1702910765 [416]Michael Forsythe，“China Issues Report on U.S.Human Rights Re-cord, in Annual Tit for Tat，”New York Times, June 26，2015.

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1702910767 [417]据五角大楼称，2017年9月，美国驻伊拉克部队约8 900人。Christo-pher Woody，“There’s Confusion about US Troop Levels in the Middle East and Trump May Keep It That Way，”Business Insider, November 28，2017.

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1702910769 [418]Helene Cooper，“Putting Stamp on Afghan War, Obama Will Send 17 000 Troops，”New York Times, February 17，2009；Eric Schmitt，“Obama Issues Order for More Troops in Afghanistan，”New York Times, November 30，2009；Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Helene Cooper，“Obama Adds Troops, but Maps Exit Plan，”New York Times, December 1，2009；Mark Landler，“U.S.Troops to Leave Afghanistan by End of 2016，”New York Times, May 27，2014.

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1702910771 [419]Mark Landler，“Obama Says He Will Keep More Troops in Afghanistan than Planned，”New York Times, July 6，2016.

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1702910773 [420]截至2014年，美国已承诺为阿富汗重建提供1 090亿美元。杜鲁门政府向马歇尔计划承诺了1 034亿美元（经通胀调整）。在阿富汗花费的1 090亿美元中，有620亿美元被用于组建安全部队。Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, July 30，2014，https：//www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2014-07-30qr.pdf.到2016年底，美国在阿富汗的重建上花费了1 170亿美元。Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, January 30，2017，https：//www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2017-01-30qr.pdf.这份报告引用了一项研究，该研究估计，在阿富汗和伊拉克冲突中，“至少有300亿美元，甚至可能高达600亿美元，因合同浪费和欺诈而损失”。

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1702910775 [421]关于利比亚惨败的详细讨论，参见Foreign Affairs Committee, British House of Commons，“Libya：Examination of Intervention and Collapse and the UK’s Future Policy Options，”September 9，2016。也见Jo Becker and Scott Shane，“The Libya Gamble，”Parts 1 and 2，New York Times, February 27，2016，https：//www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/hillary-clinton-libya.html and https：//www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us/politics/libya-isis-hillary-clinton.html；Alan J.Kuperman，“A Model Humanitarian Intervention？Reassess-ing NATO’s Libya Campaign，”International Security 38，no.1（Summer 2013）：105—136；Dominic Tierney，“The Legacy of Obama’s‘Worst Mistake，’”At-lantic Monthly, April 15，2016。

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1702910777 [422]Tim Anderson, The Dirty War on Syria：Washington, Regime Change and Resistance（Montreal：Global Research Publishers，2016）；Stephen Gowns, Washington’s Long War on Syria（Montreal：Baraka Books，2017）；Mark Maz-zetti, Adam Goldman, and Michael S.Schmidt，“Behind the Death of a＄1 Bil-lion Secret C.I.A.War in Syria，”New York Times, August 2，2017；Jeffrey D.Sachs，“America’s True Role in Syria，”Project Syndicate, August 30，2016.

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1702910779 [423]Scott Wilson and Joby Warrick，“Assad Must Go, Obama Says，”Washington Post, August 18，2011；Steven Mufson，“‘Assad Must Go’：These 3 Little Words Are Huge Obstacle for Obama on Syria，”Washington Post, Octo-ber 19，2015.

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1702910781 [424]Mazzetti, Goldman, and Schmidt，“Behind the Death of a＄1 Billion Secret C.I.A.War in Syria.”

1702910782

1702910783 [425]叙利亚人口2 300万，其中约610万是在国内的流离失所者，480万是生活在叙利亚境外的难民。大约1 350万叙利亚人需要人道主义援助。Unit-ed Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs，“Syrian Arab Re-public，”http：//www.unocha.org/syria.

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1702910785 [426]Helene Cooper and Mark Landler，“White House and Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak’s Exit，”New York Times, February 3，2011；Tim Ross, Mat-thew Moore, and Steven Swinford，“Egypt Protests：America’s Secret Backing for Rebel Leaders behind Uprising，”Telegraph, January 28，2011；Anthony Sha-did，“Obama Urges Faster Shift of Power in Egypt，”New York Times, February 1，2011.

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1702910787 [427]Shadi Hamid，“Islamism, the Arab Spring, and the Failure of America’s Do-Nothing Policy in the Middle East，”Atlantic Monthly, October 9，2015；Emad Mekay，“Exclusive：US Bankrolled Anti-Morsi Activists, Al Jazeera, July 10，2013；Dan Roberts，“US in Bind over Egypt after Supporting Morsi but En-couraging Protesters，”Guardian, July 3，2013.

