打字猴:1.701879504e+09
1701879504 2000年以来的西方 [:1701877070]
1701879505 探索国家失败的新著引起反响
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1701879507 2012年出版的一部政治经济学著作获得了不同寻常的反响。六位诺贝尔经济学奖得主(从四十年前获奖的肯尼斯·阿罗到两年前获奖的彼得·戴蒙德)给予高度赞誉,尼尔·弗格森、福山等著名学者联合推荐。出版后两个月之内就有几十篇书评刊登于欧美报刊,最终进入《金融时报》《华盛顿邮报》《基督教科学箴言报》《经济学人》等评选的年度最佳书籍之列。这本书题为《国家为什么会失败:权力、繁荣与贫穷的起源》[28],作者是麻省理工学院经济学教授达龙·阿西莫格鲁和哈佛大学政治学教授詹姆斯·罗宾逊。他们都是不到五十岁的“中生代”学者,但已经在专业领域中颇负盛名,尤其是祖籍为土耳其的阿西莫格鲁,被认为是“当今经济学的天才型学者”。
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1701879509 这部著作致力于探讨发展领域的一个重大问题:为什么有些国家繁荣富足而另一些国家贫穷落后?作者反驳了地理资源决定论、文化决定论和“无知论”的假设,以大量历史(从罗马帝国以降)与现代国家为例,通过对比分析论证发现,首要原因是政治体制(institutions)的差异。但作者并不是在重弹“制度决定论”的老调,否则不可能引起如此热烈的反响。他们的理论框架包括一对范畴,即“容纳型”体制和“掠取型”体制。“容纳型”(inclusive)体制促使广泛的社会成员参与政治并分享经济财富,而“掠取型”(extractive)体制导致统治精英同时垄断政治权力和经济资本(这是人为“设计”的产物,也不会发生自然转变)。两种体制的差异会严重影响一个国家的兴衰,尤其是其长期发展的命运。这部五百多页的著作几乎没使用(作者格外擅长的)艰深的专业术语和理论,具有很强的可读性,但同时保持了高度的学术严谨,其原创性贡献和诸多洞见无法在有限的篇幅内被面面俱到地展开。
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1701879511 在获得普遍赞誉的同时,这本书也受到少数质疑,其中著名学者福山和杰弗里·萨克斯的批评格外引人注目,但都遭到了作者强烈而有力的反驳与回应。福山在《美国利益》网站的博客上发文。首先,他表示很赞赏这本书以新的论证来支持体制以及政治行动者的重要作用,不过同时他又暗示作者的论点基本无异于道格拉斯·诺斯等人多年前的研究。其次,他批评“容纳型”与“掠取型”的二分范畴过于简单和极端。最后,他还认为这种理论难以解释个别国家经济的迅速发展。[29]两位作者在回应中指出,首先,他们的理论强调制度的政治首要性和人为设计要素,而诺斯等人的工作侧重于经济与社会因素,这是最重要的区别。况且诺斯等人在论及政治变迁时恰恰明确地援引了“我们过去的研究”。其次,极端的二分概念是作者有意为之,他们在书中言明,大多数国家都处于两者之间的“灰色地带”,但始于“黑白分明”的案例分析最有助益,后来的大多数篇幅都在处理从“掠取型”到“容纳型”逐步转变的程度。最后,就一些国家的案例而言,他们在书中已经论述,它们的经济起飞始于从“掠取型”体制向(虽不充分的)“容纳型”体制的转变。而国家可以在“掠取型制度下增长”恰恰是“我们理论的一部分”,只是这种增长难以持续。[30]而对于萨克斯的长篇批评[31],两位作者逐条予以反驳,认为这些批评要么失之空泛,要么无的放矢,因而都是“轻率之言”。[32]
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1701879513 [1]The Economist, Vol. 402, No. 8768 (January 21, 2012). 这篇特别报告,除社论文章“The Rise of State Capitalism” (p. 11)之外,还包括七篇文章:“The Visible Hand” (p. 3), “Something Old, Something New” (p. 5), “New Masters of the Universe; State Capitalism’s Global Reach” (p. 6), “Theme and Variations; A Choice of Models” (p. 9), “Mixed Bag; Pros and Cons” (p. 13),“The World in Their Hands; Going Abroad” (p. 15), “And the Winner Is…; The Long View” (p. 17)。本文这一节没有另外注明的引文和资料均取自这篇报告。
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1701879515 [2] “State Capitalism,” Economist Debates, January 24, 2012 (http://www.economist.com/debate/days/view/802).
