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[1] 本文为作者于2001年5月14日在芝加哥大学所作的D.Gale Johnson讲座首讲的讲稿。作者感谢Gary Becker、陈抗、James Heckman\，Ralph Huenemann\，大冢启二郎、George Rosen\，Jan Svejnar\，钱颖一、Kislev Yoav\，周浩以及其他讲座参与者的有益评论。刘明兴、章奇和刘培林在查阅文献、整理数据和做回归上为本文的写作提供了重要帮助，作者深表感谢。
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