打字猴:1.701710745e+09
1701710745 随机生存的智慧:黑天鹅语录 [:1701709005]
1701710746 随机生存的智慧:黑天鹅语录 ECONOMIC LIFE AND OTHER VERY VULGAR SUBJECTS
1701710747
1701710748 There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant” for which additional characterization doesn’t add information.
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1701710750 A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.
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1701710752 What they call “risk” I call opportunity; but what they call “low risk” opportunity I call sucker problem.
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1701710754 Organizations are like caffeinated dupes unknowingly jogging backward; you only hear of the few who reach their destination.
1701710755
1701710756 The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news make sense to him.
1701710757
1701710758 The left holds that because markets are stupid models should be smart; the right believes that because models are stupid markets should be smart. Alas, it never hit both sides that both markets and models are very stupid.
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1701710760 Economics is like a dead star that still seems to produce light; but you know it is dead.
1701710761
1701710762 Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises with debt spending.
1701710763
1701710764 You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about”.
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1701710766 The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
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1701710768 The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true.
1701710769
1701710770 What makes us fragile is that institutions cannot have the same virtues (honor, truthfulness, courage, loyalty, tenacity) as individuals.
1701710771
1701710772 The worst damage has been caused by competent people trying to do good; the best improvements have been brought by incompetent ones not trying to do good.
1701710773
1701710774 The difference between banks and the Mafia: banks have better legal-regulatory expertise, but the Mafia understands public opinion.
1701710775
1701710776 “It is much easier to scam people for billions than for just millions”.
1701710777
1701710778 At a panel in Moscow, I watched the economist Edmund Phelps, who got the “Nobel” for writings no one reads, theories no one uses, and lectures no one understands.
1701710779
1701710780 One of the failures of “scientific approximation” in the nonlinear domain comes from the inconvenient fact that the average of expectations is different from the expectation of averages.
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1701710782 Journalists as reverse aphorists: my statement “You need skills to get a BMW, skills plus luck to become a Warren Buffett” was summarized as “Taleb says Buffett has no skills”.
1701710783
1701710784 The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist.
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1701710786 Public companies, like human cells, are programmed for apoptosis, suicide through debt and hidden risks. Bailouts invest the process with a historical dimension.
1701710787
1701710788 In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations.
1701710789
1701710790 Fate is at its cruelest when a banker ends up in poverty.
1701710791
1701710792 We should make students recompute their GPAs by counting their grades in finance and economics backward.
1701710793
1701710794 The agency problem drives every company, thanks to the buildup of hidden risks, to maximal fragility.
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