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房债:为什么会出现大衰退,如何避免重蹈覆辙 注释
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第1章
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[1]北印第安纳的相关信息,包括直接引用的,来源如下:Jim Meenan,“1400 Monaco Jobs Lost,” South Bend Tribune,July 18,2008;James Kelleher,“Economy Slams Brakes on Winnebago,” Global and Mail (Canada),July 22,2008; Jim Meenan,“Monaco Says State Requirements Met,” South Bend Tribune,August 9,2008;Tony Pugh,“Is RV Capital of America on the Road to Ruin?,” Knight Ridder Washington Bureau,December 19,2008;Andrea Holecek,“Notices of Closings or Layoffs Tell Sad Story in Indiana,” Times (Munster,IN),August 11,2008;“Corporate Fact Sheet,” Monaco Coach Corporation,http://media.corporateir.net/media_files/IROL/67/67897/Monaco_factsheet10.11.06.pdf;Joseph Dits,“Agency Leaders Digest the News,” South Bend Tribune,July 18,2008。
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[2]止赎数据来自CoreLogic Press Release,“CoreLogic Reports 61000 Completed Foreclosures in January,” February 28,2013,http://www.corelogic.com/aboutus/news/corelogicreports61000completedforeclosuresinjanuary.aspx。收入减少数据是根据NIPA数据对GDP长期增长趋势的一个线性预测。
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[3]Timothy Classen and Richard A.Dunn对自杀风险进行了研究,“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Duration on Suicide Risk in the United States
:A New Look Using MassLayoffs and Unemployment Duration,” Health Economics 21 (2011)
:338-50; Steven J.Davis and Till von Wachter研究了收入损失,“Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall 2011。
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[4]Franklin Delano Roosevelt,“Fireside Chat,” September 30,1934.
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[5]John Maynard Keynes,The General Theory of Employment,Interest,and Money(1935; reprint,CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform,2011).
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[6]Arthur Conan Doyle,“A Scandal in Bohemia,” in The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (London
:George Newnes Ltd.,1892),http://168.144.50.205/221bcollection/canon/scan.htm.
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[7]David Beim,“It’s All about Debt,” Forbes,March 19,2009,http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/19/householddebtgdpmarketsbeim.html.
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[8]Charles Persons,“Credit Expansion,1920 to 1929,and Its Lessons,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 45 (1930)
:94-130.
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[9]Martha Olney,“Avoiding Default
:The Role of Credit in the Consumption Collapse of 1930,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1999)
:319-35.
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[10]Barry Eichengreen and Kris Mitchener,“The Great Depression as a Credit Boom Gone Wrong,” Bank for International Settlements Working Paper 137 (2003)
:36.
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[11]Olney,“Avoiding Default,” 321; Frederic Mishkin,“The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression,” Journal of Economic History 38 (1978)
:918-37.
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[12]Persons,“Credit Expansion.”
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[13]Peter Temin,Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (New York
:Norton,1976).
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[14]Reuven Glick and Kevin J.Lansing,“Global Household Leverage,House Prices,and Consumption,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter,January 11,2010.
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[15]International Monetary Fund,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt,” in World Economic Outlook
:Growth Resuming,Dangers Remain,April 2012.
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[16]Mervyn King,“Debt Deflation
:Theory and Evidence,” European Economic Review 38 (1994)
:419-45.
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[17]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,“Is the 2007 US SubPrime Financial Crisis So Different?
:An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98 (2008)
:339-44.
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[18]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,This Time Is Different (Princeton,NJ
:Princeton University Press,2009).
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[19]Oscar Jorda,Moritz Schularick,and Alan M.Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back
:Leverage,Business Cycles,and Crisis” (working paper no.17621,NBER,2011).
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[20]IMF的研究也确认了这一点,他们认为,即使没有银行业危机,家庭债务的上升也会使衰退更加严重,参见IMF,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt”。
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[21]Jorda,Schularick,and Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back,” 5.
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[22]George W.Bush,“Speech to the Nation on the Economic Crisis,” September 24,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24textbush.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
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第2章
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