1703430910
1703430911
[4]James Surowiecki,“The Deleveraging Myth,” New Yorker,November 14,2011。他在专栏中还写道:“为了大幅刺激消费,以房屋净值做抵押进行借款的消费刺激是不可持续的,我们也不要指望经济回到那种状态。”我们完全同意这种观点。——参见第6章到第8章。
1703430912
1703430913
[5]布鲁金斯学会的Karen Dynan使用了完全不同的方法和数据库并发现了债务对家庭支出的强有力影响。她的分析发现:“在2007~2009年间,高杠杆购房者支出下降的幅度比其他购房者要大,尽管净值的变化要小一些。这就表明杠杆对消费的影响要高于单纯的财富效应对消费的影响。”Karen Dynan,“Is a Household Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2012)
:299-344。
1703430914
1703430915
第4章
1703430916
1703430917
[1]对Hal Varian的采访来源有两部分:Holly Finn,“Lunch with Hal,” Google Think Quarterly,March 2011,http://www.thinkwithgoogle.co.uk/quarterly/data/halvariantreatingdataobesity.html; and McKinsey & Company,“Hal Varian on How the Web Challenges Managers,” McKinsey Quarterly,January 2009,http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/innovation/hal_varian_on_how_the_web_challenges_managers。
1703430918
1703430919
[2]宏观经济学家将基于基本面的理论称为实际商业周期理论,因为经济波动主要受“实际”冲击的影响,也就是说对经济生产能力的冲击。经典的引用来自Edward C.Prescott,“Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 10,no.4 (1986)
:9-21。
1703430920
1703430921
[3]Robert Barro在其教科书的第2章使用了这个例子, Macroeconomics,5th ed.(Cambridge,MA
:MIT Press,1997)。
1703430922
1703430923
[4]除我们自己的研究外,还有另外四项研究对我们在此问题上的思考有启发:Gauti Eggertsson and Paul Krugman,“Debt,Deleveraging,an the Liquidity Trap,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 127,no.3 (2012)
:1469-513; Veronica Guerrieri and Guido Lorenzoni,“Credit Crises,Precautionary Savings,and the Liquidity Trap” (working paper,University of Chicago Booth School of Business,July 2011); Robert E.Hall,“The Long Slump,” American Economic Review 101 (2011)
:431-69; and Virgiliu Midrigan and Thomas Philippon,“Household Leverage and the Recession” (working paper,NYU Stern School of Business,April 2011)。
1703430924
1703430925
[5]在财富冲击后,与支出减少密切相关的一个原因是预防性储蓄。如 Christopher Carroll and Miles Kimball,“On the Concavity of the Consumption Function,” Econometrica 64 (1996)
:981-92。Christopher Carroll对财富分配在大衰退期间如何影响支出减少进行了大量的研究。Richard Koo也做了与此相关的研究,他谈到日本的情况时提出了“资产负债表衰退”,其中负债企业为去杠杆化大幅削减投资。参见Richard Koo,The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics
:Lessons from Japan’s Great Recession (Singapore
:John Wiley & Sons \[Asia\],2009)。
1703430926
1703430927
[6]Paul Krugman,“It’s Baaack
:Japan’s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1998)
:137-205.
1703430928
1703430929
[7]从理论上讲,如果政府或者美联储对现金征税,那么其收益有可能为负。例如,美联储就可以对银行持有的准备金收税。在实践中,我们几乎从未看到这种行为,这就意味着名义利率的零下限约束还是存在的。
1703430930
1703430931
[8]Robert Hall对利率零下限约束的机制做了精彩的解释,他说道:“政府发行带有收益(高于负实际利率)的货币,做了私人组织不会做的基本无经济意义的事情——过度补贴了放贷者。”换句话说,现金变成了一种无效率的高收益资产,导致人们会过多地持有它。参看 Robert E.Hall,“The Long Slump,” American Economic Review 101 (2011)
:431-69。
1703430932
1703430933
[9]Irving Fisher,“The DebtDeflation Theory of Great Depressions,” Econometrica 1 no.4 (1933)
:337-57.
1703430934
1703430935
[10]例如,Zhen Huo和JoseVictor RiosRull建立一个经济模型,其中由于很难将资源转移到出口商品的生产上,导致财富受损,衰退随之而生。Zhen Huo and JoseVictor RiosRull,“Engineering a Paradox of Thrift Recession” (working paper,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,December 2012)。
1703430936
1703430937
[11]我们在下面的文章中建立了这个正式的模型: Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel” (working paper,University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2012)。
1703430938
1703430939
第5章
1703430940
1703430941
[1]Bob Corker参议员:“柯克:奥巴马政府提出的资不抵债住房抵押贷款本金减记计划是一项‘糟糕的公共政策’,迫使田纳西州为其他州不负责任的购房行为埋单。”2012年1月30日新闻稿地址:http://www.corker.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2012/1/corkerobamaadministrationsprincipalwritedownproposalforunderwaterhomemortgagesisterriblepublicpolicyforcestennesseanstopayforrecklesshousingpracticesinotherstates。
1703430942
1703430943
[2]此方法是基于我们的研究:Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel” (working paper,University of Chicago Booth School of Business,2012)。
1703430944
1703430945
[3]这些假设最重要的一点与家庭偏好相关,其中我们假设家庭在可贸易和不可贸易商品之间的选择是柯布—道格拉斯偏好(CobbDouglas preferences),我们可以对这一假设进行简单的比例计算。计算出由于杠杆化损失冲击导致不可贸易部门工作岗位损失的部分使我们可以倒推整个经济体的部分工作岗位损失。参见Atif Mian and Amir Sufi ,“What Explains High Unemployment?
:The Aggregate Demand Channel”。
1703430946
1703430947
[4]John Maynard Keynes,The General Theory of Employment,Interest,and Money (1935; reprint,CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform,2011).
1703430948
1703430949
[5]Mary Daly,Bart Hobijn,and Brian Lucking,“Why Has Wage Growth Stayed Strong?” FRBSF Economic Letter,April 2,2012.
1703430950
1703430951
[6]Mary Anastasia O’Grady,“The Fed’s Easy Money Skeptic,”Wall Street Journal,February 12,2011.
1703430952
1703430953
[7]Kyle Herkenhoff and Lee Ohanian,“Foreclosure Delay and U.S.Unemployment”(working paper,Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis,June 2012).
1703430954
1703430955
[8]Jesse Rothstein,“Unemployment Insurance and Job Search in the Great Recession,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall 2011,143- 96.
1703430956
1703430957
[9]Johannes Schmieder,Till von Wachter,and Stefan Bender,“The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle
:Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates over 20 Years,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 127 (2012)
:701-52.
1703430958
1703430959
[10]Steven J.Davis and Till von Wachter,“Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss,”Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Fall 2011.
[
上一页 ]
[ :1.70343091e+09 ]
[
下一页 ]