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8.when we search the Internet: D. M. Wegner and A. F. Ward (2013). “How Google Is Changing Your Brain.”Scientific American309(6): 58–61; and M. Fisher, M. K. Goddu, and F. C. Keil (2015). “Searching for Explanations: How the Internet Inflates Estimates of Internal Knowledge.”Journal of Experimental Psychology: General144(3): 674–687. See also A. F. Ward (2013). “Supernormal: How the Internet Is Changing Our Memories and Our Minds.”Psychological Inquiry24(4): 341–348.
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9.WebMD: Adrian F. Ward (May 2015), “Blurred Boundaries: Internet Search, Cognitive Self-Esteem, and Confidence in Decision-Making.” Talk presented at the annual meeting of the Association for Psychological Science, New York, New York.
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10.fifty microprocessors each: auto.howstuffworks.com/under-the-hood/trends-innovations/car-computer.htm.
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11.Elon Musk: fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview.
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12.compromise overall safety: S. Greengard (2009). “Making Automation Work.”Communications of the ACM52(12): 18–19.
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13.pilots … didn’t know what to do: www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-airfrance-447-6611877.
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14.GPS master: Examples can be found at www.straightdope.com/columns/read/3119/has-anyone-gotten-hurt-or-killed-following-bad-gps-directions.
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15.Royal Majesty. The story is described in much greater detail in chapter 8 of A. Degani (2004).Taming HAL: Designing Interfaces Beyond 2001. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
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16.more than on financial incentives: E. Bonabeau (2009). “Decisions 2.0: The Power of Collective Intelligence.”MIT Sloan Management Review50(2): 45–52.
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17.OED … is still doing so: For an engaging history of the OED, see S. Winchester (1998).The Professor and the Madman: A Tale of Murder, Insanity, and the Making of the Oxford English Dictionary.New York: HarperCollins.
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18.PK-35: The story and conclusion come from E. Bonabeau (2009). “Decisions 2.0: The Power of Collective Intelligence.”MIT Sloan Management Review50(2): 45–52.
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19.Amazon ratings are not all they’re cracked up to be:B. De Langhe, P. M. Fernbach, and D. R. Lichtenstein (2015). “Navigating by the Stars: Investigating the Actual and Perceived Validity of Online User Ratings.”Journal of Consumer Research42: 817–830.
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20.The Wisdom of Crowds: F. Galton (1907).Vox Populi (the Wisdom of Crowds).First published inNature75(1949): 450–451. The topic is discussed in detail in J. Surowiecki (2005).The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday Anchor.
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21.within 1 percent of the ox’s true weight of 1,198 pounds: Despite frequent reports saying otherwise, he did not find that the mean weight was within 1 pound of the ox’s true weight. Nor did he find that the average was better than any individual guess.
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22.prediction market: K. J. Arrow, R. Forsythe, M. Gorham, R. Hahn, R. Hanson, J. O. Ledyard, S. Levmore, et al. (2008). “The Promise of Prediction Markets.”Science320(5878): 877–878.
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第八章 科学的错觉
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1.a giant sledgehammer: smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-really-fought-against-264412/?all.
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2.increasingly bizarre: Ibid.
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3.James Inhofe’s snowball: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/02/26/jim-inhofes-snowball-has-disproven-climate-change-once-and-for-all.
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4.Inhofe quote: nytimes.com/2003/08/05/science/politics-reasserts-itself-in-the-debate-over-climate-change-and-its-hazards.html.
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5.cases of measles spiked: cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html.
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6.10 percent of parents: dailycamera.com/news/ci_19848081.
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7.doctors are not to be trusted: www.thehealthyhomeeconomist.com/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-vaccination.
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8.increase to about 70 percent: These results are summarized in the 2014 version of the Science and Engineering Indicators report.
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9.MMR vaccine: B. Nyhan, J. Reifler, S. Richey, and G. L. Freed (2014). “Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial.”Pediatrics133(4): e835–e842.
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