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如果政府采取违背比较优势的战略,发展中国家具有比较优势的劳动密集型行业就会受到抑制。因此,一个转轨国家在从社会主义经济向市场经济转轨的过程中,其经济增长状况就决定于该国是否有能力为劳动密集型行业的发展创造一个合适的环境,同时为从以前的发展战略中继承下来的企业找到解决其自生能力问题的办法,为消除以前的各种扭曲和政府干预铺平道路。然而,在那些采取违背比较优势战略的许多国家中,存在着许多不具有自生能力的企业,它们在开放的竞争性市场中是无力生存的。如果政府扭曲和干预被突然取消,这些企业就会破产。同时,以前被抑制的劳动密集型产业会快速发展,这些产业中新创造的就业机会将超过不具有自生能力的企业破产所带来的就业损失。其结果是,在实施休克疗法后不久,经济就会充满活力地增长,其代价最多不过是开始时产出和就业的很小损失。
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另一方面,如果不具有自生能力的企业数量过大,这些企业的产出和就业在国民经济中占的比例就会太大,从而休克疗法将不适用。休克疗法将导致大规模的企业破产和失业的急剧增加,从而造成经济混乱。为了避免失业的急剧增加,或者为了维持这些不具有自生能力的“先进”企业,有些政府(比如一些东欧国家的政府)就继续对这些企业采取或明或暗的保护和补贴。这种办法的最终结果是,这些经济陷入了只有休克没有疗效的悲惨境地(Kolodko,2000)。[19]
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中国政府采取了双轨制,这被认为优于休克疗法(McKinnon,1993)。跟华盛顿共识倡导的“宏观制度优先”思路不同,中国政府采取了“微观优先”的办法,以提高农民和国有企业工人的积极性。在农村,政府采取了以家庭为单位的耕作体系,取代了集体耕作体系[20];在国有企业中,采取了利润留成和扩大企业经营自主权的措施[21]。这些措施使得农民和工人对经营剩余具有了部分获取权。这些改革大大提高了农业和工业的积极性和生产率(Groves et al.,1994;Jefferson,Rawski and Zheng,1992;Jefferson and Rawski,1995;Lin,1992;Li,1997;Weitzman and Xu,1995)。然后,中国政府允许集体的乡镇企业[22]、私有企业、合资企业以及国有企业用它们的资源投资于以前被抑制的劳动密集型行业。同时,要求农民和国有企业履行义务,按照预定价格把其一定数量的产品卖给政府。前一措施改善了资源配置的效率,后一措施确保了政府有能力继续补贴那些不具有自生能力的企业。就这样,中国政府同时实现了经济稳定和充满活力的经济增长。
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