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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 ECONOMIC LIFE AND OTHER VERY VULGAR SUBJECTS
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There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant” for which additional characterization doesn’t add information.
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A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.
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What they call “risk” I call opportunity; but what they call “low risk” opportunity I call sucker problem.
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Organizations are like caffeinated dupes unknowingly jogging backward; you only hear of the few who reach their destination.
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The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news make sense to him.
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The left holds that because markets are stupid models should be smart; the right believes that because models are stupid markets should be smart. Alas, it never hit both sides that both markets and models are very stupid.
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Economics is like a dead star that still seems to produce light; but you know it is dead.
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Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises with debt spending.
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You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about”.
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The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
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The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true.
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What makes us fragile is that institutions cannot have the same virtues (honor, truthfulness, courage, loyalty, tenacity) as individuals.
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The worst damage has been caused by competent people trying to do good; the best improvements have been brought by incompetent ones not trying to do good.
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The difference between banks and the Mafia: banks have better legal-regulatory expertise, but the Mafia understands public opinion.
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“It is much easier to scam people for billions than for just millions”.
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At a panel in Moscow, I watched the economist Edmund Phelps, who got the “Nobel” for writings no one reads, theories no one uses, and lectures no one understands.
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One of the failures of “scientific approximation” in the nonlinear domain comes from the inconvenient fact that the average of expectations is different from the expectation of averages.
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Journalists as reverse aphorists: my statement “You need skills to get a BMW, skills plus luck to become a Warren Buffett” was summarized as “Taleb says Buffett has no skills”.
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The curious mind embraces science; the gifted and sensitive, the arts; the practical, business; the leftover becomes an economist.
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Public companies, like human cells, are programmed for apoptosis, suicide through debt and hidden risks. Bailouts invest the process with a historical dimension.
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In poor countries, officials receive explicit bribes; in D.C. they get the sophisticated implicit, unspoken promise to work for large corporations.
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Fate is at its cruelest when a banker ends up in poverty.
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We should make students recompute their GPAs by counting their grades in finance and economics backward.
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The agency problem drives every company, thanks to the buildup of hidden risks, to maximal fragility.
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