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1702910789 [428]关于杀害兄弟会成员及其盟友，参见“All According to Plan：The Rab’a Massacre and Mass Killings of Protestors in Egypt，”Human Rights Watch, August 12，2014，https：//www.hrw.org/report/2014/08/12/all-according-plan/raba-massacre-and-mass-killings-protesters-egypt。关于美国的法律和埃及的政变，参见Max Fischer，“Law Says the U.S.Is Required to Cut Aid after Coups.Will It？”Washington Post, July 3，2013；Peter Baker，“A Coup？Or Something Else？＄1.5 Billion in U.S.Aid Is on the Line，”New York Times, July 4，2013。关于美国对政变的回应，参见Amy Hawthorne，“Congress and the Reluctance to Stop US Aid to Egypt，”MENA Source, Atlantic Council, Washington, DC, January 14，2014。

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1702910791 [429]Hamid，“Islamism, the Arab Spring, and the Failure of America’s Do-Nothing Policy in the Middle East.”美国还为沙特阿拉伯在也门内战（2015年至今）中的野蛮军事干预提供了关键援助（空中加油、情报、提供炸弹）。沙特空军针对平民目标的大规模轰炸行动是也门人民遭受巨大痛苦的主要原因。

1702910792

1702910793 [430]David E.Sanger and Judith Miller，“Libya to Give Up Arms Programs, Bush Announces，”New York Times, December 20，2003.

1702910794

1702910795 [431]U.S.Army and Marine Corps, Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3—24（Chicago：University of Chicago Press，2007），pp.2，43.

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1702910797 [432]参见Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and George W.Downes，“Intervention and Democracy，”International Organization 60，no.3（Summer 2006）：627—649；William Easterly, Shanker Satyanath, and Daniel Berger，“Superpower In-terventions and Their Consequences for Democracy：An Empirical Inquiry”（Na-tional Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.13992，Cambridge, MA, May 2008）；Andrew Enterline and J.Michael Greig，“The History of Imposed Democracy and the Future of Iraq and Afghanistan，”Foreign Policy Analysis 4，no.4（October 2008）：321—347；Nils Petter Gleditsch, Lene Siljeholm Christians-en, and Havard Hegre，“Democratic Jihad？Military Intervention and Democra-cy”（World Bank Research Policy Paper No.4242，Washington, DC, June 2007）；Arthur A.Goldsmith，“Making the World Safe for Partial Democracy？Questioning the Premises of Democracy Promotion，”International Security 33，no.2（Fall 2008）：120—147；Jeffrey Pickering and Mark Peceny，“Forging De-mocracy at Gunpoint，”International Studies Quarterly 50，no.3（September 2006）：556。

1702910798

1702910799 [433]Enterline and Greig，“The History of Imposed Democracy，”p.341.

1702910800

1702910801 [434]Pickering and Peceny，“Forging Democracy at Gunpoint，”p.556.

1702910802

1702910803 [435]Alexander B.Downes and Jonathan Monten，“Forced to Be Free：Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization，”International Security 37，no.4（Spring 2013）：94.

1702910804

1702910805 [436]George W.Downes and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita，“Gun-Barrel Diplo-macy Has Failed Time and Again，”Los Angeles Times, February 4，2004.

1702910806

1702910807 [437]Pickering and Peceny，“Forging Democracy at Gunpoint，”p.554.

1702910808

1702910809 [438]Easterly, Satyanath, and Berger，“Superpower Interventions and Their Consequences for Democracy，”p.1.

1702910810

1702910811 [439]美国及其欧洲盟国有时宣传波斯尼亚是一场成功的干预。毫无疑问，西方在1995年停止了波斯尼亚的血腥冲突，但今天它仍不是一个独立的国家，因为主要由欧盟和美国组成的高级代表办公室在管治波斯尼亚上发挥着核心作用。此外，即使波斯尼亚是独立的，它也不是一个民主国家，这主要是因为它的宪法违反了《欧洲人权公约》。最后，欧盟在波斯尼亚保持军事存在，以防止敌对派系重新发动战争。

1702910812

1702910813 [440]对于这一案例的更全面的描述，参见John J.Mearsheimer，“Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault，”Foreign Affairs 93，no.5（September/Octo-ber 2014）：77—89；John J.Mearsheimer，“Moscow’s Choice，”Foreign Affairs 93，no.6（November/December 2014）：175—178。

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