1703250335 [57]“NATO Operations in Libya;” Elisabeth Bumiller, “Libyan War Goes a Long Way to Improve the Pentagon’s View of France as an Ally,” New York Times, 26 August 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/27/world/africa/27military.html?_r=2 (accessed 17 January 2012).

1703250336

1703250337 [58]Kevin Baron, “For the US, War against Qaddafi Cost Relatively Little: $1.1 Billion,” Atlantic, 21 October 2011, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/for-the-us-war-against-qaddafi-cost-relatively-little-11-billion/247133 (accessed 17 January 2012); Thomas Penny, “Libya Operation Cost U.K. $333 Million, Defense Ministry Says,”Bloomberg Businessweek, 8 December 2011, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-08/libya-operation-cost-u-k-333-million-defense-ministry-says.html (accessed 17 January 2012); “La guerre en Libye a coûté 300 millions d’euros à la France,” Le Parisien, 23 October 2012, http://www.leparisien.fr/intervention-libye/la-guerre-en-libye-a-coute-300-millions-d-euros-a-la-france-23-10-2011-1681579.php (accessed 17 January 2012); Mark Dunn, “Libya Mission Cost Canadians $50 million,” Toronto Sun, 29 October 2011, http://www.torontosun.com/2011/10/29/libya-mission-cost-canadians-50-million (accessed 17 January 2012).

1703250338

1703250339 [59]Scott Peterson, “US Recognition of Libya Rebels Could Bring More Funds,” Christian Science Monitor, 15 July 2011, http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0715/US-recognition-of-Libya-rebels-could-bring-more-funds (accessed 12 Janu-ary 2012).

1703250340

1703250341 [60]Zakaria, “How the Lessons of Iraq Paid Off in Libya”; Shadi Hamid, “After Libya,” 14 September 2011, http://www.brookings.edu/interviews/2011/0914_libya_hamid.aspx (accessed 28 December 2011).

1703250342

1703250343 [61]David Zucchino, “Libyan Rebels Embrace US and Its Flag,” Los Angeles Times, 5 August 2011, http://feb17.info/news/libyan-rebels-embrace-u-s-and-its-flag (accessed 28 December 2011).

1703250344

1703250345 [62]Wyre Davies, “Libya: Islamist Militia Bases Stormed in Benghazi,” 22 September 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19680785 (accessed 5 April 2013).

1703250346

1703250347 [63]German Marshall Fund, Transatlantic Trends 2011, http://www.gmfus.org/publications_/TT/TT2011_final_web.pdf. (accessed 27 May 2013).

1703250348

1703250349 [64]European Council on Foreign Relations, “European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2012,” http://www.ecfr.eu/scorecard/2012/usa (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250350

1703250351 [65]James Joyner, “The Future of EU-US Security and Defense Cooperation: What Lies Ahead?” http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/q-the-future-of-eu-us-security-and-defence-cooperation-what-lies-ahead-4 (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250352

1703250353 [66]Nicholas Sarkozy, “Discours du Président de la République à l’occasion de la céré-monie franco-américaine, à Cannes,” 4 November 2011, http://www.elysee.fr/president/les-actualites/discours/2011/discours-du-president-de-la-republique-a.12382.html (accessed 4 November 2011).

1703250354

1703250355 [67]David Cameron, “Press Conference by David Cameron and Barack Obama,” 15 March 2012, http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/press-conference-by-david-cameron-and-barack-obama (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250356

1703250357 [68]Barack Obama, “Remarks by Obama, Italian Prime Minister Monti after Meeting,” http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/texttrans/2012/02/20120209190044su0.5858119.html#axzz1qdAZSRxl (accessed 12 February 2013); Ruth Santini, “The Libyan Crisis Seen from European Capitals,” http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2011/0601_libya_santini.aspx (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250358

1703250359 [69]Shelby Telhami, “The 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll,” http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2011/1121_arab_public_opinion_telhami.aspx, 3 (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250360

1703250361 [70]Ibid.

1703250362

1703250363 [71]James Zogby, “Arab Attitudes, 2011,” http://www.aaiusa.org/reports/arab-attitudes-2011, 2, 8 (accessed 12 February 2013).

1703250364

1703250365 [72]Neal J.Roese and James M.Olson, “Counterfactual Thinking: A Critical Overview,” in Roese and Olson, eds., What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking (Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, 1995), 1—56.

1703250366

1703250367 [73]有关在历史和国际关系领域进行反事实实验的报告，参见Richard Ned Lebow, Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008), chap.2。

1703250368

1703250369 [74]Max Weber, “Objective Possibility and Adequate Causation in Historical Explanation,” in The Methodology of the Social Sciences (Glencoe, IL: Free Press, 1949), 164—188.

1703250370

1703250371 [75]Mathea Falco, Winning the Drug War: A National Strategy (New York: Priority Press, 1989), 36.

1703250372

1703250373 [76]Gregory F.Treverton, “Narcotics in US-Mexican Relations,” in Riordan Roett, ed., Mexico and the United States: Managing the Relationship (Boulder, C.O.: Westview, 1988), 215.

1703250374

1703250375 [77]Richard Craig, “Operation Condor: Mexico’s Anti-Drug Campaign Enters a New Era,” Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 22, no.3 (August 1980):345—363; Maria Celia Toro, “The Internationalization of Police: The DEA in Mexico,” Journal of American History 86, no.2 (1999):623—640; Kate Doyle, “The Militarization of the Drug War in Mexico,” Current History 92, no.571 (1993):83—88.

1703250376

1703250377 [78]Peter Reuter and David Ronfeldt, Quest for Integrity: The Mexican-US Drug Issue in the 1980s (Santa Monica, CA.: RAND, 1992).

1703250378

1703250379 [79]“Narcotics, Marihuana and Dangerous Drugs Task Force,” Report of the Presidential Task Force Relating to Narcotics, Marihuana and Dangerous Drugs, 6 June 1969 (mimeographed), cited in Richard B.Craig, “Operation Intercept: The International Politics of Pressure,” The Review of Politics 42, 4 (1980); 556.

1703250380

1703250381 [80]引自Craig, “Operation Intercept,” 560。

1703250382

1703250383 [81]“FAA Proposes Restraints on Drug Traffic,” Aviation Week and Space Technology, 18 August 1969, 112; Craig, “Operation Intercept”; Peter Andreas, Border Games (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2009), 41.

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