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随机生存的智慧:黑天鹅语录 预言的丑闻
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先知不是具有特殊预见力的人,只不过是对别人看到的绝大多数东西视而不见的人。
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对古人来说,预言历史事件是对(诸)神的亵渎;对我来说,这是对人类的亵渎—对有些人来说,是对科学的亵渎。
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古人很清楚,理解事件的唯一方式就是促成它们发生。
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任何作出预言或者表达意见而不必承担风险的人,都有些虚伪的意味。除非他会跟着船一起沉下去,否则这就像是看一场冒险电影。
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要让他们更加严肃地看待预报内容,可以告诉他们,在闪米特人的语言里,“预报”和“预言”是同一个词。
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塞涅卡认为,斯多葛学派的智者在国家腐败到无可挽回、自己的努力没有效果时就应该退隐。等待社会自我毁灭是更明智的做法。
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随机生存的智慧:黑天鹅语录 THE SCANDAL OF PREDICTION
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A prophet is not someone with special visions, just someone blind to most of what others see.
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For the ancients, forecasting historical events was an insult to the God (s); for me, it is an insult to man—that is, for some, to science.
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The ancients knew very well that the only way to understand events was to cause them.
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Anyone voicing a forecast or expressing an opinion without something at risk has some element of phoniness. Unless he risks going down with the ship this would be like watching an adventure movie.
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They would take forecasting more seriously if it were pointed out to them that in Semitic languages the words for forecast and “prophecy” are the same.
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For Seneca, the Stoic sage should withdraw from public efforts when unheeded and the state is corrupt beyond repair. It is wiser to wait for self-destruction.
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随机生存的智慧:黑天鹅语录 成为一名哲学家,并且保持这一状态
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要成为一名哲学家,首先走路要非常慢。
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真正的数学家能理解完整性,真正的哲学家能理解不完整性。
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25个世纪以来,一直没有出现在聪明、深度、优雅、才智和想象力方面堪比柏拉图的人—这样一个人能保护我们免受他的遗产影响。
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我为什么非得跟柏拉图过不去?绝大多数人需要超越前人,而柏拉图成功超越了所有后来人。
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做一名哲学家意味着仅仅通过思考就能弄清楚事情是什么样的,是先验的;别人只能通过错误、危机、事故和崩溃来弄清楚事情是什么样的,是后验的。
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工程师会计算而不会定义,数学家会定义而不会计算,经济学家既不会定义也不会计算。
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