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不稳定并不局限于克里米亚。俄罗斯的装备和士兵（不穿正式军服，以掩盖其国籍）也进入了乌克兰东部。乌克兰与俄罗斯接壤，有相当数量（但还不是多数）的俄罗斯族人。事实上，早在2014年3月，普京出台了一个安全原则，实质上宣告俄罗斯有权代表俄罗斯族人在任何受到威胁的地方进行干预。乌克兰政府军和由俄罗斯支持的地方民兵之间一直在乌克兰东部进行小规模战斗，直到2015年年初，俄罗斯、乌克兰、法国和德国签署了停火和政治协议，即《明斯克协议》，但这一协议根本没有得到充分执行，双方都指责另一方不遵守协议中的一个或多个条款规定。[15]
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其实这一切与乌克兰重要性之外的很多原因有关。乌克兰只是一个约有4500万人口的小国，但在这里所发生的一系列事情明显地影响了世人对俄罗斯以及与俄罗斯关系的认知。俄罗斯向欧洲重新引入了军事维度——许多观察家认为，这一维度已经随着冷战结束而消失了。这一做法破坏了军事力量不应用于改变边界的准则的全球共识，俄罗斯为其行为付出了并不高昂的政治和经济代价，却因为改变国际规则而得到不少民众的支持。
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俄罗斯的魄力不仅仅表现在其周边地区。从2015年开始，俄罗斯在叙利亚进行军事干预，其企图可能是表明其采取果断行动的意愿和能力，或者保持叙利亚军事设施的正常运转，又或者出于其他目的。无论出于什么动机，人们希望俄罗斯的干预是有限的，且目标明确、行动短暂，但是事实证明，这样的希望落空了。俄罗斯大量使用空中力量，但不是针对恐怖分子，而是针对许多由美国或其合作伙伴支持的反对巴沙尔政府的团体。俄罗斯的意图似乎也不是为了防止巴沙尔政权崩溃，只是在没有规划并实施政治过渡方案前，先保持巴沙尔政权在位，它并没有安抚或从政治上转变叙利亚的企图或动机。
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美俄关系（以及欧洲大多数国家与俄罗斯的关系）经过20多年的演变日益紧张。[16]富有意味的是，2016年2月，俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫在慕尼黑的一次会议上说，世界正在滑向一场新冷战。[17]令局势更加紧张的是，和许多人所希望的相违背，俄罗斯实际上根本不是一个以民主和市场为导向的合作伙伴。相反，它是一个不自由的专制的政治实体。普京享有巨大的权力，毫不夸张地说，他所受到的来自体制和同僚的制约远远低于此前的苏联领导人。普京已经在俄罗斯实行“无制度约束”，并引入了一定程度的人治，这很令人担忧。
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俄罗斯的经济在很大程度上依赖于石油和天然气，因此其经济发展与能源价格息息相关。2015年石油价格崩盘，俄罗斯经济也随之下滑。问题是：普京是会采取必要的措施来改善俄罗斯与外部世界的关系（以减轻制裁），甚至引入一些改革，还是会转向更加抵制对抗的外交政策，充分挖掘民族主义的价值，以转移对国内多重问题的压力？本书的第三部分将讨论应对普京领导下的俄罗斯的各种方案。
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其他大国关系以合作为主，例如美国和欧洲、日本和印度，而中国和日本或俄罗斯和欧洲（在“区域现实”这一章侧重讨论区域发展）之间，虽然有很多摩擦，但仍属于有序范畴。关键点在于，按照历史标准看，大国之间的关系相对良好，或者至少不太坏。这虽然突破了大国内外冲突的历史模式，却没有带来一个有序的世界。大国之间没有冲突与大国相互合作，这两者存在根本的差别。或者，回到本书的主题，权力均衡（被核威慑和非核威慑加强）和经济相互依赖等防护机制避免了直接冲突，但是仍然缺乏对合法性比较一致的定义，以及如何将其运用于更好地应对全球或区域挑战。这意味着，对于为什么这个世界越来越混乱的解释已经超出大国直接竞争动力学的范畴，答案在别处。本书下一章将梳理出当今混乱的根源。
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[1]See Graham Allison,“The Thucydides Trap
:Are America and China Headed for War?”The Atlantic,September24,2015,http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-stateschina-war-thucydides-trap/406756/;and Richard N.Rosecrance and Steven E.Miller,eds.,The Next Great War?
