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创造性破坏的力量 5.结论
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库兹涅茨把一个经济体的结构变革过程描述为两个有顺序的步骤，第一步是农业发展让位于工业发展，第二步是工业由服务业取代。我们看到，为理解这个进程，既要考虑供给侧的因素（即产品与服务的相对价格变化），也要考虑需求侧的因素（由收入水平和消费者偏好的变化导致）。
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工业化阶段是否不可避免？一方面，丹尼·罗德里克等经济学家强调制造业对促进制度发展、城市化和整个经济的技术知识传播的关键作用。[26]另一方面，印度提供了以服务业为发展基础的有趣反例，说明或许有另外的发展模式，让目前依然以农业为主导的某些国家能够避免大规模工业化阶段。未来将告诉我们，在贸易全球化、数字技术革命和服务业创新的帮助下，这种新的模式是否真正可行。直接向服务引领型经济转型的这种模式的另一个优点是环境保护效应。如前文所述，如果把交通运输业排除在外，则全球服务业产生的二氧化碳排放仅为制造业的1 /4。因此，让某些国家甚至大洲跳过大规模工业化阶段，对于在全球层面实现经济增长与环境保护的协调来说，无疑有重要意义。环境与绿色创新正好是我们下一章的主题。
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[1]Simon Kuznets,“Modern Economic Growth: Findings and Reflections” （Nobel Lecture, December 11,1971）,AmericanEconomicReview63, no. 3（1973）
:247 -258.
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[2]Simon Alder, Timo Boppart, and Andreas Müller,“A Theory of Structural Change That Can Fit the Data,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 13469, Center for Economic Policy Research, London, January 2019.
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[3]Berthold Herrendorf, Richard Rogerson, and Akos Valentinyi, “Growth and Structural Transformation,” inHandbookofEconomicGrowth, ed. Philippe Aghion and Steven Durlauf, vol. 2,855 -941（Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2014）.
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[4]Nicholas Kaldor,“Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth,” inTheTheoryofCapital, ed. F. A. Lutz and D. C. Hague（New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1961）.
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[5]Nicholas Kaldor,“Alternative Theories of Distribution,”ReviewofEconomicStudies23, no. 2（1955）:83 -100.
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[6]Thomas Piketty,CapitalintheTwenty-FirstCentury（Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014）.
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[7]不过在第6章中，我们曾指出美国的劳动收入份额自21世纪初以后下降，表明卡尔多事实在过去20年的美国不那么严格成立。
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[8]Timo Boppart,“Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts in a Growth Model with Relative Price Effects and Non-Gorman Preferences,”Econometrica82, no. 6（2014）
:2167 -2196.
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[9]波帕特采用了美国的两个数据来源: the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
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[10]这一定律最早由述William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen提出规范描述，参见William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen,“On the Performing Arts: The Anatomy of Their Economic Problems,”AmericanEconomicReview55, no. 1 /2（1965）
:495 -502.也可参见William J. Baumol, “Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of the Urban Crisis,”AmericaEconomicReview57, no. 3（1967）
:419 -420.
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[11]Baumol and Bowen,“On the Performing Arts.”
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[12]Ernst Engel,“Die Productions und Consumtionsverhältnisse des Königreichs Sachsen,”Zeitschrift des Statistischen Büreaus des Königlich-Sächsischen Ministeriums des Innern8（1857）:1 -54.
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[13]需求侧在分析结构变革中的重要性，参见Diego A. Comin, Danial Lashkari,and Martí Mestieri,“Structural Change with Long-Run Income and Price Effects”（NBER Working Paper No. 21595, National Bureau of Economic Research,Cambridge, MA, September 2015, rev. April 2020）.
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[14]关于市场规模对创新的影响，参见Daron Acemoglu and Joshua Linn,“Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics119, no. 3（2004）
:1049 -1090; and Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Matthieu Lequien, and Marc J. Melitz,“The Heterogeneous Impact of Market Size on Innovation: Evidence from French Firm-Level Exports” （NBER Working Paper No. 24600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge,MA, May 2018, rev. October 2019）.创新和技术革新可以定向的概念最早参见如下研究: Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt,“Research and Development in the Growth Process,”JournalofEconomicGrowth1, no. 1（1996）
:49 -93.之后又得到若干发展: Daron Acemoglu及其合作者，尤其是Daron Acemoglu,“Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics113, no. 4（1998）
:1055 -1089; Daron Acemoglu,“Directed Technical Change,”ReviewofEconomicStudies69, no. 4（2002）
:781 -809; Daron Acemoglu,“Equilibrium Bias of Technology,”Econometrica75, no. 5（2007）
:1371 -1409.还可参见Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo,“The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment,”AmericanEconomicReview108, no. 6（2018）
:1488 -1542.
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[15]Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt,TheEconomicsofGrowth（Cambridge, MA
:MIT Press, 2008）.
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[16]Acemoglu,“Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills?”
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[17]See, for example, David Popp,“Induced Innovation and Energy Prices,”AmericanEconomicReview92, no. 1（2002）
:160 -180; Philippe Aghion, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, David Hémous, Ralf Martin, and John Van Reenen,“Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry,”JournalofPoliticalEconomy124, no. 1（2016）
:1 -51.
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[18]本节内容基于如下研究: Timo Boppart and Franziska J. Weiss,“Non-Homothetic Preferences and Industry Directed Technical Change,” unpublished manuscript,June 2013; Acemoglu and Restrepo,“The Race between Man and Machine.”
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[19]Philippe Aghion, Benjamin F. Jones, and Charles I. Jones,“Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth,” inThe Economics of Artificial Intelligence:An Agenda,ed. Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb（Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2019）.
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[20]Joseph Stiglitz,“From Resource Curse to Blessing,”ProjectSyndicate, August 6,2012.
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[21]2010年美元价值。
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[22]我们这里采用阿西莫格鲁和罗宾逊的术语，参见Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson,Why Nations Fail
:The Origins of Power,Prosperity and Poverty（New York: Crown, 2012）,529.他们指出，包容性制度（inclusive institutions）鼓励创业和创新，而攫取性制度（extractive institutions）打击创新和私人企业，对产权保护不力，教育体系缺乏效率。
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