1703430860
1703430861
[13]Peter Temin,Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? （New York
:Norton,1976）.
1703430862
1703430863
[14]Reuven Glick and Kevin J.Lansing,“Global Household Leverage,House Prices,and Consumption,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter,January 11,2010.
1703430864
1703430865
[15]International Monetary Fund,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt,” in World Economic Outlook
:Growth Resuming,Dangers Remain,April 2012.
1703430866
1703430867
[16]Mervyn King,“Debt Deflation
:Theory and Evidence,” European Economic Review 38 （1994）
:419-45.
1703430868
1703430869
[17]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,“Is the 2007 US SubPrime Financial Crisis So Different?
:An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98 （2008）
:339-44.
1703430870
1703430871
[18]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,This Time Is Different （Princeton,NJ
:Princeton University Press,2009）.
1703430872
1703430873
[19]Oscar Jorda,Moritz Schularick,and Alan M.Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back
:Leverage,Business Cycles,and Crisis” （working paper no.17621,NBER,2011）.
1703430874
1703430875
[20]IMF的研究也确认了这一点，他们认为，即使没有银行业危机，家庭债务的上升也会使衰退更加严重，参见IMF,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt”。
1703430876
1703430877
[21]Jorda,Schularick,and Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back,” 5.
1703430878
1703430879
[22]George W.Bush,“Speech to the Nation on the Economic Crisis,” September 24,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24textbush.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
1703430880
1703430881
第2章
1703430882
1703430883
[1]本部分的所有数据来自美联储的消费者金融调查。
1703430884
1703430885
[2]杠杆乘数的数学定义为1/（1-LTV），其中LTV是家庭的贷款与房屋价值的比率。在这个例子中，LTV为80%，这就使得1/（1-0.80） = 5。LTV越高，那么杠杆乘数就越大。
1703430886
1703430887
[3]要了解我们研究所用数据的全面概括，可以参看以下研究：Atif Mian and Amir Sufi,“The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion
:Evidence from the U.S.Mortgage Default Crisis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 （2009）
:1449-96; Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58 （2010）
:74-117; and Atif Mian,Kamelesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming。
1703430888
1703430889
[4]CoreLogic Press Release,“CoreLogic Third Quarter 2011 Negative Equity Data Shows Slight Decline but Remains Elevated,” November 29,2011,http://www.corelogic.com/aboutus/news/corelogicthirdquarter2011negativeequitydatashowsslightdeclinebutremainselevated.aspx.
1703430890
1703430891
[5]Daniel Hartley,“Distressed Sales and Housing Prices,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends,February 24,2012.
1703430892
1703430893
[6]Atif Mian,Amir Sufi,and Francesco Trebbi,“Foreclosures,House Prices,and the Real Economy” （working paper no.16685,NBER,May 2012）.
1703430894
1703430895
[7]另一项研究使用了不同方法却得到了相似的结果：Elliot Anenberg and Edward Kung,“Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures” （working paper 2013-09,UCLA,January 11,2013）。他们发现了相似的渠道：止赎迫使他们以低于先前市价的价格出售房屋，进而压低了临近地区的房价。
1703430896
1703430897
[8]Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny,“Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity
:A Market Equilibrium Approach,” Journal of Finance 47 （1992）
:1343-66.
1703430898
1703430899
[9]John Geanakoplos,“The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009,vol.24,ed.Daron Acemoglu,Kenneth Rogoff ,and Michael Woodford （Chicago
:University of Chicago Press,2010）,1-65.
1703430900
1703430901
[10]参见国家火灾保护协会数据，http://www.nfpa.org/research/firestatistics/theusfireproblem/homefires。
1703430902
1703430903
第3章
1703430904
1703430905
[1]这里引用自Alan Blinder，他在谈到挽救雷曼兄弟的失败时写道：“这是一个巨大的错误，并且很多人都这么认为。”参见 Alan Blinder,“Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis,” New York Times,January 25,2009。
1703430906
1703430907
[2]Jacob Weisberg,“What Caused the Great Recession?,” Daily Beast,January 8,2010,http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/08/whatcausedthegreatrecession.html.
1703430908
1703430909
[3]本部分的事实基于两项研究报告：Atif Mian,Kamalesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming；Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58（2010）
:74-117。
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