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[579]Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder, eds.,Dominoes and Bandwagons:Stra-tegic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland(New York:Oxford University Press,1991);Jerome Slater,“Dominoes in Central America:Will They Fall?Does it Matter?”International Security 12,no.2(Fall 1987):105—134;Jerome Slater,“The Domino Theory and International Politics:The Case of Vietnam,”Security Studies 3,no.2(Winter 1993/94):186—224;Van Evera, Causes of War, chap.5.
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[580]Lindsey O’Rourke, Covert Regime Change:America’s Secret Cold War(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2018).
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[581]例如,考察一下美国在朝鲜战争(1950—1953年)和越南战争(1965—1972年)中对其对手造成的死亡和破坏。尽管在确切数字上没有达成一致,但有理由假定美国军队杀死了大约100万朝鲜平民和士兵,造成大约40万中国士兵伤亡,以及杀死了大约100万越南平民和士兵。正如康拉德·克兰(Con-rad Crane)所说,“大多数作者估计,在朝鲜战争期间,每一方都有超过100万平民死亡”。Conrad C.Crane, American Airpower Strategy in Korea,1950—1953(Lawrence:University Press of Kansas,2000),p.8.也可参见Guenter Lewy, America in Vietnam(New York:Oxford University Press,1978),p.450;John Tirman, The Deaths of Others:The Fate of Civilians in America’s Wars(New York:Oxford University Press,2011),p.92。由于数十万朝鲜士兵在战斗中丧生,据保守估计,有100万朝鲜士兵被美国军队杀害。关于美国对朝鲜发动战争的残忍行径,参见Crane, American Airpower Strategy in Korea;Rob-ert A.Pape, Bombing to Win:Air Power and Coercion in War(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,1996),chap.5。中国士兵战斗死亡人数出自Michael Clodfelter, Warfare and Other Conflicts:A Statistical Encyclopedia of Casualty and Other Figures,1494—2007,3rd ed.(Jefferson, NC:McFarland,2008);Tirman, The Deaths of Others, p.92。在越南,“最精明的当局的普遍观点”是,“除了25万南越士兵以及未知的南越和北越平民伤亡人数外,还有近100万共产主义战斗人员丧生”。Charles Hirschman, Samuel Preston, and Vu Manh Loi,“Vietnamese Casualties during the American War:A New Estimate,”Popu-lation and Development Review 21,no.4(December 1995):783—784.这项研究估计,1965年至1975年期间,越南所有地区与战争有关的死亡人数略多于100万人。显然,这些死亡并不是完全由美军造成的。研究还指出,越南政府估计战争死亡人数约为310万人(第807页)。冈特·莱维(Guenter Lewy)认为人数在130万,他估计其中28%(36.5万)是平民(Lewy, America in Vietnam, pp.451—453)。美军确实杀死了大量的平民,因为军队当时实施的是一种以火力为导向的军事战略,旨在对敌人实施大规模惩罚,这将使其达到崩溃的地步。John E.Mueller,“The Search for the‘Breaking Point’in Vietnam:The Statistics of a Deadly Quarrel,”International Studies Quarterly 24,no.4(Decem-ber 1980):497—519.莱维指出,五角大楼估计,仅北越和越共军人死亡数量就达到66万。(Lewy, America in Vietnam, p.450).也可参见Tirman, The Deaths of Others, pp.320—322,这项研究提供了各种各样的估计,表明有充分的理由认为美军杀死了至少100万越南人。关于冷战后美国在大中东地区的“不间断”战争,前中央情报局分析家和中东问题专家格雷厄姆·富勒主张,“过去几十年美国对伊斯兰世界的军事干预”导致“至少200万穆斯林被杀害”。Fuller,“Trump—Blundering into European Truths,”Graham E.Fuller(blog),June 5,2017,http://grahamefuller.com/trump-blundering-into-european-truths/。当然,美军并没有直接造成所有这些死亡,尽管它确实杀死了许多受害者,并且在发起和推动这些战争中发挥了关键作用。
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[582]Fredrik Logevall, Choosing War:The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of Warin Vietnam(Berkeley:University of California Press,1999).
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[583]关于分而治之,逐个击破战略,参见John J.Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, updated.ed.(New York:Norton,2014),pp.153—154。
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[584]Stephen M.Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions:America’s Foreign Poli-cy Elite and The Decline of U.S.Primacy(New York:Farrar, Straus and Gir-oux,2018).