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1701879517 [3] Niall Ferguson, “We’re All State Capitalists Now,” Foreign Policy, February 9, 2012 (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/02/09/we_re_all_state_capitalists_now).
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1701879519 [4] 这六部著作包括Patrick J. Buchanan, Suicide of a Superpower (2011); Thomas L. Friedman and Michael Mandelbaum, That Used to Be Us (2011); Mark R. Levin, Ameritopia (2012); Edward Luce, Time to Start Thinking (2012); Timothy Noah, The Great Divergence (2012); Charles Murray, Coming Apart (2012)。
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1701879521 [5] Susan Glasser, America’s Biggest Growth Industry: Declinism, October 17, 2011 (http://blogs.reuters.com/susanglasser/2011/10/17/americas-biggest-growth-industry-declinism).
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1701879523 [6] Josef Joffe, “Declinism’s Fifth Wave,” The American Interest, January/February 2012.
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1701879525 [7] 参见《新共和》杂志网站的编者按:http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/magazine/99521/america-world-power-declinism。
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1701879527 [8] Robert Kagan, The World America Made (Knopf, 2012); Robert Kagan, “Not Fade Away: The Myth of American Decline,” The New Republic, February 2, 2012.
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1701879529 [9] Joseph S. Nye,“Declinist Pundits,” Foreign Policy, November 2012.
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1701879531 [10] Rolf-Dieter Heuer,“Progress Isn’t a Linear Development,” The European, June 8, 2012(http://theeuropean-magazine.com/263-heuer-rolf-dieter/788-science-and-the-public-sphere).
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1701879533 [11] C. P. Snow, The Two Cultures, London: Cambridge University Press, 2001 [1959].
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1701879535 [12] Lawrence M. Krauss, A Universe from Nothing: Why There Is Something Rather than Nothing, Free Press, 2012.
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1701879537 [13] David Albert,“On the Origin of Everything,” New York Times, March 25, 2012, BR20 of the Sunday Book Review.
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1701879539 [14] Ross Andersen,“Has Physics Made Philosophy and Religion Obsolete?”The Atlantic(April 23, 2012), http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/04/has-physics-madephilosophy-and-religion-obsolete/256203/.
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1701879541 [15] Thomas Nagel, Mind and Cosmos: Why the Materialist Neo-Darwinian Conception of Nature Is Almost Certainly False (Oxford University Press, 2012).
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1701879543 [16] Brian Leiter and Michael Weisberg,“Do You Only Have a Brain? On Thomas Nagel,” The Nation, October 22, 2012.
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1701879545 [17] Elliot Sober,“Remarkable Facts: Ending Science as We Know It,” The Boston Review, November/December 2012.
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1701879547 [18] Amartya Sen,“What Happened to Europe? Democracy and the Decisions of Bankers,” The New Republic, August 23, 2012.
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1701879549 [19] Timothy Garton Ash, “The Crisis of Europe: How the Union Came Together and Why It’s Falling Apart,” Foreign Affairs, September/October 2012.
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1701879551 [20] Jürgen Habermas and Francis Fukuyama, “The European Citizen: Just a Myth?”The Global Journal, May 18, 2012.
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1701879553 [21] Perry Anderson,“Turmoil in Europe,” New Left Review 73, January-February 2012.
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