待社会自我毁灭是更明智的做法。
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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION
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A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see.
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For the ancients, forecasting historical events was an insult to the God (s); for me, it is an insult to man—that is, for some, to science.
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