1702910980
1702910981
[524]Doyle，“Liberalism and World Politics，”p.1159.也可参见Larry Dia-mond，“Facing Up to the Democratic Recession，”Journal of Democracy 26，no.1（January 2015）：141—155；Ethan B.Kapstein and Nathan Converse, The Fate of Young Democracies（New York：Cambridge University Press，2008）；Juan J.Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation：Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe（Baltimore：Johns Hopkins University Press，1996）；Ko Maeda，“Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown：A Competing Risk Analysis of Democratic Durability，”Journal of Politics 72，no.4（October 2010）：1129—1143；Dan Slater, Benjamin Smith, and Gautam Nair，“Economic Origins of Democratic Breakdown？The Redistribu-tive Model and the Postcolonial State，”Perspectives on Politics 12，no.2（June 2014）：353—374。
1702910982
1702910983
[525]事实上，三位著名学者认为当代“美国有倒退的危险”。Robert Mick-ey, Steven Levitsky, and Lucan A.Way，“Is America Still Safe for Democra-cy？”Foreign Affairs 96，no.3（May/June 2017）：20—29.也可参见Steven Lev-itsky and Daniel Ziblatt, How Democracies Die（New York：Crown，2018）。
1702910984
1702910985
[526]Jonathan Kirshner, Appeasing Bankers：Financial Caution on the Road to War（Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press，2007）；Beth Simmons，“Pax Mercatoria and the Theory of the State，”in Economic Interdependence and Inter-national Conflict, ed.Edward D.Mansfield and Brian M.Pollins（Ann Arbor：University of Michigan Press，2003），pp.31—43；Etel Solingen，“Internationali-zation, Coalitions, and Regional Conflict and Cooperation，”in Mansfield and Pollins, Economic Interdependence and International Conflict, pp.60—68.
1702910986
1702910987
[527]Norman Angell, The Great Illusion：A Study of the Relationship of Mili-tary Power in Nations to Their Economic and Social Advantage（London：William Heinemann，1910）.
1702910988
1702910989
[528]Richard N.Rosecrance, The Rise of the Trading State：Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World（New York：Basic Books，1986）.
1702910990
1702910991
[529]Erik Gartzke，“The Capialist Peace，”American Journal of Poltical Sci-ence 51，no.1（January 2007）：166—191；Erik Gartzke, Quan Li, and Charles Boehmer，“Investing in the Peace：Economic Interdependence and International Conflict，”International Organization 55，no.2（Spring 2001）：391—438.
1702910992
1702910993
[530]Patrick J.McDonald, The Invisible Hand of Peace：Capitalism, the War Machine, and International Relations Theory（New York：Cambridge University Press，2009），p.5.
1702910994
1702910995
[531]Stephen G.Brooks, Producing Security：Multinational Corporations, Globalization, and the Changing Calculus of Conflict（Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press，2005）.
1702910996
1702910997
[532]Dale C.Copeland，“Economic Interdependence and War：A Theory of Trade Expectations，”International Security 20，no.4（Spring 1996）：5—41；Copeland, Economic Interdependence and War.
1702910998
1702910999
[533]John J.Mearsheimer, Conventional Deterrence（Ithaca, NY：Cornell U-niversity Press，1983）.
1702911000
1702911001
[534]有人可能会认为，这一体系中其他经济上相互依存的国家将努力阻止这两个竞争对手的相互斗争，因为担心随后的战争会损害中立国家的经济。然而，正如尤金·霍尔茨和达里尔·普雷斯所指出的：“战争对中立国家造成的成本通常被夸大了；事实上，许多中立国从战争引起的经济变化中的获利微乎其微。”Eugene Gholz and Darryl G.Press，“The Effects of Wars on Neutral Counties：Why It Doesn’t Pay to Preserve the Peace，”Security Studies 10，no.4（Summer 2001）：3.
1702911002
1702911003
[535]Jack S.Levy and Katherine Barbieri，“Trading with the Enemy during Wartime，”Security Studies 13，no.3（Spring 2004）：2，7.也见Charles H.Anderton and John R.Carter，“The Impact of War on Trade：An Interrupted Time-Series Study，”Journal of Peace Research 38，no.4（July 2001）：445—457；Katherine Barbieri and Jack S.Levy，“Sleeping with the Enemy：The Im-pact of War on Trade，”Journal of Peace Research 36，no.4（July 1999）：463—479；Katherine Barbieri and Jack S.Levy，“The Trade-Disruption Hypothesis and the Liberal Economic Theory of Peace，”in Globalization and Armed Conflict, ed.Gerald Schneider, Katherine Barbieri, and Nils Petter Gleditsch（Lanham, MD：Rowman＆Littlefield，2003），pp.277—298。
1702911004
1702911005
[536]值得注意的是，任何一个国家如果在经济上依赖于它担心可能会与之斗争的国家，都可以减少这种依赖，以便在发生战争时保护自己。James Mor-row，“How Could Trade Affect Conflict？”Journal of Peace Research 36，no.4（July 1999）：481—489.也可参见Albert O.Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade（Berkeley：University of California Press，1980），pp.v—xii。
1702911006
1702911007
[537]Peter Liberman, Does Conquest Pay？The Exploitation of Occupied In-dustrial Societies（Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press，1998）.
1702911008
1702911009
[538]Dale C.Copeland, The Origins of Major War（Ithaca, NY：Cornell U-niversity Press，2000），chaps.3—4.
1702911010
1702911011
[539]短语“少了一颗钉子”出自著名的《莱茵兰寓言》，通常被认为是本杰明·富兰克林（Benjamin Franklin）所作：
1702911012
1702911013
少了一颗钉子，丢了一块蹄铁；
1702911014
1702911015
1702911016
1702911017
1702911018
1702911019
1702911020
1702911021
少了一块蹄铁，丢了一匹战马；
1702911022
1702911023
1702911024
1702911025
1702911026
1702911027
1702911028
1702911029
少了一匹战马，丢了一个骑手；
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