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创造性破坏的力量 4.结论
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创造性破坏会如何影响人们的真实生活经历？在本章中，我们指出创造性破坏将提高失业乃至更普遍的失去地位的概率。此外，它对美国人的健康造成了消极影响，但在丹麦并非如此。最后，创造性破坏对个人生活满意度有双向作用：一方面增加焦虑感，另一方面提升对未来就业和增长的期望。总体而言，创造性破坏未必会导致健康恶化、幸福感下降，一切还取决于制度环境。为争取支持并避免滑向民粹主义，必须有社会安全网来辅助创造性破坏过程。如近期的新冠疫情所示，第一个安全网是全民普及的高质量医疗服务。第二个安全网是最低收入体系，以消除贫困陷阱。第三个安全网则是弹性保障体系，给予创新企业招募和解聘员工所需的灵活性，同时给人们的职业发展提供保障。这样的保障以充分的失业保险和有效的终身培训相结合为基础，让人们能更容易找到新的工作。这里也是政府应该发挥作用的地方，作为保险人应对创造性破坏和失业带来的风险，以及作为投资人促进教育和创新。我们将在第14章以及全书结语部分更详细地探讨最后一点，并总结资本主义的未来。
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[1]Anne Case and Angus Deaton,Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism（Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2020）.
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[2]本节和第3节介绍的实证结来自: Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Angus Deaton, and Alexandra Roulet,“Creative Destruction and Subjective Wellbeing,”AmericanEconomicReview106, no. 12（2016）
:3869 -3897.
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[3]对此问题的不同分析视角，可参阅Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt,“Growth and Unemployment,”ReviewofEconomicStudies61, no. 3（1994）
:477 -494; Dale T. Mortensen and Christopher A. Pissarides,“Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment,”ReviewofEconomicStudies61,no. 3（1994）
:397 -415; Andreas Hornstein, Per Krusell, and Giovanni L. Violante,“The Replacement Problem in Frictional Economies: A Near Equivalence Result,”Journal of the European Economic Association3, no. 5（2005）
:1007 -1057.
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[4]Aghion and Howitt,“Growth and Unemployment. ”
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[5]参见本书第1章有关参考文献，比如Steven Davis and John Haltiwanger,“Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance” （NBER Working Paper No. 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, December 2014）.
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[6]Aghion, Akcigit, Deaton, and Roulet,“Creative Destruction and Subjective Well Being.”
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[7]日期t-1到日期t的工作创造率是指现有机构扩张或新机构创立带来的全部新工作的总数，除以该就业区在日期t-1到日期t的工作岗位平均数。与之类似，工作摧毁率指机构收缩或关闭导致的工作损失的总数，除以该就业区在该时段的工作岗位平均数。
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[8]Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Ari Hyytinen, and Otto Toivanen,“On the Returns to Invention within Firms: Evidence from Finland,”AEAPapersandProceedings108（2018）
:208 -212.
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[9]表11.1来自如下研究的启发: Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and Fabrice Murtin,“The Relationship between Health and Growth: When Lucas Meets Nelson-Phelps”（NBER Working Paper No. 15813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, March 2010），并更新了1961—2017年的数据。
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[10]A. Deaton,The Great Escape
:Health,Wealth,and the Origins of Inequality（Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2013）.
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[11]Anne Case and Angus Deaton,“Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity1（2017）
:397 -476.
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[12]Daniel Sullivan and Till von Wachter,“Job Displacement and Mortality: An Analysis Using Administrative Data,”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics124, no. 3（2009）
:1265 -1306.
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[13]Alexandra Roulet,“The Causal Effect of Job Loss on Health: The Danish Miracle,” in “Essays in Labor Economics” （Ph. D. diss. , Harvard University,2017）.
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[14]对任职时间不足12年的管理层员工，不存在离职金。对任职时间为12~17年的，离职金等于1个月的工资。对任职时间超出17年的员工，离职金最多为3个月的工资。
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[15]Andrew E. Clark and Claudia Senik-Leygonie, eds. ,HappinessandEconomicGrowth
:Lessons from Developing Countries（Oxford: Oxford University Press,2014）. See also Cecile Daumas,“La croissance harmonise le bonheur de tous,”interview with Claudia Senik,Libération, October 24,2014.
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[16]See Richard A. Easterlin,“Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence,” inNations and Householdsin Economic Growth, ed. Paul David and Melvin Reder, 89 -125（New York: Academic Press, 1974）. Claudia Senik对这一悖论的解释是，繁荣与标准化的幸福度指数其实密切相关
:福利国家的发展让有形公共品（教育和医疗）与无形公共品（公民权利、政治多元化）变得更为广泛可及。
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[17]See Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen, and Jean Fitoussi, “Report by the Commissionon the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress,”CMEPSP, Paris, 2009.
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[18]Hadley Cantril,PatternofHumanConcerns（New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1965）.
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[19]Aghion, Akcigit, Deaton, and Roulet, “Creative Destruction and Subjective Well-Being.”
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[20]关于法国的弹性保障，参见Olivier Blanchard and Jean Tirole,Protectiondel’emploietprocéduresdelicenciement（Paris: La Documentation française, 2003）.
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[21]See“Towards Common Principles of Flexicurity: More and Better Jobs through Flexibility and Security,” Communication to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM（2007）359, Brussels, June 27,2007, https: // eur-lex.europa. eu / legal-content/ EN/ TXT/ ? uri = celex%3A52007DC0359.
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[22]See, for example, Ove K. Pedersen,“Flexicurity, mobication og europæisk beskæftigelsespolitik,” inDansk flexicurity
:Fleksibilitet og sikkerhed på arbejdsmarkedet, ed. Thomas Bredgaard and P. Kongshøj Madsen, 265 -287（Copenhagen: Hans Reitzels Forlag, 2015）.
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