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[585]“Remarks by Secretary Mattis on the National Defense Strategy,”Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Washington, DC, January 19,2018.对于国防部的文件,参见https://www.defense.gov/News/Tran-scripts/Transcript-View/Article/1420042/remarks-by-secretary-mattis-on-the-na-tional-defense-strategy/。也可参见“National Security Strategy of the United States of America,”White House, Washington, DC, December 2017;“Summa-ry of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America,”De-partment of Defense, Washington, DC, January 2018。
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[586]Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, chap.10.
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[587]Michael Beckley,“China’s Century?Why America’s Edge Will En-dure,”International Security 36,no.3(Winter 2011/12):41—78.
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[588]据联合国统计,2010年美国人口约为3.1亿,2050年将达到3.89亿。同年,德国将从8 000万降到7 500万,日本将从1.27亿降到1.07亿,俄罗斯将从1.43亿降到1.29亿。United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Population Prospects:The 2015 Revision, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/DataQuery/.
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[589]Jeffrey Goldberg,“The Obama Doctrine:The U.S.President Talks Through His Hardest Decisions about America’s Role in the World,”Atlantic Monthly, April 2016.
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[590]以下关于自由主义霸权如何被挫败的讨论,我从与伊丽莎·格奥尔基(Eliza Gheorghe)、肖恩·林恩琼斯(Sean Lynn-Jones)和斯蒂芬·沃尔特的对话中受益匪浅。
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[591]参见Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions, chap.6。
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[592]关于这一观点的详细讨论,参见Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions, chap.7。
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[593]一些为克制辩护的主要著作包括,Andrew J.Bacevich, The Limits of Power:The End of American Exceptionalism(New York:Holt Paperbacks,2009);Richard K.Betts, American Force:Dangers, Delusions, and Dilemmas in National Security(New York:Columbia University Press,2013);David C.Hendrickson, Republic in Peril:American Empire and the Liberal Tradition(New York:Oxford University Press,2018);Chalmers Johnson, Dismantling the Em-pire:America’s Last Best Hope(New York:Metropolitan Books,2010);Chris-topher Layne, The Peace of Illusions:American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2007);Anatol Lieven and John Hulsman, Ethical Realism:A Vision for America’s Role in the World(New York:Pantheon,2006);Michael Lind, The American Way of Strategy:U.S.Foreign Policy and the American Way of Life(New York:Oxford University Press,2006);Walter A.McDougall, Promised Land, Crusader State:The American Encounter with the World since 1776(New York:Houghton Mifflin,1997);Da-vid Mayers, Dissenting Voices in America’s Rise to Power(New York:Cam-bridge University Press,2007);John J.Mearsheimer and Stephen M.Walt,“The Case for Offshore Balancing,”Foreign Affairs 95,no.4(July/August 2016):70—83;Rajan Menon, The Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention(New York:Oxford University Press,2016);Joseph M.Parent and Paul K.MacDon-ald,“The Wisdom of Retrenchment:America Must Cut Back to Move For-ward,”Foreign Affairs 90,no.6(November/December 2011):32—47;Barry R.Posen, Restraint:A New Foundation for U.S.Grand Strategy(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2015);Christopher A.Preble, The Power Problem:How American Military Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free(Ithaca, NY:Cornell University Press,2009);Rosato and Schuessler,“A Realist Foreign Policy for the United States,”pp.803—819;A.Trevor Thrall and Benjamin H.Friedman, eds.,US Grand Strategy in the 21st Century:The Case for Restraint(New York:Routledge,2018);Stephen M.Walt, Taming A-merican Power:The Global Response to U.S.Primacy(New York:Norton,2005)。值得注意的是,现实主义者并不是唯一的克制倡导者,也有从非现实主义的视角看待外交政策的克制倡导者。事实上,甚至还有一些赞成克制的自由国际主义者。例如,参见Tony Smith, Why Wilson Matters:The Origin of American Liberal Internationalism and Its Crisis Today(Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press,2017)。
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[594]Stephen Kinzer, The True Flag:Theodore Roosevelt, Mark Twain, and the Birth of American Empire(New York:Henry Holt,2017).
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[595]Robin Lindley,“The Origins of American Imperialism:An Interview with StephenKinzer,”History News Network, October 1,2017.
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[596]除了奥巴马和特朗普,乔治·布什在2000年竞选时承诺,他将奉行更“谦逊”的外交政策,并且不会进行国家建构。Condoleezza Rice,“Promoting the National Interest,”Foreign Affairs 79,no.1(January/February 2000):45—62.他在“9·11”事件后迅速放弃了现实主义政策,并热情地拥抱自由主义霸权。
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[597]Neta C.Crawford,“United States Budgetary Costs of Post 9/11 Wars through FY 2018:A Summary of the$5.6 Trillion in Costs for the US Wars in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan,”Costs of War Project, Watson Institute, Brown Uni-versity, November 2017.
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