:The Roots of World War I and the Risk of U.S.-China Conflict(Cambridge,MA
:The MIT Press,2014).For a relatively sanguine perspective,see Stephen G.Brooks and William C.Wohlforth,“The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century
:China’s Rise and the Fate of America’s Global Position,”International Security40,no.3(Winter2015/16)
:7-53.More pessimistic are John J.Mearsheimer,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics(New York
:W.W.Norton&Company,2001);and especially Michael Pillsbury,The HundredYear Marathon
:China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower(New York
:Henry Holt and Company,2015).
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[2]Wayne M.Morrison,China-U.S.Trade Issues,Congressional Research Service Report No.RL33536(Washington,DC
:Congressional Research Service,2015),3,https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33536.pdf.
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[3]See Bush and Scowcroft,A World Transformed,chap.4,and Baker,The Politics of Diplomacy,chap.7.
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[4]“Joint Statement Following Discussions With Leaders of the People’s Republic of China,”February27,1972,U.S.Department of State,Office of the Historian,https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d203.
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[5]“Joint Communiquéon the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America,”December16,1978,Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S.,http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zmgx/doc/ctc/t36256.htm;“Joint Communiquéof the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America,”August17,1982,Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the U.S.,http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/zmgx/doc/ctc/t946664.htm.
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[6]Taiwan Relations Act,Pub.L.No.96-8,https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-93/pdf/STATUTE-93-Pg14.pdf.
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[7]See,for example,Robert D.Blackwill and Kurt M.Campbell,Xi Jinping on the Global Stage
:Chinese Foreign Policy Under a Powerful but Exposed Leader,Council on Foreign Relations Special Report No.74(New York
:Council on Foreign Relations Press,2016).
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[8]Fu Ying and Wu Shicun,“South China Sea
:How We Got to This Stage,”The National Interest,May9,2016,http://nationalinterest.org/feature/south-china-sea-how-we-got-stage-16118.
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[9]Basic information about the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank can be found at its website,AIIB.org.
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[10]See Xi Jinping,The Governance of China(Beijing
:Foreign Languages Press Co.,2014),306-308;and Fu Ying,“The US World Order Is a Suit That No Longer Fits,”Financial Times,January6,2016,http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c09cbcb6-b3cb11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51.html.
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[11]See Josef Joffe,“Is There Life After Victory?What NATO Can and Cannot Do,”The National Interest,Fall1995,http://nationalinterest.org/article/is-there-life-after-victory-what-natocan-and-cannot-do-827.
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[12]Mary Elise Sarotte,1989
:The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe(Princeton,NJ
:Princeton University Press,2009);and Mary Elise Sarotte,“A Broken Promise?”Foreign Affairs93,no.5(September/October2014),https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.For an official account,see Baker,The Politics of Diplomacy,especially chap.14.
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[13]NATO enlargement triggered an intense,sustained debate in the foreign policy community.For background to the decision and the debate,see James Goldgeier,Not Whether But When
:The U.S.Decision to Enlarge NATO(Washington,DC
:Brookings Institution Press,1999).Also see G.John Ikenberry,After Victory
:Institutions,Strategic Restraint,and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars(Princeton,NJ
:Princeton University Press,2001),especially235-239;Ronald D.Asmus,Opening NATO’s Door
:How the Alliance Remade Itself for a New Era(New York
:Columbia University Press,2002);and Eugene Rumer,“NATO Expansion
:Strategic Genius or Historic Mistake?”The National Interest,August21,2014,http://nationalinterest.org/feature/natoexpansion-strategic-genius-or-historic-mistake-11114.
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[14]See Charles King,“The Five Day War
:Managing Moscow After the Georgia Crisis,”Foreign Affairs87,no.6(November/December2008)https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russiafsu/2008-11-01/five-day-war.
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[15]“Package of measures for the Implementation of the Minsk agreements,”February12,2015,UN,http://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/UA150212MinskAgreement___en.pdf.
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[16]For a good overview of Russian foreign policy and the deterioration in US-Russian relations,see Jeffrey Mankoff,Russian Foreign Policy
:The Return of Great Power Politics,2nd ed.(Lanham,MD
:Rowman&Littlefield Publishers,2012).For a minority view that places the onus for deterioration on the United States,see Stephen F.Cohen,Failed Crusade
:America and the Tragedy of Post-Communist Russia(New York
:W.W.Norton&Company,2000).
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[17]Dmitry Medvedev,“Speech at the Panel Discussion,”(speech,Munich Security Conference,Munich,February13,2016),Russian Government,http://government.ru/en/news/21784/.
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