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在非线性领域，“科学估计”的失败之一在于，期望值的平均值跟平均值的期望值并不一样(2)。
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记者跟格言家的思路正好相反：我提出“你需要技能才能赢得宝马车，需要技能和魔鬼般的运气才能变成沃伦·巴菲特”。记者们对此的总结是，“塔勒布认为巴菲特不具有任何技能”。
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好奇的人喜欢科学，敏感而有天赋的人喜欢艺术，实干的人喜欢商业，剩下的人只好当经济学家了。
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上市公司像人体细胞一样，最终会衰亡，因为债务和潜在风险而自己毁灭。救市行为让这一过程增添了历史效应。
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在穷国，官员们可以收下明摆着的贿赂；在华盛顿，他们会接受复杂的、隐含的、不说出口的暗示，让他们替大企业工作。
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命运最残酷的时候，银行家也会陷入穷困之中。
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我们应该让学生重新计算学分，方法是把财务和经济学方面的得分算成负数。
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机构问题会导致隐含风险的增加，让所有公司的脆弱程度最大化。
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在政治里，我们要么选择酷爱战争和民族国家的大企业代表，要么选择盲目的、在认识论上骄横无知的大雇主服务者，但我们至少还有得选择。
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(1) 这是某些人对麦道夫欺诈案的看法。
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(2) 不要因为一条河“平均”只有一米深就试图趟过去。这一规律又叫做詹森不等式。
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随机生存的智慧：黑天鹅语录 ECONOMIC LIFE AND OTHER VERY VULGAR SUBJECTS
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There are designations, like “economist”, “prostitute”, or “consultant” for which additional characterization doesn’t add information.
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A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a “solution” and creates a problem.
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What they call “risk” I call opportunity; but what they call “low risk” opportunity I call sucker problem.
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Organizations are like caffeinated dupes unknowingly jogging backward; you only hear of the few who reach their destination.
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The best test of whether someone is extremely stupid (or extremely wise) is whether financial and political news make sense to him.
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The left holds that because markets are stupid models should be smart; the right believes that because models are stupid markets should be smart. Alas, it never hit both sides that both markets and models are very stupid.
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Economics is like a dead star that still seems to produce light; but you know it is dead.
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Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises with debt spending.
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You can be certain that the head of a corporation has a lot to worry about when he announces publicly that “there is nothing to worry about”.
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The stock market, in brief: participants are calmly waiting in line to be slaughtered while thinking it is for a Broadway show.
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The main difference between government bailouts and smoking is that in some rare cases the statement “this is my last cigarette” holds true.
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