1703248528

1703248529 在第六章，我们重温了霸权的概念。据本书的实证研究结果，我们认为，霸权已经不再适用于国际事务，因为构成霸权的主要职能已经被广泛共享，并通过谈判得以行使，而非基于霸权国的许可。鉴于这一系列现象，需要对影响力进行新的概念化。这显示出一个新的研究议程。对于生活于现今世界的我们而言，这是多国共存的世界，而非单极世界——在这样的一个世界里，行为体以不同的方式，将社会权力与物质权力结合起来，以期获得影响力。

1703248530

1703248531 [1]Michael W. Doyle, Empires (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1986), 40.

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1703248533 [2]Michael Mastanduno, “Hegemonic Order, September 11, and the Consequences of the Bush Revolution,” International Relations of the Asia Pacific 5 (2005): 177—196.

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1703248535 [3]Stuart J.Kaufman, Richard Little, and William C.Wohlforth, The Balance of Power in World History (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), 7.

1703248536

1703248537 [4]G.John Ikenberry and Charles A.Kupchan, “Socialization and Hegemonic Power,” International Organization 44, no.3 (1990): 283—315.

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1703248539 [5]参见Charles P.Kindleberger, “Dominance and Leadership in the International Economy: Exploitation, Public Goods, and Free Rides,” International Studies Quarterly 25, no.2 (1981): 242—254, especially 248, and Charles P.Kindleberger, Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (New York: Basic Books, 1978), 202。

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1703248541 [6]Michael Dobbs and John M.Goshko, “Albright’s Personal Odyssey Shaped Foreign Policy Beliefs,” Washington Post, 6 December 1996.

1703248542

1703248543 [7]奥巴马在第三场有关外交政策的总统候选人辩论中宣称，“美国仍然是一个不可或缺的国家。世界需要一个强大的美国。”Transcript and Audio: “Third Presidential Debate,” 22 October 2012, http://www.npr.org/2012/10/22/163436694/transcript-3rd-obama-romney-presidential-debate (accessed 3 June 2013).

1703248544

1703248545 [8]George Friedman, The Coming War with Japan (New York: St.Martins, 1991).

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1703248547 [9]参见James Traub, “Wallowing in Decline,” Foreign Policy, 24 September 2010, http: //www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/09/24/wallowing_in_decline?page=0,1 (accessed 27 December 2010); Stephen M.Walt, “The Virtues of Competence,”Foreign Policy, 22 September 2010, http: //walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/22/the_virtues_of_competence (accessed 27 December 2010); Aaron L.Freidberg, “The Future of US-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?”International Security 30, no.2 (2005): 7—45; Michael Mandelbaum, The Frugal Superpower: America’s Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era (Philadelphia: Public Affairs, 2010), especially 3—5。批评者的观点，参见Stephen G.Brooks and William C.Wohlforth, World out of Balance: International Relations and the Challenge of US Primacy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008); William C.Wohlforth, “The Stability of a Unipolar World,” International Security 24, no.1 (1999): 5—41; William C.Wohlforth, “US Strategy in a Unipolar World,” in G.John Ikenberry, ed., America Unrivaled: The Future of the Balance of Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002): 98—120。现实主义者观点的总结，参见Christopher Layne, “The Waning of US Hegemony—Myth or Reality?” International Security 34, no.1 (2009): 147—172。

1703248548

1703248549 [10]Charles Glaser, “Will China’s Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2011, http: //www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67479/charles-glaser/will-chinas-rise-lead-to-war (accessed 3 June 2011); Steven W.Mosher, Hegemon: China’s Plan to Dominate Asia and the World (San Francisco: Encounter, 2000); Stefan Halper, The Beijing Consensus: How China’s Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century (New York: Basic Books, 2010).

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1703248551 [11]Robert O.Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the Modern World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984); G.John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011); Joseph S.Nye Jr., “The Future of American Power,” Foreign Affairs 89, no.6 (2010): 2—12; Bruce Russett and John Oneal, Triangulating Peace: Democracy, Interdependence and International Organizations (New York: Norton, 2001).

1703248552

1703248553 [12]详尽的阐述，参见Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein, We All Lost the Cold War (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994), chap.14。

1703248554

1703248555 [13]David Bohmer Lebow and Richard Ned Lebow, “Mexico and Iraq: Continuity and Change in the Bush Administration,” in David B.MacDonald, ed., The Bush Leadership, the Power of Ideas and the War on Terror (Farnham, Surrey, England: Ashgate, 2012), 91—112.

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1703248557 [14]相关的路径，参见Thomas Hobbes, Behemoth (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1990), 16; Steven Weber and Bruce W.Jentleson, The End of Arrogance: America in the Global Competition of Ideas (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2010)。

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1703248559 [15]参见Michael Barnett and Raymond Duvall, “Power in International Politics,” International Organization 59, no.1 (2005): 39—75; and Ian Manners, “Normative Power Europe: A Contradiction in Terms?” Journal of Common Market Studies 40, no.2 (2002): 235—258, especially 239。

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1703248561 [16]Barnett and Duvall, “Power in International Politics,” 56—57.

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1703248563 [17]在更正式的术语中，这些经济职能包括：维护亏本出售商品的开放市场，提供反周期的贷款，监督稳定的汇率系统，确保宏观经济政策的协调，担当最后贷款人。参见Charles P.Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929—1939 (Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 1973), 305。

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1703248565 [18]G.John Ikenberry, “Grand Strategy as Liberal Order Building,”会议论文，“After the Bush Doctrine: National Security Strategy for a New Administration,” University of Virginia, 7—8 June 2007, 3。

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1703248567 [19]Barack Obama, National Security Strategy (Washington, DC: White House, May 2010), http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf (accessed 21 January 2013).在这份指导性的战略文件中，中国被提及了十余次，其中特别探讨了美国对中国的军力提升作好应对准备，尽管其措辞是外交辞令式的（参见该文件的第43页）。

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1703248569 [20]Bryan Patridge, “Constructivism—Is the United States Making China an Enemy?” (Carlisle, PA: United States Army War College, 2012).

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1703248571 [21]Stephen G.Brooks, G.John Ikenberry, and William C.Wohlforth, “Don’t Come Home America: The Case against Retrenchment,” International Security 37, no.3 (2012—2013): 7—51.

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1703248573 [22]Jacob Viner, “Power vs. Plenty as Objectives of Foreign Policy in the 17th and 18th Centuries,” World Politics 1, no.1. (1948): 1—29.

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1703248575 [23]Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1984), Lebow and Stein, We All Lost the Cold War.

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1703248577 [24]Robert Kagan, “Power and Weakness,” Policy Review 113 (June—July 2002), http: //www.newamericancentury.org/kagan-20020520.htm (accessed 16 February 2011).

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