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17.OED … is still doing so: For an engaging history of the OED, see S. Winchester (1998).The Professor and the Madman: A Tale of Murder, Insanity, and the Making of the Oxford English Dictionary.New York: HarperCollins.
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18.PK-35: The story and conclusion come from E. Bonabeau (2009). “Decisions 2.0: The Power of Collective Intelligence.”MIT Sloan Management Review50(2): 45–52.
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19.Amazon ratings are not all they’re cracked up to be:B. De Langhe, P. M. Fernbach, and D. R. Lichtenstein (2015). “Navigating by the Stars: Investigating the Actual and Perceived Validity of Online User Ratings.”Journal of Consumer Research42: 817–830.
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20.The Wisdom of Crowds: F. Galton (1907).Vox Populi (the Wisdom of Crowds).First published inNature75(1949): 450–451. The topic is discussed in detail in J. Surowiecki (2005).The Wisdom of Crowds. New York: Doubleday Anchor.
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21.within 1 percent of the ox’s true weight of 1,198 pounds: Despite frequent reports saying otherwise, he did not find that the mean weight was within 1 pound of the ox’s true weight. Nor did he find that the average was better than any individual guess.
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22.prediction market: K. J. Arrow, R. Forsythe, M. Gorham, R. Hahn, R. Hanson, J. O. Ledyard, S. Levmore, et al. (2008). “The Promise of Prediction Markets.”Science320(5878): 877–878.
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第八章 科学的错觉
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1.a giant sledgehammer: smithsonianmag.com/history/what-the-luddites-really-fought-against-264412/?all.
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2.increasingly bizarre: Ibid.
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3.James Inhofe’s snowball: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/02/26/jim-inhofes-snowball-has-disproven-climate-change-once-and-for-all.
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4.Inhofe quote: nytimes.com/2003/08/05/science/politics-reasserts-itself-in-the-debate-over-climate-change-and-its-hazards.html.
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5.cases of measles spiked: cdc.gov/measles/cases-outbreaks.html.
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6.10 percent of parents: dailycamera.com/news/ci_19848081.
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7.doctors are not to be trusted: www.thehealthyhomeeconomist.com/six-reasons-to-say-no-to-vaccination.
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8.increase to about 70 percent: These results are summarized in the 2014 version of the Science and Engineering Indicators report.
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9.MMR vaccine: B. Nyhan, J. Reifler, S. Richey, and G. L. Freed (2014). “Effective Messages in Vaccine Promotion: A Randomized Trial.”Pediatrics133(4): e835–e842.
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10.Science Mike: kernelmag.dailydot.com/issue-sections/headline-story/14304/science-mike-mystical-experience-podcast.
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11.Science Mike quote
:mikemchargue.com/blog/2015/1/11/new-podcast-ask- science-mike.
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12.“Earth revolves around the Sun”: www.techtimes.com/articles/3493/20140216/dumb-101-1-in-4-americans-is-ignorant-that-earth-revolves-around-the-sun.htm.
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13.consume more pharmaceuticals: V. Ilyuk, L. Block, and D. Faro (2014). “Is It Still Working? Task Difficulty Promotes a Rapid Wear-Off Bias in Judgments of Pharmacological Products.”Journal of Consumer Research41(3): 775–793.
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14.AAAS conclusion: Statement by the AAAS Board of Directors on Labeling of Genetically Modified Foods. American Association for the Advancement of Science, October 20, 2012. www.aaas.org/sites/default/files/AAAS_GM_statement.pdf.
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15.European Commission conclusion: A Decade of EU-funded GMO Research, 2001–2010. European Commission: Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, Biotechnology. ec.europa.eu/research/biosociety/pdf/a_decade_of_eu-funded_gmo_research.pdf.
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16.Florida orange crop: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/28/science/a-race-to-save-the-orange-by-altering-its-dna.html?page- wanted=all&_r=0.
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17.sunlight cannot get stuck in a window: Y. Zheng, L. E. Bolton, and J. W. Alba (working paper). “How Things Work: Production Matters in Technology Acceptance.”
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18.oversimplification of how the immune system works: www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/how-to-boost-your-immune-system.
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