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参加狂欢节套圈的游戏时，你可能会被那些动物模型或者其他奖励所吸引。这个游戏的开销仅仅只是奖励价值的一部分。但狂欢都是为了赚钱的，他们会想办法让“庄家”有利。游戏的预期价值总是比开销稍低。尽管有少数人得到了大奖，获得了比开销更多的奖励，但从长远来看，赚钱的是狂欢节。
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赌场也是这样赚钱的。
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275 医生处理这些数据也很困难：我曾经担任了好几年的医学院老师，我知道这一点。此外，大多数医学院的学生都无法评价信息渠道，因为他们没有学会这样的知识，他们也不愿意。Thompson, N., Lewis, S., Brennan, P., & Robinson, J. (2010). Information literacy: Are final-year medical radiation science students on the pathway to success? Journal of Allied Health, 39(3), e83–e89. 公正地说，医学训练一定会掺杂很多细节，任务也很繁重，除预先设置的课程外，大多数学生都没有太多时间——太多信息需要在相对较短的时间内吸收。
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275 “医生掌握的关于疗效的知识……”：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
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275全美每年都有50万人接受这种手术：University of Michigan Health System. (2013). Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). 摘自 http:// www. med. umich. edu/ cardiac-surgery/ patient/ adult/ adultcandt/ cabg. shtml。
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275 接受过这种手术的病人大多没有得到任何实际生存价值：Murphy, M. L., Hultgren, H. N., Detre, K., Thomsen, J., & Takaro, T. (1977). Treatment of chronic stable angina: A preliminary report of survival data of the randomized Veterans Administration Cooperative Study. New England Journal of Medicine, 297(12), 621–627.
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276 ……他们会相信它真的有效……：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
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276 血管成形术在一年的时间内从0增加到10万例：Park, A. (2013, March–April). A cardiac conundrum: How gaps in medical knowledge affect matters of the heart. Harvard Magazine, 25–29.
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276 但医学实验并没有显示任何生存益处：Ellis, S. G., Mooney, M. R., George, B. S., Da Silva, E. E., Talley, J. D., Flanagan, W. H., & Topol, E. J. (1992). Randomized trial of late elective angioplasty versus conservative management for patients with residual stenoses after thrombolytic treatment of myocardial infarction. Treatment of Post-Thrombolytic Stenoses (TOPS) Study Group. Circulation, 86(5), 1400–1406.
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Hueb, W., Lopes, N. H., Gersh, B. J., Soares, P., Machado, L. A., Jatene, F. B., … Ramires, J. A. (2007). Five-year follow-up of the Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study (MASS II): A randomized controlled clinical trial of 3 therapeutic strategies for multivessel coronary artery disease. Circulation, 115(9), 1082–1089.
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Michels, K. B., & Yusuf, S. (1995). Does PTCA in acute myocardial infarction affect mortality and reinfarction rates? A quantitative overview ( meta-analysis) of the randomized clinical trials. Circulation, 91(2), 476–485.
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276 只能将他们的寿命延长1天：Jones, D. S. (2012). Broken hearts: The tangled history of cardiac care. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
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276需要做出选择的病人：Engelmann, J. B., Capra, C. M., Noussair, C., & Berns, G. S. (2009). Expert financial advice neurobiologically “offloads” financial decision-making under risk. PLoS One, 4(3), e4957.
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276 将决定权转交给专家：Hertz, N. (2013, October 20). Why we make bad decisions. The New York Times, p. SR6.
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276 前列腺癌的治疗：在此我借鉴了自己之前出版的一部作品。Levitin, D. J. (2011, October 9). Heal thyself. [Review of the book Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you by J. Groopman & P. Hartzband]. The New York Times Sunday Book Review, p. BR28.
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276 250万男性：Howlader, N., Noone, A. M., Krapcho, M., Neyman, N., Aminou, R., Waldron, W., … Cronin, K. A. (Eds.). SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1975–2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations). Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute, based on November 2011 SEER data submission. 摘自 http:// seer. cancer. gov / archive/ csr/ 1975_ 2009_ pops09/。
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276 3%的人死于这种疾病：美国癌症协会. (2013). What are the key statistics about prostate cancer? 摘自 http:// www. cancer. org。
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277 激进的治疗方案来移除癌症：美国癌症协会. (2013). Prostate cancer treatment (PDQ®): Treatment option overview. 摘自 http:// www .cancer. gov。
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Scholz, M., & Blum, R. (2010). Invasion of the prostate snatchers: No more unnecessary biopsies, radical treatment or loss of sexual potency. New York, NY: Other Press, pp. 20–21.
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277 伴随癌症死亡：Groopman, J., & Hartzband, P. (2011). Your medical mind: How to decide what is right for you. New York, NY: Penguin, pp. 246–247.
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Hessels, D., Verhaegh, G. W., Schalken, J. A., & Witjes, J. A. (2004). Applicability of biomarkers in the early diagnosis of prostate cancer. Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics, 4(4), 513–526.
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277 那副作用呢?：Hugosson, J., Stranne, J., & Carlsson, S. V. (2011). Radical retropubic prostatec-tomy: A review of outcomes and side-effects. Acta Oncologica, 50(Suppl. 1), 92–97.
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National Cancer Institute. (2014). Stage I prostate cancer treatment. 摘自 http:// www. cancer. gov
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Prostate Doctor. (2011, June 4). Shortening of the penis after prostatectomy: Yes, it really happens [Web log message]. 摘自 http:// myprostatedoc . blogspot. com。
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Talcott, J. A., Rieker, P., Clark, J. A., Propert, K. J., Weeks, J. C., Beard, C. J., … Kantoff, P. W. (1998). Patient-reported symptoms after primary therapy for early prostate cancer: Results of a prospective cohort study. Journal of Clinical Oncology, 16(1), 275–283, p. 275.
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