1703430860
1703430861
[13]Peter Temin,Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (New York
:Norton,1976).
1703430862
1703430863
[14]Reuven Glick and Kevin J.Lansing,“Global Household Leverage,House Prices,and Consumption,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter,January 11,2010.
1703430864
1703430865
[15]International Monetary Fund,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt,” in World Economic Outlook
:Growth Resuming,Dangers Remain,April 2012.
1703430866
1703430867
[16]Mervyn King,“Debt Deflation
:Theory and Evidence,” European Economic Review 38 (1994)
:419-45.
1703430868
1703430869
[17]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,“Is the 2007 US SubPrime Financial Crisis So Different?
:An International Historical Comparison,” American Economic Review 98 (2008)
:339-44.
1703430870
1703430871
[18]Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff ,This Time Is Different (Princeton,NJ
:Princeton University Press,2009).
1703430872
1703430873
[19]Oscar Jorda,Moritz Schularick,and Alan M.Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back
:Leverage,Business Cycles,and Crisis” (working paper no.17621,NBER,2011).
1703430874
1703430875
[20]IMF的研究也确认了这一点,他们认为,即使没有银行业危机,家庭债务的上升也会使衰退更加严重,参见IMF,“Chapter 3
:Dealing with Household Debt”。
1703430876
1703430877
[21]Jorda,Schularick,and Taylor,“When Credit Bites Back,” 5.
1703430878
1703430879
[22]George W.Bush,“Speech to the Nation on the Economic Crisis,” September 24,2008,http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/economy/24textbush.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0.
1703430880
1703430881
第2章
1703430882
1703430883
[1]本部分的所有数据来自美联储的消费者金融调查。
1703430884
1703430885
[2]杠杆乘数的数学定义为1/(1-LTV),其中LTV是家庭的贷款与房屋价值的比率。在这个例子中,LTV为80%,这就使得1/(1-0.80) = 5。LTV越高,那么杠杆乘数就越大。
1703430886
1703430887
[3]要了解我们研究所用数据的全面概括,可以参看以下研究:Atif Mian and Amir Sufi,“The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion
:Evidence from the U.S.Mortgage Default Crisis,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 124 (2009)
:1449-96; Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58 (2010)
:74-117; and Atif Mian,Kamelesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming。
1703430888
1703430889
[4]CoreLogic Press Release,“CoreLogic Third Quarter 2011 Negative Equity Data Shows Slight Decline but Remains Elevated,” November 29,2011,http://www.corelogic.com/aboutus/news/corelogicthirdquarter2011negativeequitydatashowsslightdeclinebutremainselevated.aspx.
1703430890
1703430891
[5]Daniel Hartley,“Distressed Sales and Housing Prices,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Trends,February 24,2012.
1703430892
1703430893
[6]Atif Mian,Amir Sufi,and Francesco Trebbi,“Foreclosures,House Prices,and the Real Economy” (working paper no.16685,NBER,May 2012).
1703430894
1703430895
[7]另一项研究使用了不同方法却得到了相似的结果:Elliot Anenberg and Edward Kung,“Estimates of the Size and Source of Price Declines Due to Nearby Foreclosures” (working paper 2013-09,UCLA,January 11,2013)。他们发现了相似的渠道:止赎迫使他们以低于先前市价的价格出售房屋,进而压低了临近地区的房价。
1703430896
1703430897
[8]Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny,“Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity
:A Market Equilibrium Approach,” Journal of Finance 47 (1992)
:1343-66.
1703430898
1703430899
[9]John Geanakoplos,“The Leverage Cycle,” in NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2009,vol.24,ed.Daron Acemoglu,Kenneth Rogoff ,and Michael Woodford (Chicago
:University of Chicago Press,2010),1-65.
1703430900
1703430901
[10]参见国家火灾保护协会数据,http://www.nfpa.org/research/firestatistics/theusfireproblem/homefires。
1703430902
1703430903
第3章
1703430904
1703430905
[1]这里引用自Alan Blinder,他在谈到挽救雷曼兄弟的失败时写道:“这是一个巨大的错误,并且很多人都这么认为。”参见 Alan Blinder,“Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis,” New York Times,January 25,2009。
1703430906
1703430907
[2]Jacob Weisberg,“What Caused the Great Recession?,” Daily Beast,January 8,2010,http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2010/01/08/whatcausedthegreatrecession.html.
1703430908
1703430909
[3]本部分的事实基于两项研究报告:Atif Mian,Kamalesh Rao,and Amir Sufi ,“Household Balance Sheets,Consumption,and the Economic Slump,” Quarterly Journal of Economics,forthcoming;Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007-2009,” IMF Economic Review 58(2010)
:74-117。
[
上一页 ]
[ :1.70343086e+09 ]
[
下一页 ]